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Our future, our universe, and other weighty topics


Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Nonsense in the Science TV Show "The Hunt for Planet B"

The HBO Max TV show "The Hunt for Planet B" is one that starts out with a scientist spouting bad reasoning right at its beginning. Around the 3:20 mark we see an MIT scientist named Sara Seager  saying this in some congressional hearing:

"Well let me just say that in our own Milky Way galaxy there are a hundred billion stars and we now believe in our universe we have more than a hundred billion galaxies. So if you just do the math, the chance that there's a planet like earth out there with life on it is very high."

This is fallacious reasoning. You do not "do the math" by merely computing the total number of chances for an unlikely event to occur.  That's not "doing the math," but doing only half of the math.  Unless you have also estimated the chance of success on any one trial, you have only done half the math.  

The argument Seager gave is the "many chances equals some successes" argument. When this argument occurs, someone reasons that the chance of at least one success must be high, because there were many chances for success.  The argument is fallacious. If the chance of success on any one trial is sufficiently low, then many chances will probably equal zero successes. For example, if you spend every Sunday afternoon throwing a deck of cards into the air, there will be many chances for the full deck of cards to accidentally form into a triangular house of cards consisting of multiple rows of cards. But you will never, ever see such a house of cards resulting from your tosses. 

astronomer fallacy

In the TV show  Seager follows her junk reasoning with the extremely false claim (at the 4:00 mark) that "scientists never like to speculate." 

At the 11:12 mark in the TV show some scientist says this: "I think people want us to build this telescope because they want to know how we got here."  That's a silly statement to make. Telescopes cannot tell us how mankind got here. 

Around the 14:19 mark Seager escalates her fallacious "many chances equals some successes" reasoning, in a way that makes her sound like a True Believer. She goes from "highly likely" to "certain," saying nothing to justify her claims. She says this, using the phrase "another Earth" to mean another planet with life:

"Another Earth is undoubtedly out there. In our Milky Way galaxy we have hundreds of billions of stars. Our own universe has hundreds of billions of galaxies.  To me personally it is definitely there. "

Here unscientific and unphilosophical. The correct way to reason on this topic is to make a sound estimate of the chance of success on each trial, taking into proper account the very high organization of the simplest living things, and to compare that estimate to the number of trials (the number of planets in the observable universe), rather than to just mindlessly refer to a high number of trials as proof that one of the trials must have succeeded at something vastly improbable, like some person senselessly reasoning that he must have won the Powerball lottery because he bought lots of tickets. 

Around the 16:37 mark  astrochemist Clara Sousa-Silva claims that "some molecules, like phosphine, only life sends out into the atmosphere." At the 16:53 mark she says phosphine is "an unequivocal sign of life." This is not correct. Referring to lifeless planets and a type of star called T-dwarfs, a scientific paper claims that we should expect to find phosphine in the atmospheres of large planets and "hotter objects":

"Disequilibrium abundances of phosphine (PH3) approximately representative of the total atmospheric phosphorus inventory are expected to be mixed upward into the observable atmospheres of giant planets and T dwarfs. In hotter objects, several P-bearing gases (e.g., P2, PH3, PH2, PH, HCP) become increasingly important at high temperatures."

A study in 2025 reported finding phosphine in the atmosphere of a brown dwarf star, which helps show that you do not require life for phosphine to be produced.  Another paper suggests that volcanoes can explain phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus.

At the 16:59 mark we get more groundless optimism from Seager, who attempts to justify a dubious belief by using an ad populum argument in which she claims that her opinion is that of "my generation." She says this:

"My generation, we're betting on the fact that nature delivers. That life can originate and evolve anywhere given the chance and we're planning on finding it. There's no question."

There's nothing scientific going on in such silly talk, which has a "True Believer dogmatist" sound to it. All attempts to produce life in experiments realistically simulating the early Earth have been dismal failures. They failed to produce life; they failed to produce any of the main building components of life (functional protein molecules); and they did not even produce any of the building components (amino acids) of the building components of life.  There was a famed experiment that produced some amino acids (the Miller-Urey experiment), but it was not a realistic simulation of early Earth conditions, requiring a special glass gizmo unlike anything that would have existed on the early Earth, and involving a very prolonged high degree of electricity exposure that no place on Earth would have naturally received.  

The fact that Seager says "we're betting...that life can originate and evolve anywhere given the chance" shows what an act of faith is going on here.  Seager here is like some fundamentalist betting that the Rapture will occur in her lifetime.  Various observation developments make Seager's faith in blind chance unreasonable. The first is what we've learned about the complexity and organization in even the simplest living things, that even the simplest one-celled life requires hundreds of types of protein molecules, each its own separate complex invention involving hundreds of specially arranged amino acid  parts. Faith that chance can produce such results is like believing in the power of accidental ink splashes to produce 100-page technical manuals.  Another is the complete failure to discover radio messages from extraterrestrial civilizations, despite many years of well-funded searches. If "life can originate and evolve anywhere given the chance," we would expect that such searches for extraterrestrial radio signals would have succeeded long ago. 

Around the 26:31 mark SETI astronomer Jill Tarter is asked about the failure of searches for radio signals from extraterrestrials, searches which have now gone on without success for more than 60 years.  She gives an answer that is not candid. A sensible and candid answer would be, "Yes, we have not found anything yet, and this may suggest that extraterrestrial civilizations are much more rare than we had thought."  But Tarter instead gives us a misleading answer, saying, "We just haven't looked far enough." She then gives some analogy trying to persuade us that very little of space has been checked for radio signals from extraterrestrials. Her language is extremely misleading. 

Below are some of the SETI searches that have occurred over the past 65 years (some of the observation time figures are taken from the source here):

  • The SERENDIP I project, which from 1979 to 1982 surveyed a large portion of the sky, the portion depicted in Figure 4 of the paper here, a project which a Sky and Telescope article tells us surveyed "many billions of Milky Way stars."

  • The Southern SERENDIP project lasting 1998 and 2005, which surveyed for some 60,000 hours a large portion of the sky, the portion depicted in Figure 2 of the paper here.

  • The SERENDIP II project from 1986 to 1988, involving some 17,000 hours of observations

  • The All-Sky Search at Ohio State University from 1989 to 1996 (Childers, Dixon and Bolinger), involving 60,000 hours of observations, 

  • The Astropulse and Fly's Eye SETI projects surveying a significant portion of the sky, the portion depicted in Figure 2 of the paper here

  • The SETI@Home project, which according to the source here covered 20% of the full celestial sphere, and 67% of the sky area observable from the Arecibo observatory. 

  • The Harvard BETA all-sky SETI survey discussed here, which operated continuously for more than four years (1995-1999), scanning the whole part of the sky observable from Massachusetts, USA, and doing 35,000 hours of observations. 

  • Years of SETI searches using the Allen Telescope Array, involving 12 hours a day of SETI searches, 7 days a week, for years (such as 2007 to 2010), resulting in 95,000 hours of observations (discussed here). 

  • An optical search for extraterrestrial intelligence, searching 577 nearby stars that might have habitable planets, looking for laser signals.

  • All of the optical searches for extraterrestrial intelligence listed on the three pages you can view here, including three searches each involving more than 7000 hours of telescope time, and one search involving 200,000 objects and other searches involving thousands of stars. 

  • The two-year southern sky SETI search discussed here, which observed for 9000 hours and "covered the sky almost two times."  

  • The five-year META SETI project discussed here, which between 1988 and 1993 spent about 80,000 hours of telescope time searching for extraterrestrials. 

  • A META II SETI project between 1990 and 2010, involving 9000 hours of observations of the southern sky.

  • All of the radio telescopes searches listed on the seven pages of search results you can review at the link here, including a Dixon, Ehman and Raub search from 1973 to 1986 involving 100,000 hours of telescope time, 

  • failed search of 10 million stars using what in 2009 was the latest and greatest technology.

  • SERENDIP III project from 1992 to 1997, involving 40,000 hours of observations, and surveying 30% of the sky. 

  • Extensive SETI searches carried out by the 500-meter FAST radio telescope in China. 

  • The ASTROPULSE project discussed here, involving 21,000 hours of observations from 2006 to 2010. 

  • The SETI-Italia project discussed here, involving 30,000 hours of observation from 2006 to 2010.

  • The Breakthrough Listen project described here, which began in 2015, and has run for 10 years with 100 million dollars in funding, involving thousands of hours each year of dedicated SETI searching, on two of the world's largest radio telescopes.

  • A failed search of 1300 galaxies, reported in 2024, using low frequencies and the  Murchison Widefield Array (MWA).

At the 27:23 mark we have someone named Matt saying  "Ultimately science is about observation. Because it's only observation which actually gives you the truth." To the contrary, while observation is the most important source of truth, there are other things that can give you the truth, such as mathematics, logic, analysis and deduction.  

At the 30:35 mark we hear some scientist driving a car, praising the James Webb Telescope, while strangely saying, "So you know, I mean I don't know: what else would you want to do with your life?" An answer might be: "Any of a million jobs more useful than astronomy." At around the 32:07 mark, we hear some authority say, "I've learned one does not argue with Nobel Prize winners." It sound like an authority-kneeling sentiment contrary to the true spirit of science, and contrary to the motto of the Royal Society, which translates to English as "Take no man's word for it."

Around the 35:49 mark we hear Sarah Seager boasting "we've made a giant accelerated leap forward in the search for habitable worlds," followed by another scientist making the false claim that the discovery of planets at Trappist-1 "gives us a hint that finding a second Earth is not just a matter of if, but when." No, a second Earth would be a planet containing life, and all attempts to find such a thing have failed. So it very much is a matter of "if" rather than just "when."  

Around the 50:50 mark we have chemist Nick Lane saying this, after referring to hydrothermal vents and the origin of life.  

"There's a particular type of mineral. It's called olivine. You find it as dust throughout interstellar space. This is a really common mineral.  And the thing is it will react with water bubbling hydrogen gas out. And that's basically an environment that's giving rise to life." 

What utter BS, baloney and hogwash that statement is.  Even the simplest living thing is an extremely high level of organization, component interdependence  and information richness; and the origin of such a thing is utterly beyond any explanation of hydrogen bubbling in water. No one has ever observed life or any of the building components of life arising from nonlife because of a mere action of minerals and hydrogen bubbling in water.  We have here more biological origins nonsense from Nick Lane, who has sometimes misspoken on this topic, as I document here and here

Around the 54:07 mark we see a scientist named Maggie talking to a retail clerk, and saying that she is working on the search for life in outer space. Asked whether she has found such life  yet,  she gives the misleading answer, "No, but we're getting ever closer." Asked whether she believes that life exists in outer space, she gives some more of the bad "many chances equals some successes" reasoning discussed above. She says, "Surely life arises when the conditions are right." That does not make any sense, given the failure of all experiments realistically simulating the early Earth to produce either life or any of the building components of life (protein molecules). Scientists have never observed life arising from non-life whenever they tried to create ideal sterile conditions for such a thing to happen. 

Around the 1:02:57 mark in the show, we see chemist Nick Lane staring at skulls in a glass museum case. One or more of the skulls are fake. If you pause exactly at the  1:03:12 mark, you can see that the skull closest to Nick is an Australopithecus afarenis "skull" that is labeled as a "skull model," which means a fake. That skull is not an actual skull from an organism that once lived.  

Posing a question presuming Darwinist dogmas, someone asks Lane what he thinks when he contemplates "our cousins and our ancestors?"  At the 1:02:54 mark Lane says, "It's more and more clear that you know, looking at these skulls, that there have been numerous human species and they've all gone extinct apart from us, usually because of us, usually after interbreeding with us." Lane is using the long-running language abuse of Darwinists in which non-human species with shapes rather like human shapes are misleadingly called "human." One of the defining characteristics of humans is their use of symbols. The word "human" should never be used for any species that did not use symbols. The "skull" closest to Lane when he makes this statement is a fake skull of Australopithecus afarenis, which did not use symbols, and is not correctly described as "human." 

The attempt here to promote Darwinist ideas is a bungling one. Instead of having a tale of an ancestry from human ancestors to humanity we have a story of species going extinct because they interbred with us.  At the 1:03:17 mark Lane asks the ludicrous question "Do you feel some guilt when you look into those eye sockets?" (a reference to the extinction of species who died out before recorded history). Lane gives the equally ludicrous answer "I do."

At the 1:04:45 mark a scientist named Matt Mountain gives this vacuous hand-waving explanation, "Physically, evolution made us, biology made us." Not being a theory of organization but a mere theory of the accumulation of random mutations, Darwinist ideas of evolution offer no credible account for the origin of the first human bodies or the first human minds. And if you are talking about "us" in the sense of you and me,  you are not giving any credible explanation of the origin of you and me by referring to evolution (something happening before we existed) or by the hand-waving vagueness of appealing to "biology."  You might have a credible explanation for you and me if you had (1) a credible theory explaining how a speck-sized zygote existing just after impregnation progresses to become the vast organization of a human body; (2) a credible theory of how a human mind can arise from a human body. Scientists utterly luck both of these things. The idea that brains give rise to human minds is not credible, for a host of reasons explained at my site here

miracle of morphogenesis

While giving this hand-waving explanation, Mountain literally waves his hands. 

Around the 1:08:19 mark Seager refers to her search for a second Earth and says, "I have to do something that has some importance as seen by myself because otherwise I have nothing. Does that make sense?" No, it doesn't make sense, because a bit earlier Seager said that she had kids, and a person lucky enough to have children has the most wonderful treasure, the exact opposite of having nothing.  And even a single average person has a body that is the wonderful marvel of organization, and a mind that is the most glorious marvel of cognitive functionality. Such things are the opposite of "nothing." 

 The TV show discussed above ("The Hunt for Planet B") was made in 2021. The James Webb Telescope was launched near the end of 2021. The telescope has run for four full years, and has failed to produce any evidence of a planet with life. Scientist  Nikku Madhusudhan claimed to have found a biosignature on planet K2-18 b, but the claim was unfounded, for reasons discussed here

frustrated astronomers
If they made a movie about astronomy failure

Wayback Machine Archive Snapshots of This Blog's Content

Should it ever happen years in the future that you attempt to access this blog but find it is not available, you will always be able to read previous snapshots of this blog's contents using the Wayback Machine facility at www.archive.org. 

The way this Wayback Machine works is that you must type the full URL of some site whose content you want to view by examining previous captures of the site.  Follow this procedure to access previous snapshots of this blog's contents:

1. Go to www.archive.org.

2. In the search box at the top, type in the following:



3. You will see an interface allowing you to choose any of various snapshots of this blog's contents taken over the years. Choose the latest one. After doing that, you will be able to navigate this site's pages. 

The only reason I can imagine that someone would do this would be if there were some reason why the regular site (the site you are now at) was not available.  That could conceivably happen if this site were to be hacked by malicious actors, or conceivably it might happen long after my death. 

The Wayback Machine has many snapshots of the previous contents of my three blogs. You can access them by typing these URLs into the search bar of the Wayback Machine, shown above. 

https://futureandcosmos.blogspot.com/ 

Sunday, June 28, 2026

When Mysterious Music Is Heard When Someone Dies

Many times someone near death may seem to get a glimpse of light from some mysterious world beyond. Some have claimed to see a glorious vision of a heavenly realm, maybe something like this:

heavenly city

Apparitions of the dead are often reported at a deathbed. A much less common type of report is a report of mysterious music occurring at the time of death. One such report appears on page 221 of Volume II of the classic two-volume Phantasms of the Living. We read this 1885 account by Sarah A. Sewell of events in 1863, near the deathbed of a sick girl Lilly who died on the Tuesday mentioned:

"Our attention was roused by sounds of the music of an Aeolian harp, which proceeded from a corner cupboard in one corner of the room. All was hushed, and I said, 'Lilly, do you hear that pretty music?' and she said, ' No,' at which I was much surprised, for she was a great lover of music. The sounds increased until the room was full of melody, when it gradually and slowly seemed to pass down the stairs and ceased. The servant, who was occupied in the kitchen, two stories below, heard the sounds, and our eldest daughter, who was going into the larder, stopped in the passage to listen and wonder where the music came from, and the servant called to her, ' Do you hear that music?' ...' The next day (Sunday) my old nurse and aunt came up to see how Lilly was, and were, with my husband, all in the room with the child. I had gone down into the kitchen to prepare some little dainty milk-food for her, when the same sounds of Aeolian music were heard by all three in the room, and I heard the same in the kitchen. Monday passed, but we had no repetition. On Tuesday, at the same hour, we [i.e., Mr. and Mrs. Sewell] once more heard the same wailing Aeolian music from the same part of the room ; again it increased in volume, until the room was full of wailing melody ; and again did the sounds appear to pass through the door, down the stairs, and out at the front door. Now, this music was heard three different days, at the same time each day, and not only by those in the room with the child, but by myself, my daughter, and the servant, two flights of stairs below the room the child was in ; and on the second day by my aunt and nurse and the children, who were in the dining-room." 

On the next page Matthew Sewell corroborates the account:

"I heard the sweet music identically with my wife. The music was heard on Saturday, 2nd of May, a little before 4 o'clock in the afternoon, also on the next day at about the same time, and also on the following Tuesday at about the same hour. Those who heard the music were my wife, myself, my wife's aunt, the nurse, our son Richard, aged 7 ; our son Thomas, aged 9 (the last four all dead), our eldest daughter, aged 11, and our servant, who shortly left us and went to Ireland to her husband, who was a soldier, and was soon lost sight of. Our eldest daughter is now in New York, and I have no doubt but that she will remember the circumstance. I am quite satisfied that the music heard was not produced by someone at a distance, for our house was then situated in a long garden, some 50 yards distant from the public road, and the adjoining house to ours was unoccupied at the time. The sound was not a muffled sound at all, but the soft, wild notes of an Aeolian harp, which rose and fell distinctly, and increased gradually, until the room was full of sound, as loud as the full swell of an organ, and it rolled slowly down the stairs, dying softly on the ear in weird cadences. I am certain it was not produced by human fingers."

The reported events occurred in 1863, before there were any machines capable of playing back prerecorded music, and decades before music could be transmitted by radio. The two witnesses were interviewed by one of the authors of Phantasms of the Living

On page 223 of the same volume, we read an 1884 account by Mrs. Yates, who states this:

"In 1870 I lost a dearly loved daughter, 21 years old ; she died at noonday, of aneurism. At night, my only other daughter was with me, when all at once we both assumed a listening attitude, and we both heard the sweetest of spiritual music, although it seemed so remote, my ears were hurt listening so intently. Till some hours after, my dear girl and I were afraid to inquire of each other had we heard it, for fear we were deluded, but we found both had been so privileged and blessed."

Giving her address, the daughter (A. Beilby) states the following:

" I can speak with certainty respecting the beautiful music my dear mother and I heard on the 26th November, 1870. I shall never forget it; we were both afraid to speak, it was so exquisite."

Camille Flammarion was the author of the monumental three-volume work Death and Its Mystery, a classic of parapsychology which you can read  herehere and here, as well as the massive tome The Unknown, which you can read here. On this page of The Unknown, we read an account by M. Alphonse Berget, involving a friend of his mother's (Amelie) who had become a nun:

"Amélie had been in religion about three years, when one day my mother went up to the garret to look for something she was anxious to find. All at once she ran back to the salon uttering loud cries, and fell down unconscious. They flew to her help, lifted her up, and she came to herself, crying with sobs :

' Oh, it is horrible ! Amélie is dying — she is dead, for I have just heard her singing as only a person who is dead could sing !'

And another nervous seizure again made her lose her senses.

Half an hour after this, Colonel M. rushed like a madman into my grandfather's house, holding a dispatch in his hand. The dispatch was from the Mother Superior of the convent at Strasbourg, and contained only these words : ' Come. Your granddaughter very ill.' The colonel took the first train, reached the convent, and heard that the Sister had died at three o'clock precisely, the hour of the nervous attack experienced by my mother. This fact has been often told me by my mother, my grandmother, and my father, who were present, as well as my uncle and aunt, all of whom bear testimony that they had witnessed this strange incident."

On page 314 of the May 14, 1921 edition of the periodical Light, which you can read here, we read this account by F. H. Rooke:

" Some years ago my sister and I had a joint experience, which has been the greatest comfort to us.  Our mother lay dangerously ill , every nerve racked with rheumatoid arthritis, and both nurse and doctor seemed to think that her sufferings could not last much longer. 

 One night about 1 a.m. my sister was sitting up with the nurse ( I was sleeping on another landing ), when her attention was transfixed by the most beautiful majestic chords, as if every golden note of melody was being played on some heavenly instrument - music far exceeding anything she had ever heard . Turning to the nurse, she said , ' Did you hear that ? '  'I heard nothing,' was the answer. At that moment I entered the room saying 'Where does that beautiful music come from ?' The music had awakened me out of heavy slumber. 

As we spoke the sounds died away, and on looking at the bed, it was evident to me that the sweet spirit of our devoted mother had passed to other realms to these beautiful strains."

On page 92 of the April 24, 1885 edition of the Proceedings of the Society for Psychical Research (Volume 3), which you can read here, we have the following account involving mysterious music at the scene of someone's deathbed. It is an account supplied in 1885, of events in 1874. The writer apparently used "Julia X" where he meant to write "Julia Z." 

"Six or seven years passed away, and Mrs. --, who bad been long ill, was dying, in fact she did die the following day. I was sitting at the foot of her bed talking over some business matters that she was anxious to arrange, being perfectly composed and in thorough possession of her senses ; in fact she was right, and my solicitor, who advised that the step she wanted to be taken was not necessary, was wrong. She changed the subject and said: ' Do you hear those voices  singing?' I replied that I did not; and she said: 'I have heard them several times to-day, and I am sure they are the angels welcoming me to Heaven; but,' she added, 'it is strange, there is one voice amongst them I am sure I know, and cannot remember whose voice it is.'  Suddenly she stopped and said, pointing straight over my head, 'Why there she is in the comer of the room; it is Julia X. [Julia Z.]; she is coming on ; she is leaning over you ; she has her hands up ; she is praying; do look ; she is going.'  I turned but could see nothing. Mrs. -- then said, 'She is gone.'  All these things I imagined to be the phantasies of a dying person. Two days afterwards, taking up the Times newspaper, I saw recorded the death of Julia Z., wife of Mr. Z. I was so astounded that in a day or so after the funeral I went up to -- and asked Mr. X. if Mrs. Z., his daughter, was dead. He said, 'Yes, poor thing, she died of puerperal fever. On the day she died she began singing in the morning, and sang and sung until she died.' "

In a 1920 publication here, we read the account below:

"The most famous of all cases of ghostly music, however, is that of Samuel Foote. When staying a night at his father’s house, in Truro, he was awakened by the sweetest music he had ever heard. He got up, roused the household, and they all listened to it, but no one could tell who was responsible for it, or whence it originated. Shortly afterwards, Foote learned that, at the very hour he had listened to the mysterious music, his maternal uncle, Sir John Goodere, had been kidnapped, taken on board the ship of his brother, Captain Goodere, and deliberately strangled."

The eerie 1891 account below (which you can read here) claims that a periodical called the Pittsburgh Dispatch reported "ghostly sounds...the music of a violin" was  long heard after a murder, at a log cabin location.

musical phantom

We may wonder whether anything supernatural was going on, or whether it was just some natural sound that vivid imaginations interpreted as mysterious violin music (maybe a whistling of the wind through woods surrounding a log cabin). Nature can suddenly astound us with sounds that seem like the most wonderful or eerie music. Just yesterday, I heard some songbird outside my window, and its music was so stunning that I thought to myself: this is the Maria Callas of songbirds. The notes were ever-changing and always delightful.  Hearing that bird, I can understand the kind of natural music that inspired  Shelley to write his ode "To a Skylark." 

Friday, June 26, 2026

Thank You, Readers

It finally happened: after 13 years of writing on this site, this blog has  reached a page view count in the millions. I thank my readers for their repeated visits here. 

In the past decade I have not spent a cent to advertise or promote this blog, which I have never spent more than about 20 dollars to promote. And I have never done anything to artificially inflate my page view count. So I presume that some people must be helping me get increased readership, by means of word-of-mouth.  To such people I am particularly grateful. 

I can promise this much to readers who keep visiting this site: you will for sure be able to get my posts at roughly their current publication rate, for almost two more years, at least.  I have hundreds of my not-yet-published posts which I have auto-scheduled for future publication, which will be published on my blog sites even if I meet an untimely demise this year. And all of these posts were manually written by me, without any writing help from any AI tool. So if you want to keep reading up on the "weighty topics" mentioned in this blog's byline, without any ads or AI slop, keep coming here.