The Mounting Evidence for Terminal Lucidity

In my October 2025 post "Terminal Lucidity Helps to Discredit Claims That Brains Make Minds" (which you can read here) I discussed dramatic cases of terminal lucidity.  The term "terminal lucidity" can be defined in two different ways:

(1) a case in which someone who had seemed to largely lose his mental faculties suddenly regains such faculties very near the end of his life, typically on the last day of his life;

(2) a case in which someone with extremely high brain damage retained his mental faculties to the end of his life. 

Reports of terminal lucidity appeared as early as 1936, as shown in the 1936 article below (from page 603 of the September 17, 1936 edition of the journal Light).

In my post I discussed the first six of the 13 reports of terminal lucidity I will discuss in this post (some of which involve multiple cases):

(1) On page 603 of the September 17, 1936 edition of the journal Light, which you can read here,  we read this: "The Rev. Cruwys Sharland related how a one-time pupil of his, after suffering for many years from disintegration of the brain, when approaching his death, suddenly recovered complete mental control and gave those present a long circumstantial account of a walking tour he had undertaken when quite a boy, in company with Mr. Sharland, then his tutor. Every detail was correct, every fact rightly placed, as Mr. Sharland himself testified. "

(2) On the same page 603 of the September 17, 1936 edition of the journal Light, which you can read here,  we read this: "M. G. W. Surya writes of a friend of his who was summoned to the asylum in which his brother had for years been confined with complete softening of the brain. He found his brother perfectly normal and anxious to make certain suggestions to him. He died the same day, and autopsy revealed that the brain had entirely disintegrated.....Similarly, the well-known Berlin anatomist, Benecke, assured his students that Schinkel, the architect, died in possession of all his faculties, in spite of the fact that his cranium was subsequently proved to have been, ' so to speak, empty.' ” 

(3) At the bottom of page 79 of the book you can read using the link here, we have an account by a person who says this about her grandmother: "An hour before she passed, this old lady suddenly woke up from the stupor that she had been in for six long years." We then hear an account of the grandmother speaking well, and acting as if she saw apparitions of the dead (a common occurrence for the dying, even those without any brain problems). 

(4) On page 410 of the book Irreducible Mind we read this:  

"Myers (1892b) had referred to the 'sudden revivals of memory or faculty in dying persons' (p.316)...The eminent physician Benjamin Rush...observed that 'most of mad people discover a greater or less degree of reason in the last days or hours of their lives' (p. 257). Similarly, in his classic study of hallucinations, Brierre de Boismont (1859) noted that 'at the approach of death we observed that ... the intellect, which may have been obscured or extinguished during many years, is again restored in all its integrity' (p. 236). Flournoy (1903, p. 48) mentioned that French psychiatrists had recently published cases of mentally ill persons who showed sudden improvements in their condition shortly before death. In more recent years, Osis (1961) reported two cases, 'one of severe schizophrenia and one of senility, [in which] the patients regained normal mentality shortly before death' (p. 24)." 

(5) The paper "End-of-Life Experiences and the Dying Process in a Gloucestershire Nursing Home as Reported by Nurses and Care Assistants" is one that  asked questions of workers at  Kingsley House, a small facility handling no more than 31 persons at a time, and reporting only about 13 deaths per year. We read of these results, coming from the ten who responded: "7 reported unconscious or confused residents who unexpectedly became lucid enough just before they died to interact with relatives and carers," a phenomena sometimes called 'terminal lucidity.' "

(6) The year 2021 scientific paper "Spontaneous Remission of Dementia Before Death: Results From a Study on Paradoxical Lucidity" discusses many cases of terminal lucidity.  We read this:

" Detailed case reports of 124 dementia patients who experienced an episode of paradoxical lucidity were received. In more than 80% of these cases, complete remission with return of memory, orientation, and responsive verbal ability was reported by observers

of the lucid episode. The majority of patients died within hours to days after the episode..... More than 80% of the patients in this study appeared to have experienced a full, albeit brief, reversal of often profound cognitive impairment in advanced and end-stage dementia."

In the paper we read this: "Macleod (2009) observed 100 consecutive deaths in a hospice in New Zealand and found six cases of unexpected, spontaneous return of cognitive functions and verbal ability within 48 hr before the death of the patient."

(7) Recently there was published the paper "Terminal Lucidity in a Pediatric Oncology Clinic," which reported some similar cases of terminal lucidity. You can read the full paper here. One or more of the  authors interviewed the physicians involved in the cases.  Before discussing its fascinating account of terminal lucidity in a patient identified as Patient One, I should mention that the term "encephalopathic" typically refers to a severe brain pathology, most often involving a brain infection or a failure of the immune system to protect the brain from infection. In the paper we read this about this Patient One:

"The patient was a three-year-old Hispanic female with prolonged medical treatment history for her diagnosis of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), a complex and often life-threatening medical condition resulting from an uncontrolled and ineffective immune response, leading to extreme inflammation in many organs/tissues. After over a year of intense treatments, she underwent an umbilical cord blood transplant, which is the only known cure for this condition. Unfortunately, the transplant was rejected, and while attempts were made to find another option for a second transplant, she had a re-emergence of her HLH and was admitted to the hospital for chemotherapy and immunotherapy. Despite some initial improvements, she developed progressive organ damage and deterioration over the next several weeks, prompting transfer to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), with worsening liver and pulmonary failure. She became severely jaundiced and encephalopathic, and was no longer speaking, eating, or responding to parents/providers. The ICU physicians were worried that she was an aspiration risk, prompting intensification of Do Not Resuscitate/Do Not Intubate (DNR/DNI) conversations with her parents. As all the known treatments available were exhausted and her condition worsened, the focus shifted to providing palliative care. Although initially resistant, after nearly two weeks of intense conversations with parents (including family members and a Catholic priest) and further deterioration in their daughter’s condition, a DNI and modified DNR status change was agreed. That evening, the patient awoke and asked for her usual comfort items (i.e., Lion King movie, parents, toys) and food. She showed no indication of mental impairment and regained the ability to sit up in bed and participate in coloring and other simple age-appropriate tasks. She spoke using logical, organized full sentences, and had multiple conversations with her parents that evening, which they and the bedside nurse described as 'like a miracle.' During the conversations with her parents, she reviewed all the important people in her life and prayed for them. She indicated awareness of transitioning to death and reassured loved ones of the need not to be concerned about her. She also seemed to be communicating with people who were not visible to others. After several hours, she asked to 'go to bed' and returned to her comatose state. During the next 24-48 hours, she never awoke again, and she ultimately died peacefully of cardiac arrest in her parents’ arms."

(8) In the same paper we read of a Patient Three:

"The patient was a 19-month-old boy who underwent a bone marrow transplant at 16 months of age for ill-defined immune deficiency. He was recovering with typical transplant complications until he developed fevers and progressive neurologic symptoms with loss of ability to communicate, loss of motor function, and loss of cognition.... Prior to the lucid event, he was not responding to healthcare providers and was giving parents only minimal response/eye contact. Three days prior to his death, he became much more alert and interactive, in stark contrast to his steady decline of the prior three months, which was preceded by his parents having decided they would not proceed with further life-saving medical interventions (i.e., surgeries, intubation, etc.). He was noted to be able to move, talk, eat, and communicate for 24-48 hours prior to a rapid decline and death. On the night before his death, he communicated with his parents that he 'was ready to go home' and that 'he and parents would be OK' using verbal and sign language. He talked about joining his brother who was a still-birth, and he told his parents he was going to be fine. Subsequently, he returned to severe mental impairment and died within 24 hours."

A new paper was recently published providing some additional examples of terminal lucidity.  The paper (which you can read here) is entitled "Terminal Lucidity in Children: A Contemporary Case Collection." The paper's cases include these cases:

(9) Case #2 of the paper was a 9-year-old male who had suffered from leukemia for 1-2 years, which had resulted in "severe" mental impairment (apparently much worse than the "mild" mental impairment reported for Case #1). In his last 1 or 2 hours, he experienced a big change from his long previous state of being semicomatose, nonresponsive and mumbling. He "regained awareness of surroundings," "regained ability to speak with others in logical, organized sentences," had "awareness of impending death, but no fear," and "reassured loved ones and said “ 'goodbye.' " His mental impairment suddenly improved from "severe" to "none,"  He also acted as if interacting with deceased loved ones not visible to others. This lasted between 10 to 59 minutes, and within 2 hours of the start of such lucidity, he was dead. 

(10) Case #3 of  the paper was a 7-year-old female who had suffered from leukemia. In her last hour or two her mental impairment improved from "severe" to "none."  Shaking off a semicomatose state, she "regained awareness of surroundings," "regained ability to recognize and interact with others," "regained ability to speak in logical, organized, complete sentences," and had "awareness of impending death." She also acted as if interacting with deceased loved ones not visible to others. This lasted between 10 to 59 minutes, and within an hours of the start of such lucidity, she was dead. 

(11) Case #6 of  the paper was a 16-year-old male suffering from chronic kidney failure, and also very bad seizures. In the 2-5 days before death his mental impairment went from "severe" to "none." He "regained awareness of surroundings," "recognized and interacted with others," "seemed to have a sense of peace and acceptance of his situation," "demonstrated greater clarity" and acted as if he had "met deceased others." We read this: "One week after going into the coma, he returned to a waking state and appeared to have full consciousness. My parents and the medical staff were completely taken aback by his clarity."

(12) Case #7 of  the paper was a male child suffering from chronic kidney failure. At some point in the hour before death (for about an hour) his mental impairment went from "severe" to "none." He "regained awareness of surroundings," "recognized and interacted with others," "regained ability to understand spoken language," and acted as if he had "communicated with deceased others." 

(13) In the paper here, we read of a case of terminal lucidity:

"The person had a diagnosis of mixed Alzheimer’s disease and Cerebrovascular Accident with severe cognitive impairment. The lucidity episode was observed by the therapist and family and lasted 1–3 minutes. The person was reported to have been noncommunicative with restricted or no speech and could not convey her needs. Her limited verbal responses were completely off-point. During a visit by family, the person was suddenly able to communicate and respond appropriately. She talked about significant people, places, and life events that family remembered, both positive and negative. There was an increase in clarity of thought and the person suddenly remembered how to play an instrument. The person died one week later."

---

The paper here studied 92 patients with severe dementia and difficulties with verbal communication, and found that 57% of them displayed "episodes of lucidity" or EL. 

A phenomenon related to terminal lucidity is the phenomenon of deathbed visions, often involving someone on his deathbed claiming to see an apparition or vision of a deceased person, or such a person experiencing a vision of some otherworldly realm or landscape.  The recent paper on terminal lucidity notes a high overlap between terminal lucidity and deathbed visions. It states this:

"An intriguing feature that many children reported, which is also consistent with descriptions of lucidity in adult samples, is the presence of and communicating with nonvisible entities, a phenomenon known as deathbed visions (Barbato, 2024; Claxton-Oldfield, 2024; Fenwick & Fenwick, 2008; Fountain & Kellehear, 2012; Houran & Lange, 1997). Ten of our child cases appeared to experience deathbed visions as part of their TL [terminal lucidity] episode, suggesting a synchronous relationship between these phenomena."

The following account of a deathbed vision was published in 1921:

Biological Variations Can't Even Yield a Tenth of a Complex Survival-Improving Biological Innovation

It is amazing how little honest progress has been made in the thinking of scientists about evolution.  Since the time of Darwin in the 19th century, there has occurred basically no honest progress in the explanation that evolutionary biologists give to explain the more impressive wonders of biology. 

There did occur quite a lot of what can be called "dishonest progress" in the narrative of evolutionary biologists. The "dishonest progress" occurred  around the middle of the twentieth century by the creation of a phony story that each human has within each of his cells a DNA blueprint for how to build the human body.  Such a thing might have been called a recipe or a program or a specification for making the human body. The bogus story that started to be told around the year 1950 was that each human has in his DNA a specification for making the human body. This idea was linked in to evolution theory.  We were told that evolution occurs by the modification of such a DNA blueprint. So, according to this story, the reason why some chimp-like species changed gradually to become our species is that over many years there was a gradual change in DNA. 

The "DNA as body blueprint" story was all a big lie, one of the most appalling lies that human beings have ever told.  There never was the slightest evidence that DNA has a blueprint, a recipe, a program or a specification for making a human body.  All that ever was discovered in DNA was low-level chemical information, such as which amino acids are contained in particular protein molecules.  By now the contents of DNA have been very thoroughly analyzed by major multi-year projects such as the Human Genome Project, and no one ever found in DNA or its genes anything like a blueprint, a recipe, a program or a specification for making a human body or any of its organs or cells. The fact that DNA is not any blueprint, recipe or program for making a human body has been confessed by dozens of biology and chemistry authorities I quote at the end of my post here.  

The idea that human bodies get built by the reading of a DNA blueprint was always a very childish lie, for the simple reason that blueprints don't build things.  Things get built using blueprints only when intelligent agents use blueprints to get ideas about how to build things. Why did so many of the population buy the childish myth that human bodies arise from the reading of a DNA blueprint? Because nowadays scientists are the priests of our culture, and people will believe the most childish myths when such stories are told by scientists. 

Excluding the lie that the bodies of organisms arise from the reading of DNA blueprints, a narrative that can be called "dishonest progress," there has been no appreciable honest progress in the story that biologists tell when trying to explain how evolution could produce the wonders of biology.  I could insert here quotes from the writings of many biologists attempting to explain how evolution could have produced the wonders of biology, quotes in which they are attempting to use explanations that are basically the same as Charles Darwin offered in 1859.  Human knowledge of the facts of biology has made the most dramatic leaps forward since 1859, but biologists are still using an 1859 explanation for how we got here.  It's kind of like the situation that would exist if you went into a modern hospital feeling very sick, and the doctors said, "You have too much blood -- we will get leeches to suck out some of your blood," as doctors might have done hundreds of years ago. 

The original Darwinian explanation of evolution relies very much on a vague use of the word "variations." The explanation goes like this:

"(1) When new members of a species are born, there are variations, with some members being different. 

(2) If a member of a species is born with a useful variation that increases his chance of survival and reproduction, that member will be more likely to survive and reproduce.

(3) Therefore useful variations will tend to be preserved, and a species may gradually accumulate useful variations that gradually occurred over many years. 

(4) By the accumulation of such variations, nature produces new species that have new features and nature produces new wonders of biology such as new types of organs and new types of appendages."

There are certain key features that we almost always find in these types of explanations:

(1) Almost always the person giving the explanation fails to describe the enormous organization and functional complexity of organisms.  We will not be told the all-important truth that substantive innovation in biological organisms requires new types of very complex inventions which typically require a special arrangement of very many parts. 

(2)  Almost always the person giving the explanation fails to speak precisely about biological variations, and uses that term in the wooliest and vaguest way. 

Let us take a precise look at biological variations. The idea can be best understand using the modern mathematical idea of a bell-shaped curve. A bell-shaped curve (also called a normal distribution) is a curve plotting variations from an average.  Below is a graph roughly representing variations in human male height.

You could create similar graphs for various human attributes: weight, speed, intelligence, vision ability and so forth. When a new member of a species is born, it may have some particular attribute that is somewhere on such a bell-shaped curve.  Such things can be called biological variations. 

Do such variations help to explain the appearance of new wonders in biology? No, they don't. The reason is that new wonders of biology require complex biological innovations, or what can be called complex biological inventions.  Complex biological inventions require very special new arrangements of very many parts, to achieve some particular end. Such things cannot be yielded by mere biological variations. 

Let us look at some of the types of biological inventions that have appeared in the history of our planet:

(1) One major type of biological invention is a new type of protein molecule. Within the human body are more than 20,000 different types of protein molecules, each a separate type of very complex invention requiring a special new arrangement of thousands of atoms. 

(2) Another major type of biological invention are protein complexes which may consist of quite a few different types of protein molecules arranged in a special way to achieve some biological end. Many of these protein complexes are so complex and machine-like that nowadays the term "molecular machines" is being widely used for them.

(3) Another major type of biological invention is a new type of organelle.  Organelles are the major functional components of cells 

(4) Another major type of biological invention is a new type of cell. The human body has more than 200 types of cells, each an extremely complex type of biological invention. Cells are so complex that they are often compared to factories. 

(5) Another major type of biological invention is an anatomic innovation, such as a new type of organ or a new type of functional appendage. 

Such complex biological innovations would be necessary for any major type of evolution. But can biological variations in one generation explain such complex biological inventions? Not at all. You never get a new type of complex biological invention from random variations in a single generation.  Complex biological inventions require very special arrangements of thousands of atoms, and such things do not occur from random variations, just as ink splashes never produce functional paragraphs or even functional sentences. 

So, for example, let us imagine that there is a species that does not have a particular type of functional protein molecule that the world has never seen. It is inconceivable that by some random variation in one organism of that species there would occur the first appearance of such a protein molecule.  Such a thing would have an improbability as great as the improbability of an ink splash producing a well-written grammatical and functional paragraph of text. 

Similarly, since cells involve organizations of matter that involve special arrangements of enormously more atoms than are required to make proteins, it is inconceivable that some mere random biological variation would create a new type of cell.  If the improbability of a new type of functional protein arising from some random variation is like the improbability of a functional well-written paragraph arising from an ink splash, the improbability of a new type of cell arising from a random variation is like the improbability of an ink splash producing a long well-written essay of many pages. 

But could we imagine a smaller result from random biological variations -- something such as perhaps a tenth of a complex biological innovation? Even this idea becomes unbelievable when we consider the complexity of complex biological innovations. Complex biological innovations that add to the survival value of an organism require a huge number of changes that must be coordinated. Consider, for example, the addition of a useful new limb or appendage on an organism, such as an arm, a leg or a wing. That requires very many bone changes and muscle changes and very many changes on the level of very complex biochemistry such as proteins, protein complexes, organelles and cells. Getting even a tenth of what is needed for a complex biological innovation is something that would never occur from mere random variations. That would be as improbable as an ink splash producing a tenth of a book or a tenth of a well-written essay of many paragraphs.

And if such a tenth of a complex biological innovation were to somehow be produced by some miracle of chance, as a random change in an individual organism of a species, no improvement in reproduction or survival would occur.  So the tenth-of-a-biological-invention would never tend to spread throughout the population of the species. 

The chart below helps to clarify the situation. If a random variation were to produce a tenth of a complex biological innovation, that would be equivalent to merely getting one tenth of the red line at bottom.  Being very far from meeting the functional threshold (the minimum number of parts and coordination of those parts needed for a survival benefit), no benefit would be produced. So the tenth-of-a-biological-innovation would not tend to spread from the organism where it occurred to a significant fraction of the population. 

Complex biological innovations that improve survival of an organism require many hundreds or thousands of changes in genes, proteins, and cells, changes that must be coordinated for a benefit to result. Generically, random biological variations are useless in explaining the origin of such innovations. 

Part of the reason why biological variations in one generation cannot even yield a tenth of a complex survival-improving biological innovation is because of the gigantic amount of interdependence within the bodies of organisms.  In 99% of cases, the first-time origination of a new type of protein will do nothing by itself to improve survival in an organism. In 99% of cases a new type of cell will do nothing by itself to improve survival in an organism.  Survival-improving biological innovations almost always require a coordination of innovations in multiple places. The diagram below illustrates the point. 

The diagram below illustrates the same point. A biological variation might produce a fraction of one of the components in such a system (represented below by a single circle), but that would not produce by itself a survival improvement. What is needed is a whole system filled with interdependent components working together. 

So how is it that so many were fooled into believing that the origin of complex new survival-improving biological innovations could be explained by random variations and random mutations? The answer is that people were fooled because they allowed writers to get away with using "conceal the complexity" kind of language. Instead of being described as extremely complex innovations requiring a very special organization of many hundreds or thousands of parts,  writers described new features in organisms as mere "variations."  Those who were fooled by these accounts failed to "throw a flag" on such writers by pointing out their failure to accurately describe the vast levels of organizational and functional complexity and component interdependence in biological organisms.  

Recently some article appeared in some scientific magazine trying to sell the silly doctrine of panpsychism, the idea that all matter is conscious. It seems that quite a few "mainstream thinkers" in the scientific community posted bitter comments denouncing the article. There is a rich irony in that, because the tricks of language involved in arguing for panpsychism are very similar to the tricks of language involved in arguing for the Darwinism that is so beloved by "mainstream thinkers" in the scientific community. 

Arguments for panpsychism almost always sound the same, as if every writer was copying the original argument, making only minor variations. A typical argument for panpsychism will start out by presenting a ridiculously diminutive description of the human mind and human mental experiences, which will be described as merely "consciousness." It will be said that humans have a "property" of being conscious, something that neuroscience fails to explain. It will then be argued that this "property" of consciousness is a property of all matter, just as things such as height, width, depth, volume and mass are properties of matter.       

Such argumentation involves the most grotesque oversimplification and the most glaring diminutive misrepresentation, a kind of shadow-speaking in which realities of oceanic depth are described as if they were mere shadows of themselves, something as bad as describing a huge library as "some paper with ink marks" and as bad as describing World War II as "some noise that went on."  Human minds and human mental experiences are a reality of oceanic depth, something almost infinitely more rich and complicated than mere "consciousness."  Once we properly describe the human mind and human mental experiences, we can see how pathetic and ridiculous is the idea that we can explain the human mind by describing it as a mere "property."  The explanatory shortfall of today's neuroscientists is not merely that they have failed to credibly explain some mere fact of humans being conscious.  Their explanatory shortfall is a million times larger, being that they have failed to credibly explain a hundred undisputed aspects and capabilities of the human mind (such as memory creation, memory recall, life-long memory preservation, insight, spirituality, imagination, self-hood and thinking), as well as countless other disputed but well-documented aspects and capabilities of the human mind (such as ESP and out-of-body experiences), none of which are credibly explicable as being the result of brain activity. 

Just as arguments for panpsychism involve the most grotesque oversimplification and the most glaring diminutive misrepresentation, a kind of shadow-speaking in which realities are described as if they are mere shadows of themselves, the standard explanation of Darwinism requires a kind of shadow-speaking that relies on very misleading misrepresentations in which things are described as if they are a trillion times simpler than they are. Trying to explain the most impressive biological innovations that typically involve as many well-arranged parts as found in an automobile engine, the Darwinist refers to such things as mere "biological variations." We seem to never get in such expositions of Darwinist theory an accurate description of the realities of biological organization and biological complexity.  We are never told about how complex biological innovations require many hundreds or many thousands of well-arranged parts.  Just as the panpsychist uses the crudest, laziest "crayon sketch" in describing human minds, the Darwinist uses the crudest, laziest "crayon sketch" in describing biological innovations, utterly failing to realistically describe the vast amount of organization, coordination and fine-tuning needed to produce such marvels of innovation. 

They Spent Little Time on Epstein's Island, But Wasted Decades on Guth's "Cosmic Inflation" Dead End

There is a recent article in the news about how some leading scientists made a visit to Jeffrey Epstein's notorious pedophilia island where underage children were for years apparently raped and sexually trafficked. An NPR article tells us about a 2006 scientific conference funded by Jeffrey Epstein, who loved to mingle with scientists. It was a week-long conference called "Confronting Gravity." It was held in the Virgin Islands, and according to the article it was attended by "20 of the world's top physicists, including three Nobel laureates and three more who would later receive the prestigious prize." We read that the conference included a short trip to Epstein's notorious island:

"Along with the submarine, the scientists took a short boat ride for a barbecue picnic on Epstein's 70-acre island. Epstein had purchased Little St. James, or 'Little St. Jeff's' as he liked to call it, in 1998. It is a place that prosecutors say was used by Epstein to sexually abuse women and girls. But the physicists who visited the island say they saw none of that during their short stay.

The boat dropped off the scientists at the beach. Peebles said he remembers being met at the island by someone he described as 'a guide,' who cautioned the physicists, 'Don't go wandering off into the island.'

The group had its picnic near the Caribbean Sea. Guth said some scientists went inside Epstein's house just to use the bathroom."

The reference to Guth is a reference to  MIT physicist Alan Guth. In the article we see a big picture of him.  Some of my more suspicious readers may scoff at Guth's claim that the scientists only went to Jeffrey Epstein's house  to use his bathroom. 

I don't know what happened during the visit of these scientists to Jeffrey Epstein's house on Jeffrey Epstein's island that is now very widely regarded as being a site of sex trafficking and pedophile child abuse. But I do know that the NPR article is stating a half-truth when it describes Guth as "the physicist who first proposed the theory of cosmic inflation, a concept that has become a pillar of modern cosmology." Guth did first propose the theory of cosmic inflation. But that theory is not at all a pillar of modern cosmology. It is instead a dead-end never-well-supported theory that for 46 years has caused cosmologists to waste endless man-years of time. 

Around about 1978, cosmologists (the scientists who study the universe as a whole) were puzzled by a problem of fine-tuning. They had figured out that the expansion rate of the very early universe (at the time of the Big Bang) seems to have been incredibly fine-tuned, apparently to about one part in ten to the fiftieth power. This dilemma was known as the flatness problem. It seems that if the universe's initial expansion rate had differed by less than 1 part in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, there would not have arisen a habitable universe with galaxies and stars. 

Around 1980 Alan Guth (an MIT professor) proposed a way to solve the flatness problem. Guth proposed that for a tiny fraction of its first second (for less than a trillionth of a trillionth of a second), the universe expanded at an exponential rate. The universe is not expanding at any such rate, but Guth proposed that after a very brief instant of exponential expansion, the universe switched back to the normal, linear expansion that it now has. This was the cosmic inflation theory (not to be confused with the more general Big Bang theory), a theory which has since taken on hundreds of different forms.  

The theory was devised to get rid of some fine-tuning, but it turned out that the theory required fine-tuning of its own in multiple places. So we had a kind of "rob Peter to pay Paul" situation in which it was unclear that the need for fine-tuning had been reduced. A scientific paper says this: "It actually requires much more fine-tuning for the Universe to have inflated than for it to have been placed in some low-entropy initial state (Carroll & Chen 2004)." The paper also refers to "the highly fine-tuned initial conditions required for inflation to work."

 For many decades cosmologists have been lost in a strange little world of fantasy whenever they dealt with this cosmic inflation theory. As different versions of the theory have kept failing, cosmologists have kept producing new versions of the theory; and by now there are hundreds of versions of it, making predictions all over the map.  All attempts to provide empirical support for cosmic inflation theory have failed.  

The main prediction of cosmic inflation theories have been that there would be observed something called primordial gravitational waves, gravitational waves coming from the very early history of the universe, possibly something that would have a feature called "b-modes." Although non-primordial gravitational waves have been detected (arising from times when the universe was already billions of years old), nothing has come from decades of searches for primordial gravitational waves, which have gone on for years with ever-more-fancy and ever-more-expensive equipment.  A 2019 article states, "Models such as natural and quadratic inflation that were popular several years ago no longer seem tenable, says theorist Marc Kamionkowski of Johns Hopkins University."  A late 2021 article (based on this paper) is entitled "Primordial Gravitational Waves Continue to Elude Astronomers." But rather than discarding a theoretical approach that isn't working, our  cosmologists keep tying themselves into knots by spinning out more and more speculative ornate versions of the cosmic inflation theory (which already has many hundreds of different versions).  This has all been a giant waste of time and money, without any real success. 

It is utterly false that Guth's cosmic inflation theory is a pillar of modern cosmology. Cosmology is the study of the origin of the universe and the large-scale structure of the universe. That study can get along just fine without Guth's utterly unnecessary theory about exponential expansion occurring during the first second of the universe's history. The Big Bang theory does not need the theory of cosmic inflation, which is an utterly superfluous addition to that theory. 

Within the study of cosmology, cosmic inflation theory has long been a money-draining "white elephant," a scheme allowing cosmologists to keep draining many millions of research dollars without ever producing any compelling observational results. The advocates of cosmic inflation theory have tried to justify their money-wasting and time-wasting activities by appealing to a bandwagon effect.  Such people keep telling us that pretty much all the cosmologists agree about the truth of cosmic inflation theory.  This is not true at all. In fact, according to a poll of cosmologists taken in 2024, not even half of cosmologists believe in the cosmic inflation theory. 

In the scientific paper, on page 9 we have the result of a 2024 poll of cosmologists attending a scientific conference. Here is the result of a question that does the equivalent of asking cosmologists: what percent of you believe in the cosmic inflation theory? The result is that only 44% of cosmologists endorse the theory. 

Page 8 of the paper (discussing the result above) says that the cosmic inflation theory "does not command majority support." We have no claim in the paper that this was a secret ballot survey. A secret ballot poll might have shown even smaller support. 

For 40 years cosmic inflation theorists have been making groundless boasts that almost all cosmologists believe in the cosmic inflation theory. An example is page 3 of the paper here, in which a zealous proponent of the theory assures us that a "vast majority" of cosmologists endorse such a theory, without offering any evidence to back up such a claim. The poll above indicates that not even a majority of cosmologists endorse such a theory. Never trust any proponent of a theory who claims that the theory is supported by the great majority of specialists in some scientific field, unless such a claim is backed up by a well-designed secret ballot poll of scientists, a poll substantiating such a claim.  Scientists routinely make groundless or unfounded assertions claiming or insinuating that some theory cherished by them is supported by an overwhelming majority of people in their field.  

The lesson of the cosmic inflation theory misadventure is exactly the same as the lesson of the supersymmetry misadventure.  A search on the Cornell Physics Preprint Server for physics papers with "inflation" in the title produced 7457 results, almost all papers on the cosmic inflation theory.  A search on the Cornell Physics Preprint Server for physics papers with "supersymmetry" in the title produced 4601 results.  Both the cosmic inflation theory and the supersymmetry theory involved elaborate speculative attempts to "sweep under the rug" dramatic cases of very precise fine-tuning that had been discovered in nature. All of these papers were wastes of time and exercises in futility. Neither of these theories was ever supported by observational evidence, although endless millions were spent trying to get evidence for both of them. 

The cosmic inflation theory misadventure and the supersymmetry misadventure both teach the same lesson: when nature presents some very dramatic case of fine-tuning, do not waste huge amounts of time trying to devise elaborate theories designed to explain away such fine-tuning, and trying to sweep such fine-tuning under the rug; but instead accept such examples of cosmic fine-tuning, look for other examples of fine-tuning both in the universe and in biology, and ponder the implications of such fine-tuning that can be found so very abundantly throughout nature. The point I discuss here is discussed more fully in my post here, which explains the type of fine-tuning that supersymmetry attempted to sweep under the rug and explain away. 

A futile maneuver

Gerard Croiset's Clairvoyance Was Well Documented in 1960's Newspaper Articles

 At the link here you can read a very long excerpt from a recent book by Tricia J. Robertson, an excerpt documenting the case of Dutch clairvoyant Gerard Croiset. We read this:

"Croiset was sometimes called upon by the Dutch police to determine the whereabouts of a missing person whether they were presumed alive or dead, or to gain information about them. Croiset was also utilised by the Dutch police over many years to solve cases of theft and murder by using his amazing abilities."

We read that Croiset was a Dutch grocer who never charged money for his services. In the excerpt from Robertson's book, we read of what sounds like a case of the most astonishing clairvoyance from Croiset. It is a 1959 case involving a professor with a missing daughter. We are told that the professor arranged a telephone conversation with Croiset, who provided details that proved to be exactly correct. 

Robertson's account sounds very convincing, but there are a couple of problems with the account as she has written it. First, Robertson fails to give us the name of the professor with the missing daughter (the professor's name was Walter Sandelius). Second, she fails to give links to any source from around 1959 reporting the account she has given. It is just such things that help to build high confidence in accounts of the paranormal. 

I cannot emphasize too strongly how important it is to always track down the earliest versions of any report of the paranormal, and to look for things such as exact dates, the exact names of the witnesses, the exact source that made the earliest report, and so forth.  For example, a dated newspaper account giving exact names, dates and quotes from witnesses has a much higher value as evidence than some book written 60 years later saying that such and such happened 60 years ago to some person, without naming who the person was.  

Luckily there is a way to overcome the problems in Robertson's narrative. Using the Chronicling America web site that allows you to search old newspaper accounts, we can search for the name of Gerard Croiset. Using that technique, I found contemporary newspaper articles referring to the exact case Robertson discusses. 

The first such article I found was a February 26, 1961 article in the Evening Star. My first job ever was delivering this newspaper when I was a boy, and I know that around 1961 the Evening Star was one of the two most respected newspapers in Washington, D.C., the other being the Washington Post. Below is the 1961 newspaper article that appeared on this case involving Gerard Croiset, an article you can read using the link here:

The account is found in the bottom corner of the page, and it carries over to the next page, shown below, which you can read using this link:

Here is the part of the article that matches Robertson's account. The reporter Jack Harrison Pollack says he double-checked the account. 

"Croiset is also consulted in many missing-person

cases some of them thousands of miles from

Utrecht. One I was able to double-check in the U.S.

On October 18, 1959, Carol, the 24-year-old

daughter of Dr. Walter Sandelius, a political-science

professor at the University of Kansas, disappeared

from a hospital in Topeka where she had been a

patient. Police were unable to find her.

'After a month and a half I was ready to try

anything,' recalls Sandelius, a former Rhodes

scholar. 'In the course of my reading I had learned

about Tenhaeff. On December 11, I phoned him in

Utrecht, and he set up a three-way conversation

with Croiset.'

Croiset first asked, 'Is there a river near the

hospital where your daughter had been?'

'Yes,' answered her father, 'the Kansas River

runs close by.'

'I see her running over a large lawn and then

crossing a viaduct,' said Croiset. 'She’s now at a 

place where there are shops and a large body of

water with many small boats. She was driven there

in a truck and a big, red car.'

'Is she still alive?' asked her father anxiously.

'I’m not sure,' Croiset answered, 'but you’ll

hear something definite in six days.'

Six days later, as he was coming downstairs in

the morning to place another call to Dr. Tenhaeff

and Croiset, Sandelins was astonished to find his

daughter sitting on the sofa!

He told me recently that his daughter’s story

corroborated Croiset’s amazing vision: She had left

the hospital, running across the front lawn, and had

crossed the river at a viaduct. Making her way to

a highway, she hitched a ride with two soldiers from

the Topeka Air Base. Later she was picked up by an

elderly couple in a truck. At the time her father was

speaking to Croiset, she was at a carnival in Corpus

Christi, Texas, bordering on the Gulf of Mexico

where there are many speedboats.

“I had long suspected there was something to

extrasensory perception,'  says Dr. Sandelins.

'But now I'm sure of it.' "

So now the two problems with Robertson's account are resolved. We have the name of the professor with the missing daughter (Walter Sandelius). And we have an account written about a year after the described events, one in which the Evening Star reporter says that he double-checked (presumably by interviewing Sandelius, who he quotes). As evidence, this is not as good as a report giving all of the relevant details, which was written very soon after the events described (such as only a few days later). But it is something much better as evidence than Robertson's account the way she wrote that account. 

In the same newspaper account above we have this astonishing account regarding Croiset's clarivoyance:

"Dr. Tenhaeff in 1947 devised what he calls the

'chair experiment' for Croiset. The test has been
successfully conducted over 350 times by Dr. Tenhaeff 

and scientists in other European countries
under rigid controls. Tenhaeff, or his assistant Nicky Louwerens, select at random a chair number from a seating plan for
a meeting a week to ten days away. Croiset is told
the number. Then he describes the person who
will sit in the chair, in some cases before the person
himself even decides to attend the meeting!

Once Tenhaeff picked Chair 18 for a meeting in
Rotterdam. Croiset said, 'I see nothing.' Tenhaeff
was perplexed. Until then, Croiset had achieved
near-perfect results. Tenhaeff tried another, Chair
3. Croiset smiled: 'This is the wife of a neurologist.
Recently her face was scarred in an auto accident
in Italy.' 

On the night of the meeting it snowed in Rotterdam. Of 30 who were to be there, one person couldn’t attend. The empty chair? Number 18.

In Chair 3 sat the lady who had a scar on her face.
'Why, yes,' she said. 'I was in an accident in
Italy two months ago. But how did you know?' "

The Evening Star reporter (Jack Harrison Pollack) says he did his due diligence in checking out the reality of Croiset's clairvoyance. He mentions spending six weeks in Croiset's home city of Utrecht in the Netherlands. The reporter states this:

"I was able to check the documents in case after case transcripts, dated and signed by witnesses, letters and statements from police. All attest to Croiset’s accurate vision."

Gerard Croiset

At the beginning of the same February 26, 1961 Evening Star news story, we have another account of Croiset's clairvoyance, which you can see using the link here (or the first image above).  We read this account (in which the "paragnost" is used to mean a clairvoyant):

"An early success is this case I checked in the Parapsychology Institute and Dutch police files.On December 5, 1946, a pretty, blond, 21-year-old girl was returning home at 5:45 p.m. along a quiet country road near Wierden, Holland. Suddenly, a man leaped out from behind a stone storehouse, and assaulted her, hitting her on the neck and arms with a hammer. Before he disappeared into the dark, she was able to wrench the hammer away from him.

Police contacted Dr. Tenhaeff, who came to the
station, bringing Gerard Croiset, one of his team of
paragnosts. Because the girl was in the hospital,
Croiset didn’t see her. Instead he picked up the
hammer, his large hand squeezing the handle as
police watched skeptically. Croiset concentrated.

'He is tall and dark, about 30 years old, and has
a somewhat deformed left ear,' said the paragnost.
'But this hammer doesn’t belong to him. Its owner
was a man of about 55 whom the criminal visits
often at a small white cottage near here. It is
one of a group of three cottages, alt the same.' 

The deformed left ear was a key clue. Several
months later the police picked up a tall, dark 29-
year-old man on another morals charge. His badly

scarred and swollen left ear led to questioning about
the first attack. Finally, he admitted assaulting the
girl with the hammer. He said he had borrowed it
from a friend, who, the police discovered, lived in a
white cottage on the edge of town, with two others
just like it on either side."

Notice the exact match of the details. Croiset had not merely correctly identified the assailant as a man of about 30 with a deformed left ear. Croiset had also correctly stated that the man had got the hammer from a man living in a white cottage that was the second of a group of three white cottages close to each other. 

We read this in the article: 

"Dr. Tenhaeff's files bulge with such cases. Each
is documented with a recording or stenographic
transcript of the prediction, and with statements
confirming its accuracy from witnesses and police.

The Evening Star newspaper article quoted above was Part 2 of a two-part series by the same author. You can read Part 1 of the series using the link here, which takes you the story the Evening Star published on February 19, 1961. 

On the first of these two pages, the page here, the reporter (Jack Harrison Pollack) tells an astonishing story. He says he was in the living room of Gerard Croiset,  with Dr. W. H. C. Tenhaeff, when a call came from 50 miles away, with someone in Eindhoven reporting that a 4-year-old child had been missing for 24 hours. Croiset said "in about three days the child's body will be found in the canal close to the bridge." The reporter left feeling skeptical. But he says this:

"Three days later, I checked up.  The police of Eindhoven had just found the child’s body next to one of the piers of the bridge over the canal -- exactly as Croiset had predicted." 

The reporter says that at the Parapsychology Institute, "thousands of cases of ESP have been uncovered and documented." At the page here we read these claims: