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Our future, our universe, and other weighty topics


Thursday, January 9, 2025

Two 2024 Nobel Prize Press Releases Misinformed Us Badly

In a previous post entitled "Misleading Statements in a Recent Nobel Prize Announcement" I analyzed quite a few misleading statements in the press release (and a supplementary document of that release) issued by a  Nobel Prize committee announcing the year 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. The press release I discussed was not the only misleading press release issued in 2024 by a Nobel Prize committee. There were also bad errors in the press release announcing the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine. 

In its second sentence that press release contained this piece of fiction: "The information stored within our chromosomes can be likened to an instruction manual for all cells in our body."  The information referred to is DNA, also called the genome. DNA consists mainly of genes. But neither DNA nor its genes contain any such thing as an instruction manual for cells. DNA has no specification of how to build a cell or any of its organelles, or how to maintain or correctly position any cells.  DNA does not even specify how to construct the protein complexes that make up organelles. 

The level of organization in the body is as follows: a body consists mainly of organ systems and a skeletal system; organ systems are built mainly from organs; organs are built from tissues; tissues are built from cells; cells are built from many types of organelles; organelles are built mainly from proteins complexes; protein complexes are built from proteins; and proteins are built from amino acids. The chromosome and its DNA does not have any specification of how to construct any of these levels higher than protein molecules. So it is a huge falsehood to claim that "the information stored within our chromosomes can be likened to an instruction manual for all cells in our body."  DNA does not tell how to make a cell or any of the main components of a cell; and DNA does not tell cells how to act or where they should go in the body. 

The Nobel Prize press release contained the following paragraph. I will put the false statements in boldface underline:

"The information stored within our chromosomes can be likened to an instruction manual for all cells in our body. Every cell contains the same chromosomes, so every cell contains exactly the same set of genes and exactly the same set of instructions. Yet, different cell types, such as muscle and nerve cells, have very distinct characteristics. How do these differences arise? The answer lies in gene regulation, which allows each cell to select only the relevant instructions. This ensures that only the correct set of genes is active in each cell type."

No, gene regulation does not constitute even a half-explanation of why we end up with different cell types.  Gene regulation refers to a cell's use or non-use of certain types of proteins. But that does not even half-explain why the human body has 200 different types of cells, with so many different functions, structures and characteristics. Similarly, if there were some person traveling to different construction sites, and merely saying things such as "use copper pipes" and "don't use cinder blocks" and "use steel beams" and "don't use wood 2 by 4's," that would never explain how one construction site might produce a stone church and another construction site might produce a mansion and another construction site might produce a shopping mall. Nowhere in chromosomes or DNA are there any instructions for building a cell or any of its organelle components, and neither chromosomes nor DNA nor its genes has any instructions on how to maintain, position or reproduce a cell. 

The press release in question announced the awarding of a Nobel Prize for the discovery of a microRNA  by Victor Ambros and Gary Ruvkun. A microRNA is a very tiny chemical unit that is only 18 to 25 nucleotides. About 1000 microRNA molecules have been discovered.  Molecules so small with so little information are utterly incapable of explaining the vast mystery of why there arises so many different types of enormously complex cells specialized for different biological purposes. 

The Nobel Prize press release I am discussing gives us the extremely misleading visual below:

biology complexity misrepresentation

The diagram above misleads us badly in three different ways. First, it omits two different layers of organization, and gives us the profoundly misleading idea that cells are directly made from proteins. The truth is that cells are made from extremely complex components called organelles, which are built from extremely complex protein complexes, which are built from protein molecules.  Second, the diagram misleads us badly by giving us a visual suggesting  that cells are very simple. We see a cell that has only a few organelles.  The truth is that human cells typically contain very many thousands of organelles. Third, the diagram makes proteins look like very simple things with only a few parts. Human proteins have an average of about 450 amino acids each, which must be very specially arranged for them to perform their functions. 

Schematic diagrams of cells are constantly misleading us by depicting cells with only a few organelles. Specifically:

  • A cell diagram will typically depict a cell as having only one or a few mitochondria, but human cells typically have many thousands of mitochondria, as many as a million.
  • A cell diagram will typically depict a cell as having only only one or a few lysosomes, but human cells typically have hundreds of lysosomes.
  • A cell diagram will typically depict a cell as having only a few ribosomes, but a human cell may have up to 10 million ribosomes.
  • A cell diagram will typically depict one or a few stacks of a Golgi apparatus, each with only a few cisternae. But a cell will typically have between 10 and 20 stacks, each having as many as 60 cisternae.
  • A cell diagram will rarely even depict a microtubule, although according to the paper here "cells can contain from just a few to many hundreds of microtubules (Aikawa, 1971; Osborn & Weber, 1976)." 
  • The membranes of cells are extremely complicated structures, consisting of four layers, with each layer being populated by many types of proteins each consisting of hundreds of well-arranged parts.  Some of this complexity could easily be shown by a "closeup circle" in a cell diagram, showing a closeup of part of the membrane.  But we rarely see any such depiction of the complexity of the cell membrane,  and cell diagrams almost always have cell membranes depicted as featureless things looking as simple as the surface of a balloon. 
  • The cytosol of a cell is typically depicted as if it were a simple fluid like water. But the cytosol is actually loaded with many types of complex protein molecules needed for cell function. 

There is no excuse for the continuation of misleading cell diagrams in the literature of biology. For the past twenty years it has been easy to use computer graphics to make very sophisticated high-resolution diagrams capable of properly representing the complexity of cells. But almost no one is creating such diagrams, and we continue to see most cell diagrams looking like something hand-painted in the 1950's.  

The type of cell diagrams we usually see in biology literature are misrepresentations as absurd as trying to depict gigantic skyscrapers like the Empire State Building or the 828-meter-tall Burj Khalifa tower  by using ridiculously simplistic diagrams like this:


We get more very misleading talk later in the Nobel Prize press release with this statement:

"Gene regulation by microRNA, first revealed by Ambros and Ruvkun, has been at work for hundreds of millions of years. This mechanism has enabled the evolution of increasingly complex organisms."

The word "enable" means "give (someone or something) the authority or means to do something." The biological and chemical requirements for complex organisms are endless and ubiquitous, and most involve things vastly more complex than microRNA molecules, which are very small molecules. So to claim that mere microRNAs  "enabled the evolution of increasingly complex organisms" is to misspeak badly.  A correct statement would be that microRNAs are some of the least complex of the enormously high number of things needed for the appearance of organisms as complex as humans. 

The diagram below correctly describes the levels of organization in the human body, and tells us what is not specified by DNA. 

what DNA does not specify

We have in this Nobel Prize press release and its diagram a repetition of one of the most misleading claims of biologists between 1975 and 2024: the groundless claim that genes contain programs for development. DNA is not a program, and the genes that make up DNA are not any program that forms organisms. DNA does not have any of the control structures (such as if/then statements) found in computer programs. DNA does not specify the growth of an organism, and does not know or state anything about organisms or their cells. 

Professor Massimo Pigliucci (mainstream author of numerous scientific papers on evolution) has stated  that "old-fashioned metaphors like genetic blueprint and genetic programme are not only woefully inadequate but positively misleading." In the book Mind in Life by Evan Thompson (published by the Belknap Press of Harvard University Press) we read the following on page 180: "The plain truth is that DNA is not a program for building organisms, as several authors have shown in detail (Keller 2000, Lewontin 1993, Moss 2003)."  Developmental biologist C/H. Waddington stated, "The DNA is not a program or sequentially accessed control over the behavior of the cell." On the web site of the well-known biologist Denis Noble, we read that "the whole idea that genes contain the recipe or the program of life is absurd, according to Noble," and that we should understand DNA "not so much as a recipe or a program, but rather as a database that is used by the tissues and organs in order to make the proteins which they need." A paper by cell biologist Stuart A. Newman states,  "It would be unfortunate if we find ourselves having emerged from a period of misconceived genetic program metaphors only to land in a brave new world captivated by equally misguided ones about self-organization."

Part of the press release helps reveal the utter inadequacy of anything discovered by the awarded scientists to explain the mountain-sized mystery of cell differentiation. We read this: "Ambros and Ruvkun performed further experiments showing that the lin-4 microRNA turns off lin-14 by binding to the complementary sequences in its mRNA, blocking the production of lin-14 protein."  These guys merely found 
an off-switch for a particular protein. That cannot be more than just the tiniest piece in a gigantic puzzle with thousands of missing pieces, since cells use 20,000+ proteins, and since off-switches can't explain 200 very diverse types of enormous organization as we see in cells. And since tiny little microRNAs don't even have as much information as found on a single sentence of this post, it's pretty laughable to be elevating them to be things explaining the variety of human cells, things far more complex than any blog post I've ever written. 

The false claim made by the Nobel Prize press release (that gene regulation or gene expression explains why we have 200 different types of cells with vastly different sizes, structures, locations and functions) has been stated by many sources. False information about genes and DNA is super-abundant in the literature of biology, where groundless fictions about DNA have been steadily told for 75 years. The main reason such misinformation has been passed around in my post here. The same post quotes dozens of scientists and doctors who told us the truth about such matters, telling us that DNA is no blueprint, recipe or program for building a body or any of its cells. 

A phrase such as "gene expression" or "gene regulation" is vacuous as an explanation for why cells have different structures and different locations and why they use different proteins. Gene expression refers to what proteins a cell uses and how often they are used. Rather than being an explanation for why different cells are different, the phrase "gene expression" is one aspect of how they are different.  Appealing to "gene expression" as an explanation for why two cells are different is as vacuous as answering a question of "how come a computer is arranged differently from a refrigerator" by saying "because they have different parts in different places." Similarly the term "gene regulation" refers to a large variety of different complicated factors that differ when different cells end up with different concentrations of proteins.  But as an explanation for why two cells are different, the phrase "gene regulation" is as vacuous as trying to answer the question of "how come a computer is arranged differently from a refrigerator" by using a phrase such as "part placement differences." Having within it no concept or specification of a cell, DNA has no "gene regulator" controlling how many proteins of different types go into particular cells. Instead of referring to one discrete thing, the term "gene regulation" refers to dozens of scattered little things that differ when different types of cells arise.  Appealing to "gene regulation" as an explanation is as vacuous as trying to explain why a cathedral looks different from a factory by appealing to "assembly differences"  or "construction methodology." When used as an attempted explanation, the obscure phrase "gene regulation" is an example of hand-waving. Different gene regulation in different cells is one aspect of different cells being different, not an explanation of why they are different. 

As shown by this post and a previous post of mine, the year 2024 has proven that we should have no great confidence in the claims made by press releases announcing Nobel Prize awards. Nobel Prize press releases should be treated with the same suspicion and critical scrutiny we should have for university press releases announcing science research. Such press releases are very often guilty of very bad groundless boasting and misleading claims. 

Earlier in this century a biologist spoke truthfully about how little biologists understand cells, stating this:

"Cell biology is a mystery for many reasons one
of which is the lack of basic knowledge. This may
be the fault of scientists or simply a failure in basic
information at the level of common contemporary
knowledge. The well known sentence of Socrates:
'I know that I know nothing' is as true in cell
biology as in other scientific fields. This sentence
was modified by Lloyd in 1986 who claimed: 'The
closer we look, the less we see'. I would like to
modify this sentence yet again as a cell biologist and
microscopist: 'The closer we look, the less we know
about.' ... Everyone involved in cell
biology, is surprised how limited is our knowledge
about the various cell compartments....It should now be mentioned that our knowledge even of basic cell organelles, including their various functions, is very limited....We know something about cell organelles, including various nuclear compartments, but most of their functions are waiting for further and better clarification....Depending on conditions, selected genes may be repressed or derepressed and activated giving to rise to the particular cell lineage with characteristic cell structures and functions. On the other hand, such transformations, including the homing of the transformed cells are also very mysterious although both these processes are empirically used in clinical medicine."

A year 2022 statement by Intel claims that some analysis technique is "beginning to unravel the mystery of cell differentiation." In general when scientists say that they are merely "beginning to unravel" some great mystery, it is a confession that the mystery is still very much not understood by them. Humans don't understand how different cell types arise in the human body, contrary to the boast of the Nobel Prize committee that this is explained by "gene regulation." In 2019 two scientists confessed, "We have little understanding of the processes that allow cells to become different"  (link).

cell differentiation

In the Nobel Prize press release I have criticized, there is a link to some speech given describing the 2024 award for the Nobel Prize in Medicine and Physiology.  The speech gives us a very clumsy analogy in which the construction of a cell is compared to the performance of some symphony, and individual genes are compared to instrument players. The analogy is inappropriate because musicians work with a musical score exactly specifying how a symphony should sound, but DNA and its genes are nothing like a specification of any cell or any organ or any adult body. We read this:

"MicroRNAs are conductors with a special ability. Instead of passionately making gestures to either amplify or dampen music intensity, microRNAs tell musicians only when to quiet down or take a break. ‘You there, play softer! You, take a break!’ "

It's obvious from this analogy that individual MicroRNAs are mere "bit players" or minor cogs in the gigantically complicated process by which enormously organized cells are originated and vastly organized organism bodies are constructed. The awarded discovery merely involves finding one piece in a gigantic jigsaw puzzle which has almost all of its pieces still undiscovered, as illustrated in the visual below. 

current state of developmental biology
 
In many of these cases that are hailed as progress in understanding things, there may be no real progress at all, but just some explanatory "robbing Peter to pay Paul." For example, let us suppose that there is some gene which has its rate of expression slowed down at some particular point in some type of cell. Let us suppose that someone postulates that this occurred because some microRNA sent a message at some point telling the gene  to slow down.  That's just a mere speck of explanatory progress. We've simply gone from "how did the gene know to slow down at this particular time in this particular cell?" to the equally great mystery of "how did the microRNA know that it should signal the gene to slow down at this particular time in this particular cell?"  The problem is that DNA has no actual specification of cells or the organelles that make up cells. So from a mechanistic or reductionist standpoint, none of these chemicals should know anything about what it should be doing at a particular time to help achieve some grand result such as the construction of a particular type of vastly organized cell, or its placement in the correct position in a human body. 

Auto-Scheduling of Future Posts on This Site

I have good news for readers of this blog and another blog site of mine. I have written more than 200 posts that I have auto-scheduled for future publication, all written without any help from AI writing tools. That means even if I get run over by a bus tomorrow, you will still be able to read my carefully written new posts on this blog for at least the next 19 months. Such posts will be published at my current publishing schedule of one new post on this blog every four days. 

In addition, I have more than a full year of new posts auto-scheduled for future publication on my site below, which publishes about once a week:

https://headtruth.blogspot.com/

From time to time I will be rearranging the publication of a future scheduled post to allow for the appearance of recently written posts that may be responses to recent events, recent scientific papers, recent articles in the press, and so forth. 

Should you ever hear of my untimely demise at some future date, followed by many additional posts being published on my sites, you can still be sure that whatever you read was written by me. It will simply be a  case of some of my previously written posts being published for the first time, by means of the auto-scheduling facility of the Blogger system that allows you to schedule posts for future publication. 

Postscript: At about the summer of 2025 I increased the publication rate mentioned above, figuring that I might as well do that with so many posts yet to be published. My Future and Cosmos blog is now publishing at a rate of once every three days, and my Head Truth blog is now publishing about twice a week. 

Sunday, January 5, 2025

Using Binomial Probability Calculators to Clarify the Strength of Telepathy Test Results

There is a huge body of literature collectively proving the reality of extrasensory perception (ESP), also called telepathy. Unfortunately much of the literature is written by writers who failed to effectively communicate how improbable it is the results they reported could be explained by chance. There is no excuse for an ESP investigator to fail to clearly explain the improbability of very improbable results that he got. Such an investigator is already climbing a steep hill that results from the senseless stubbornness of people who refuse to accept observational results they cannot explain under their presumptions. If the investigator wants to convince people, he needs to clearly communicate exactly how improbable are the improbable results he  achieved. 

For example, if you are an ESP experimenter who had people guess the colors of randomly selected playing cards, and you got a result of 496 successes our of 830 trials, it is not at all sufficient to merely point out that such a result is 81 successes more than expected by chance.  A reader may not realize that such a result should be expected on less than 1 in a million trials. 

Luckily nowadays there is a type of online tool you can use to help clarify what the probability was when extremely unlikely results were achieved.  The tool is called a binomial probability calculator.  The tool is easy to use, and typically involves three inputs: 

(1) The number of trials.

(2) The chance of success on any trial.

(3) How many successes occurred. 

Using a binomial probability calculator, you can type in all of these numbers, and press a button, typically marked "Calculate" or "Compute." You then will be given some results that clarify how likely such a result was. 

You can find such calculators by typing "binomial probability calculator" into a search engine. The first result that will come up is the Stat Trek binomial probability calculator available here.  This calculator works well for calculating improbabilities that are not too small. But the Stat Trek binomial probability calculator has the imperfection that it reports extremely low probabilities as being zero. 

I can give an example. Let us imagine an ESP test in which people are asked to guess the color of 830 playing cards randomly chosen at some interval in a shuffled deck in another room. Suppose there are 472 correct guesses. If you put the corresponding numbers into the Stat Trek binomial probability calculator, you will get the result shown below:

On the last row the calculator shows the chance of getting a result greater than or equal to 472 is only about .00004.  But imagine if you change the "number of successes" input to be 496, which was the actual result in an ESP test reported here. Now, the Stat Trek calculator will incorrectly claim that there was a zero chance of such a result:


This is not quite right, because the probability of such a result is very low, but not zero. To get the correct result, you will need to use a different binomial probability calculator, such as the one at www.wolfframalpha.com. 

The binomial probability calculator at that site can be found here. The calculator has a rather confusing appearance. Rather than an input labeled as "number of successes," we have an input confusingly labeled as "endpoint."  When using the calculator, it is best to put in the number of successes in the "endpoint" slot, subtracting 1 from the actual number of successes. Here is the result of using the calculator with the example above:

successful ESP test

Now we have (in the last row) a page correctly telling us about the unlikelihood of the reported result. (If you don't understand the way the calculator expresses these very low probabilities, look up the topic of scientific notation, finding a page like this one.) In an ESP test in which people are asked to guess the color of 830 playing cards randomly chosen in a shuffled deck in another room, at particular intervals, the chance of getting 495 or more successful guesses is 1 in 1.038 times 10 to the eighth power, about 1 in 100 million. This is exactly the result reported in row 1 of the table you can see using the link here. The table is shown below:

successful ESP test

The results were published in 1927 by Professor G. H. Estabrooks, professor of psychology at Colgate University. The technique used to get these results is described at the link here and in the next several pages you can read using that link. The results were produced using a variety of subjects, with the tested subject and the card drawer in adjacent rooms that were separated by a closed door. A signal that it was time to guess the suit or the color of the card was sent by a telegraph-like apparatus. 

The tests above show a kind of "fatigue" effect, in which the guesses are more likely to be true at the beginning than the end. I am not at all surprised to read of such a result.  In my post "How to Test ESP or Telepathy Using Your Friends or Family Members," I recommend doing very short tests allowing three or four guesses, over multiple days, without the test ever lasting more than a few minutes. Such a method is best to avoid the "fatigue" effect shown above. I have sometimes got great success in informal brief tests of ESP using family members, which I describe in my post here. 

Here is the result I get using the www.wolfframalpha.com binomial probability calculator to calculate the first row of Table 2 shown in the visual above. 

binomial probability calculation
 
We have the calculation that when guessing the suits (diamonds, spades, clubs or hearts) of 830 shuffled cards, the probability of getting more than 255 successes is .000083. 

The two probabilities are independent; in other words, the probability of getting the first result by chance does not affect the probability of getting the second result by chance. A chief rule of probability calculation is that when you have two independent results with a probability of x and y, the probability of getting both of them (in two consecutive trials) is x times y.  For example, the probability of drawing the ace of spades twice in a row from a newly shuffled full deck is 1 in 52 times 1 in 52, or 1 in 2704. Using this rule we can calculate that the chance of getting both the result in the first row of Table 1 shown above and the result in the first row of Table 2 shown above is roughly 1 in 100 million multiplied by .000083, which equals .0000000000008 or roughly 1 in a trillion (1 in 1,000,000,000,000). That's a result we never would expect to get by chance in any of the formal academic ESP tests ever done, since the number of tests done is relatively small, much less than 1 million. It's a level of success we would not expect to get from mere chance even once if every person on Earth was tested for their telepathy ability five different times.

The results in the table above are by not by any means the most impressive ESP tests ever produced. Vastly more impressive results are reported here and here and here. The laboratory evidence for ESP is overwhelming, and binomial probability calculators help to clarify how strong such evidence is. 

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

Scientists Saying "It Was Just a Hallucination" Are Like a Cheating Husband Telling a Wife She Hallucinated

 

Wife: Who was that half-naked  woman I just saw running down the stairs of our house as  I entered?

Cheating husband: No, you couldn't have seen that.

Wife: Why not?

Cheating husband:  Because I am a faithful husband who never cheats on his wife. 

Wife: So how come I saw that half-naked  woman who ran down the stairs of our house as  I entered?

Cheating husband: You must have just been hallucinating.

Wife: But I even talked with her, demanding she explain herself. She gave some crazy story that she accidentally walked into the wrong house, and started to take off her clothes so she could shower. 

Cheating husband:  It must have been a simultaneous auditory and visual hallucination. 

Wife: But I'm a perfectly sane person, not someone who hallucinates. And I've asked the neighbors, and they say they keep seeing scantily clad women exiting our house.

Cheating husband: All of those people must have also been hallucinating.

Wife: But I talked to three people who all saw a scantily clad women exiting our house last Sunday.

Cheating husband: That must have been a coincidence, in which more than one person hallucinated exactly the same thing. 


Wife: But what about those strange woman's panties I sometimes find under our bed? They are not any panties I ever bought.

Cheating husband:  You can't have seen that, because I'm a totally faithful husband. 


Wife So why did I see such panties not just once, but several times?

Cheating husband:  It must have been another one of your hallucinations. 

Wife:  I asked the clerks at the local motels. They say you keep renting motel rooms while you're with some blonde woman much younger than me. 

Cheating husband:  All of them must be hallucinating, and coincidentally having the same hallucination. 

Wife: So just coincidentally all of these people including me are having all these different hallucinations that all  seem to give the false idea that you are cheating on me?

Cheating husband: Exactly. 

Wife: How very convenient, that whenever someone reports seeing evidence of your adultery, you always just say that they were hallucinating!

Layman: I saw my deceased mother's ghost today.


Materialist scientist: No, you couldn't have seen that.


Layman: Why not?

Materialist scientist: Because people are just brains, so when the brain dies, you die forever.

Layman: So how come I saw my mother's ghost?



Materialist scientist: You must have just been hallucinating.

Layman:  But I had a long conversation with my mother's ghost.  And the president of a major university reported that he had many long conversations with his wife's ghost. 


Materialist scientist:  It must have been a simultaneous auditory and visual hallucination.

Layman: But I'm a perfectly sane person, not someone who hallucinates. And very many other people have reported seeing the same thing I saw  -- a ghost of their relative.

Materialist scientist: All those people must have also been hallucinating.


Layman:  There are many cases in which multiple witnesses see the same apparition. 


Materialist scientist: That must have been a coincidence, in which more than one person hallucinated exactly the same thing. 

Layman: I talked to my friend. He said that when he almost died in a heart attack, he floated out of his body, and could see his whole body from two meters above.

Materialist scientist: That could not have happened, because each person is just a brain, not some soul that can leave the body.

Layman: So why did my friend say he saw that?


Materialist scientist: He must have just been hallucinating.

Layman: But many other people also report leaving their bodies in out-of-body experiences. And sometimes they see things they would never have seen if they stayed in their bodies, with the observations verified by others. 

Materialist scientist: All of them must be hallucinating, and coincidentally having the same hallucination. 

Layman: So just coincidentally all of these people including me are having all these different hallucinations that all  seem to give the false idea that we are souls that can survive death and leave our bodies?

Materialist scientist: Exactly. 

Layman: How very convenient, that whenever someone reports seeing something that discredits your materialist beliefs, you always just say that they were hallucinating!

stubborn professor