Reports of the Paranormal in a Cold War Document

 In March 1978 there was published "a Department of Defense Intelligence Document prepared by the Foreign Technology Division, Air Force Systems Command and approved by Assistant Vice Directorate for Science and Technical Intelligence of the Defense Intelligence Agency."  The document was entitled "PARAPHYSICS R&D-WARSAW PACT." Paraphysics is a term similar to parapsychology. The R&D stands for Research and Development.  The Warsaw Pact refers to an alliance circa 1978 involving the Soviet Union (roughly corresponding to Russia) and its eastern European satellite countries such as Poland. Let us look at some remarkable statements made in the document (which can be read here and here).

On page 3 we read the following about a paranormal ability test that got a "one in a million" result:

"The early short-distance experiments may have been performed to verify some of the research· conducted by L. L. Vasil'yev in the 1920's and 1930's and used a hypnotic state as well as normal consciousness. Some experiments were also conducted in shielded rooms. Kogan was sufficiently satisfied that the results were far greater than expected by chance and that further research was warranted. For example, in one experiment involving selection of one of ten cards numbered one through ten, with 'inductor' (sender) in a separate room, the 'percipient' (subject, or receiver) selected 13 correct cards in 26 attempts (probability around 10^-6 )."

On page 4 we read about an ESP experiment that was vastly more impressive. The document states this:

 "Perhaps the most meaningful experiment in terms of ease of evaluation and apparent potential in a communication mode was performed in 1967. This involved attempts at transmission of randomly selected digits between 0 and 9. Distance between 'sender' and 'receiver' was varied from several meters to several kilometers. Reported results, as attested to by at least five members of the All-Union Technical Society of Radio Technology and Communications ...indicates 105 of 135 numbers were described (received) correctly by the receiver. The article states this to be 78% correct; however, this is a significant understatement since it does not reflect the overall probability of such an occurrence. In fact, in terms of probability, this would have to qualify as the most statiatically significant result ever reported· in psychic research literature; the probability of duplication via random occurrence would be about 10^-77."

The probability mentioned is a probability of about 1 in 10⁷⁷.  That is a probability of about 1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

Whoever wrote the document errs when he describes this result as "the most statistically significant result ever reported· in paychic research literature."  Such a result was not as impressive as the result once reported by Professor Bernard F. Riess in 1937, a professor at Hunter College in New York. The Riess experiment is discussed on page 167-168 of Rhine's book Extra-sensory Perception After Sixty Years ( see here or here).  Another discussion of the experiment is here. Riess conducted remote ESP card guessing experiments with a woman located in another room a quarter of a mile away. Guessing a total of 1850 cards (each of which had 5 possible values), the woman guessed with an accuracy of 73%. The probability of getting a result this high by chance has been estimated as 1 in 10 to the seven hundredth power, or 1 in 10⁷⁰⁰.

On page 5 we read about experiments in which certain people could tell what was inside sealed envelopes merely by touching them:

"The investigations reported by Larissa V. Vilenskaya are an example. She has been conducting research with E. K Naumov (who is not currently active) and now appears to be involved with a variety of her own investigations. One aspect is her study of a phenomena initially referred to as 'skin vision' or, more recently, 'dermo-optics.' This relates to an apparent ability of some people to identify colors of concealed 'targets' simply by touching the opaque outer covering."

No one who has studied the abundant nineteenth century evidence relating to clairvoyance under hypnosis should be surprised that such experiments were taken, or that they achieved an enormous success mentioned below. It was abundantly reported by reputable sources in the nineteenth century that under hypnosis certain people could tell what was in double-wrapped or triple-wrapped envelopes or sealed containers (read here and here for some examples).   The Didier brothers (Alexis and Adolphe) showed such an ability in public exhibitions countless times.  

We read on page 6 of the "PARAPHYSICS R&D-WARSAW PACT" paper about this success in twentieth century experiments of this type:

"In one recent experimental series, a subject with apparent psychic ability identified the correct target color in 113 out of 200 trials (probability of 10^-21 ). There were four color card possibilities, with 50 correlations being chance level."

Such a result had a chance likelihood of about 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (the same as 1 in 10²¹).

On page 6.1 of the "PARAPHYSICS R&D-WARSAW PACT" paper we read about experiments that will come as no surprise to any scholar of nineteenth century reports of clairvoyance under hypnosis. We read the following: "In other instances, a visitor to Leningrad in 1975 apparently observed an informal 'remote viewing' type demonstration with a hypnotized subject." In nineteenth century literature on hypnotism (often then called "Mesmerism" or "animal magnetism"), it was very often reported that hypnotized subjects could engage in a kind of clairvoyance similar to remote viewing, under which a subject would describe details of distant locations not visible to his eyes, typically locations he had not seen with his eyes. 

On page 8 of the "PARAPHYSICS R&D-WARSAW PACT" paper, we have a discussion of Nina Kulagina, who supposedly had a mind-over-matter ability that could be described as psychokinesis:

"In a recent demonstration, under informal conditions, an observer claimed Kulagina was able to cause small nonmagnetic objects, suspended from springs in a plexiglass container, to move. In another experiment she apparently caused a plastic object, in an inverted glass container, to move toward her. There have been many similar reports from other USSR investigators and visiting Western observers over the past decade....In one experimental series, frog hearts were placed in an appropriate solution, and Kulagina attempted to influence their activity. Sergeyev claims that normally frog hearts remain active in solution up to 1.5·2 hours after removal from the frog. In the first of the experiments the electrocardiogram (EKG) indicated activity ceased about 7 minutes after Kulagina began concentration on 'stopping the heart.' The heart had been in a ceramic container. In the second experiment, with the heart in a metallic container, heart activity ceased after 22 minutes. In both these experiments, Kulagina was 1.5 meters from the 'target' hearts....In another experiment, Kulagina attempted to increase the heart rate of a skeptical physician. Electroencephalogram, electrocardiogram, and other parameters were measured in both. Abrupt changes in these parameters were noted in both people within 1 minute after the experiment began. After 5 minutes, Sergeyev judged the heart activity of the physician had reached dangerous levels, and the experiment was terminated." 

On page 10 we have a discussion of what sounds like evidence for levitation:

"Pushkin has also studied other aspects of psychokinetic phenomena, particularly the alleged ability of B. Ermolayev, a Moscow resident, to cause small objects to remain suspended with no apparent support. Ermolayev apparently is very close to the objects during such tests, which is suggestive of Adamenko's view tbat electrostatic fields may somehow be involved." 

Also on page 10 we have a discussion of research into a kind of "Ted Serios" effect:

"Another type of investigation into paranormal energetic proceeses was reported at the Third International Psychotronics conference by G. P. Krokhalev, a psychiatrist from Perm. His experiments involve attempts to have 'mental images' appear on photographic film. He claims to have recorded the effect under controlled conditions. As an example, a person who could visualize images well, even to the point of hallucinating, was able to specify the image beforehand tbat was latar observed on the film." 

The document mentions how a J. Eisenbud had observed such a power in Ted Serios, and states the Eisenbud's work "appears to be valid." 

On page 10.1 we hear more of Nina Kulagina:

"Movement of small nonmetallic and metallic objects: Gulyayev, and other USSR Academy of Science members, have observed the apparent psychokinetic (PK) ability of Nina Kulagina to move (slide, rotate, roll) small objects a few meters removed from her. Gulyayev is oonvinced this phenomena is gennine and has observed these effects under tight control. He now plans to develop more tightly controlled experiments, with objects in sealed plastic boxes, and to further develop Kulagina's ability to 'focus' on objects at greater distance. During these experiments, Kulagina's blood pressure is typically 240/200, her pulse rate is 180-200 heats par minute, her blood sugar is five times normal, and her electroencephalogram (EEG) is similar to epileptic-type people."  

We also read these startling details about Nina Kulagina:

"Gulyayev claims Kulagina's most repeatable effect is to cause burn marks to appear on other people. During acts of intention, and with her hands plaoed near the desired burn area of willing observers, a burn-like welt appears, with accompanying pain. These 'welts' eventually heal, consistent with normal burn recovery times. Gulyayev has experienced this himself, and has attempted to put physical filters between Kulagina's hands and the subject's skin. Some filters (metal, rubber) appear to have no influence; but others (glass) appear to block the 'effects.' " 

On page 10.2 we read of a subject that seemed to have an ability to partially levitate objects: 

 "Another subject (the schizophrenic girl) appears to have the ability to cause material objects to become partially suspended. According to Gulyayev, she can cause a wooden object (ruler) to 'rise' to a 45° angle with only one end remaining in contact with the table or floor. The ruler usually remains in this position for several minutes and does not slide when placed on glass. This has been photographed, observed by other Academy members, and has been thoroughly checked for hidden strings. Gulyayev concludes it is a genuine phenomenon, and plans to pursue this type of experiment further."

On page 19 we read this:

 "In 1966, Lozanov described one of his experiments at a parapsychology conference in Moscow. In this, a sender attempted to influence another person's selection of one of two telegraph keys. In nearly 2,000 trials, the appropriate key was selected about 70% of the time (probability of about l0^-6)." 

On the same page we claims that should come as no surprise to anyone who has read of countless similar claims about hypnotized persons in the nineteenth century:

"Investigations were also performed by several European researchers during the 1920's and 1930's on the abilities of Stefen Ossowiecki, a well-known Polish psychic. These investigations all concluded Ossowiecki displayed highly unusual abilities of a clairvoyant nature, including the ability to describe objects and written material sealed in lead containers and opaque envelopes."

On page 20 we read this interesting tidbit: "Stefanski believes hypnosis is necessary to develop and enhance paranormal perception, and apparently employs techniques similar to Kafka and Ryzl (the Czech researchers)."  It is true that reports of clairvoyance under a hypnotic trance seem to surpass reports of clairvoyance in a normal state of consciousness. American and European researchers in the past hundred years seem to have failed to follow up on this promising lead, as if they were neglecting to follow the rule of "use what has proven to work best." 

A table from the report

Brain Scan Stunts Are Not Mind Reading

Yesterday the top link on the Reddit futurology subreddit (www.reddit.com/r/futurology) was an article with a headline Mind Reader: Meet The Man Who Records and Stores Your Thoughts, Dreams and Memories. Over 700 readers have “liked” this article. But this article is junk technology reporting. Nobody has the slightest idea of how to record or store thoughts, dreams, or memories (outside of conventional media).

The article discusses a company founded by one Donald Marks. The company has some technology for doing brain scanning and storing the results. “"Some people call it 'thought identification' but it is essentially mind reading,” says Marks. “It is the process of recognizing activation patterns in the brain and identifying what thoughts are associated with them." Marks seems to be guilty of shameless overblown hype here, something he has a motive for because he has a financial interest in hyping his own company. The process his company is using is not at all mind reading. No one knows how to do any such thing.

There are various ways to scan the brain. One way is to use functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), which measures change in blood oxygenation. Then there's CT scanning, and a process called PET. Then there's MEG, which measures magnetic fields produced by electrical activity in the brain. Then there's NIRS, another technique for measuring blood oxygenation in the brain.

None of these methods give one single bit of direct information about what someone is thinking or perceiving. However, scientists can try an elaborate technique for matching up brain scans taken at a particular time with data about what a person was observing at some particular time, or what a person says he was thinking at a particular time. It doesn't work very well at all, because two person's brains don't look the same way when they are thinking the same thing, or looking at the same thing. Even a single person's brain doesn't look exactly the same way when that person is looking at the same thing or thinking the same thought at two different times.

But there does seem to be a little bit of a tendency for one brain to look a little like another brain when they are observing the same thing or thinking the same thing. So scientists are able to do a little bit of what I may call a parlor trick. The parlor trick consists of analyzing sets of brain scans, and studying what a brain scan tends to look like when a particular thought is being thought, or a particular thing has being observed. Scientists can use that analysis to make a very weak limited-scope prediction about a person's thought or observations.

For example, when a person thinks about (or observes) something burning in a fire, his brain scan might tend to look a little different from the way it would look if he were thinking of (or observing) someone relaxing in an ocean. So given a set of brain readings, a scientist or a computer might be able to say something like, “It is 20% more likely that he is thinking about relaxing in an ocean than that he is thinking about someone burning in a fire.”

Should we call this type of thing “mind reading”? We should not. A proper term for it is brain scan correlation analysis. But such a term does not attract press attention or investors, so people doing such brain scan correlation analysis might resort to hype, and call it “mind reading” instead. Is there much use that we can foresee for brain scan correlation analysis? Not really. It's probably a dead end. It's basically a kind of parlor trick or stunt, good for attracting a few headlines, but not much else.

In my local library there are many Chinese books I can't read. I might create a new technique for trying to understand Chinese. I might take pictures of the covers of the Chinese books, and run these images through a computer program that correlates certain pictures on the book cover with Chinese words on the book covers. I could probably get a few results I could brag about using such a technique, which might attract some press attention, with headlines about a new computer program that can read Chinese. But such a technique would really be a parlor trick and a dead end. I would never be able to take it much farther, and never be able to really understand Chinese by using such a technique. Such a technique would be similar to using our current type of brain scans to try to read minds.

The items being read in brain scanning are like cloudy blobs, which severely limits the amount of usable information that can be derived from them. If you consider that the same person will have a different set of cloudy blobs when thinking the same thing at two different times (which would differ from the set of cloudy blobs that some other person would produce), it is hard to foresee much use that could be made of such analytics. One application you can think of is creating some kind of lie detector that would work from analyzing brain scans (because the cloudy blobs might look different when someone is lying). But such an approach would probably not be any more accurate than the existing technology of a polygraph. 

 The cloudy blobs of brain scans

The headline in the story I have cited (referring to “the man who records and stores your thoughts, dreams and memories”) is utterly misleading. What is being recorded is the brain scans of people while they are having thoughts, dreams, or recollections, not the thoughts, dreams, and recollections themselves. The story implies that such storage may be useful because a science of some later age may be able to analyze the cloudy blobs of brain scans more accurately, so that they can figure out memories, thoughts, and dreams from studying these cloudy blobs. There is no reason to be hopeful that any such thing will ever happen. It seems like something along the lines of saying, “Freeze yourself at death, and science will be able to figure out how to revive your body.” We might be able to figure out exactly how thoughts and memories are stored in the brain, but that would require science vastly more advanced than the crude indirect techniques of brain scanning correlation analysis.

When will we actually have technology for reading minds? My guess is sometime between 50 years from now and never. Contrary to the hyped claims of modern would-be technological mind readers, we are simply nowhere near to understanding the mystery of how the brain stores memories and how it produces thoughts. Our knowledge of the matter is so limited that we are not even sure whether the brain is the sole agent involved in storing memory and producing thoughts. We might one day unravel such a mystery after many decades of additional study. Or we might never figure it out.

Two Reports of Autistic Mind Readers

Sometimes when nature takes away something, it seems to give something back in return. One such case seems to be the case of savants – people who have unusual mental abilities despite having other mental shortcomings. An example of a savant is Daniel Tammet, who has been diagnosed with Asperger Syndrome. He holds the European record for reciting Pi from memory, to 22,514 digits. Supposedly he learned the Icelandic language in only ten days. Another example of a savant is the late Kim Peek, who supposedly could accurately recall the details of 12,000 books he had read, despite having an IQ of only 87. Like several savants, he had the ability to instantly calculate the day of the week on which any person he met was born. You can find other similar cases on the web site of Darold Treffert, a doctor who has been studying such cases for many years.

In one article on the Scientific American blog, Treffert records the astonishing case of Leslie Lemke:

Leslie–blind, cognitively impaired and with such spasticity in his hands that he could not hold a fork or spoon to eat—had become a accomplished pianist, never having had a piano lesson in his life. Somehow the hand spasticity magically disappears when he sits at the keyboard. The 1983 60 Minutes program, which many still remember, recounted in detail the astonishment of Leslie’s mother, May Lemke, one evening, when Leslie, age 14, played back Tchaikovsky’s Piano Concerto No. 1 flawlessly, having heard it earlier for the first time that evening as the soundtrack to the movie Sincerely Yours.

This was apparently no fluke. As Treffert tells us about Leslie in another story, “He can remember a piece of any length and play it back flawlessly after a single hearing... Leslie will still play back and sing any song that an audience member might provide as a challenge and it is almost impossible to 'stump Leslie' however hard people try.”

Dr. Treffert has expressed interest in a recent case that might be the most spectacular case of a savant ever: the case of a young autistic Indian girl named Nandana who can supposedly read her mother's mind with a high degree of accuracy. The case was reported in this news feature.

Newspaper reporters visiting Nandana said, “We were left amazed and totally impressed when Nandana passed our tests with flying colors.” They tried a test in which the mother was given a piece of paper with the digits 044050799. The child then typed those digits exactly, which she apparently had not seen. In a second test the mother was given a note saying, “Can I have some warm water, please?” The child reproduced the text, with some spelling errors. The mother was then brought to a different room, and asked to think about an object. She thought of a biscuit. The child was brought back in from the other room, and specified biscuit as the object her mother was thinking of.

Recently there has appeared another case of an alleged autistic mind reader. This case seems to have been investigated under controlled scientific conditions. The reported results are as spectacular as the previously reported tests with Nandana.

The results were presented at the recent annual convention of the Parapsychological Association, in a paper entitled “Evidence for Telepathic Communication in a Nonverbal Autistic Child” written by Diane Hennacy Powell, MD. You can read the abstract here by scrolling down to page 25. Powell did experiments with an autistic girl named Hayley who can supposedly engage in telepathy with her therapists. The results reported below by Powell seem to be some of the most spectacular results ever reported in an ESP experiment:

Data from the first session with Therapist A includes 100% accuracy on three out of twenty image descriptions containing up to nine letters each, 60 to 100% accuracy on all three of the five-letter nonsense words, and 100% accuracy on two random numbers: one eight digits and the other nine. Data from the second session with Therapist A includes 100% accuracy on six out of twelve equations with 15 to 19 digits each, 100% accuracy on seven out of 20 image descriptions containing up to six letters, and between 81 to 100% accuracy on sentences of between 18 and 35 letters. Data from the session with Therapist B showed 100% accuracy with five out of twenty random numbers up to six digits in length, and 100% accuracy with five out of twelve image descriptions containing up to six letters. There was no evidence of cueing or fraud.

Powell presenting her research (credit: Parapsychological Association)

Skeptics might object that some subtle signals (either auditory or visual) may have been going on between the therapists and the child. But these results were produced under videotaped conditions, as Powell reports:

To assess for any possible visual and/or auditory cueing, five high
definition point-of-view (POV) cameras and three microphones were
strategically placed in the experimental space to capture coverage
of the entire room, the therapist and child, and their separate workspaces.
All cameras were synchronized and time-stamped.

This sounds like potentially bulletproof evidence for mind-reading. But there's only one problem: the tapes haven't been released. One Facebook user says that he was invited to watch the tapes, and that they are five hours of very convincing evidence. But until these tapes are released, not many doubters will be persuaded. I will update this blog post if the tapes are ever released. 

Postscript: Powell gives some more details here. She claims she hasn't posted the video to YouTube because the family wants to remain anonymous.  

Will You Experience Godlike Virtual Psychokinesis?

Imagine walking through a world in which you can control things with your mind. If you come to a closed door, you need merely think to yourself: open. Then the door will open. If you are attacked by someone charging you with a knife, you need merely think to yourself: burn. Then the assailant trying to kill you will catch on fire. Or if you are walking along and need a car, you need merely think to yourself: car, and a car will appear.

You may actually experience such a world in your lifetime, but it won't be real life. It will be virtual reality. But it may be so realistic it will seem just like real life, except for your godlike powers. In such a world you may have an ability to make some things happen just by thinking of them. In this virtual world you may feel like a god who can alter reality just by willing something.

Such a thing may be possible because virtual reality technology may be merged with mind-reading technology. The term “mind-reading technology” is somewhat misleading. It would probably be better to call such a technology “thought correlation technology.” The way it works is that the brain is scanned for some distinctive electrical pattern that corresponds to a particular thought. For example, scientists might get a hundred people to think of a dog, and try to look for a distinctive electrical pattern observed when people are thinking that thought. The scientists might then get a hundred people to think of a book, and try to look for a distinctive electrical pattern observed when people are thinking that thought. With sufficient practice, scientists might then be able to look at the electrical activity in someone's brain at a particular moment, and then guess whether the person was thinking of a dog or a book. 

Scientists have already made significant progress at such a task, as indicated by this link Mind-Reading Technology Speeds Ahead.  

If a great deal of progress is made in such technology, the creators of virtual reality worlds might be able to integrate mind-reading technology into their systems. The result might be a virtual reality system that requires two pieces of equipment. You would put on virtual reality glasses over your eyes. You would then put on some type of electrode cap over your head. The electrode cap would handle the mind-reading.

You would then enter a virtual world, in which you would be like the psychokinetic lead character in the movie Carrie, who can control matter just by willing it to move or burn. We can use the term virtual psychokinesis for such a system, in which you could alter a video game world just by thinking of things.

The ideal implementation of such a virtual reality system would be one in which you could think almost any thought, and it would materialize within the virtual reality world. For example, you might randomly think of Marilyn Monroe, and then, poof, you would see Marilyn Monroe within the video world, as a moving, talking 3D character. But the technology for a system that sophisticated is probably many centuries away. For one thing, we are unlikely to have anything like a general mind-reading system capable of recognizing almost any thought. The best we can hope for is a far cruder technology that simply consists of a few hundred cases (or a few thousand cases) in which we know what brain activity looks like when someone is thinking of a particular thing. For another thing, even if we could recognize almost any thought, it would be too hard to program a virtual world in which almost any thing could be brought into existence by your thoughts.

But developers could still create an exciting virtual reality system that recognized only a small number of thoughts. A user might be advised of a certain limited number of thoughts that the system can accept. For example, an instruction booklet might say, “If you want to destroy an attacker, think of fire or think of the opponent being instantly frozen.” Or the booklet might say, “If you need transportation in the virtual world, think of a car or think of a horse.”

Some might think that introducing such a feature might make the virtual world seem less realistic, but it might not be worse than some things in current video games. For example, let's take the popular video game Red Dead Redemption, in which you become a cowboy in the old West. In that game every time you want to switch from a lasso to a gun, you have to click a button, go to a menu, and choose one of the two items from the menu. That almost spoils the fun by reminding you: this is just a video game. If you had a virtual reality system in which you do things just by thinking about them, you wouldn't have this problem. There wouldn't be any pop-up interface to remind you: this isn't real life.

Let's imagine how you might feel in such a virtual world, in which you can make things happen just by thinking particular thoughts. You might feel like some kind of deity. You might say to yourself: I am the one lord of this domain. I can destroy my opponents merely by thinking of how they should be destroyed. I can make matter change its appearance merely by willing that it change its appearance in some way. Like a deity, I can bring into existence new objects merely by thinking that they should exist. This truly is godhood. I can perform stunning miracles solely through the awesome power of my mighty mind.

And then, when your virtual reality session ended, you would take off your goggles, and go back to your meek little existence as a subservient corporate serf.