Contrarian Predictions Regarding Biology, the Brain and Technology

I will now offer some predictions regarding the future. I won't do much to explain the conceptual outlook that motivates these predictions. But anyone reading the posts on this blog and this blog can read about some of the evidence that motivates these predictions.

Prediction #1: No place in the brain outside of the cell nucleus will be found to have the stability needed to store memories for decades; and no evidence will be found that episodic memories or learned knowledge are stored in the cell nucleus.

Today's neuroscientists typically claim that memories are stored in the synapses of the brain. But there is a reason why we should reject this claim: we know that the proteins that make up synapses are very short-lived, having average lifetimes of only a few weeks. Such an average lifetime of a synapse protein is only a thousandth of the length of time that humans can remember things (many seniors having good memories of things that happened more than 50 years old). I predict that nothing will be discovered that resolves this discrepancy. I predict that our neuroscientists will never discover any place in the brain that is a suitable stable storage place for 50-year-old memories. No place in the brain will be found that is both stable and offers lots of storage room for all the memories humans have. DNA in the cell nucleus is stable, but its storage space is already used up by genomic information.

Prediction #2: There will not be discovered in the brain anything like a neural positioning system or a neural indexing system or anything else that would be useful in explaining how a brain could instantly retrieve memories.

Humans are able to retrieve memories instantly, even memories of knowledge they haven't thought about in years. But the human brain seems to have nothing that might explain this speed of recall. There are two things that can enable fast retrieval in a system: a positioning system and indexing. A simple book has both. The positioning system is the page numbering. The indexing appears at the back of the book. I predict that nothing like these things will be discovered in the brain, or anything else that might explain how instant memory recall could be accomplished by a brain. By a "neural positioning system" I refer not to some neural system for finding a human's position in the world, but to a system that might allow one part of the brain to quickly read from some precise tiny location far away in the brain. 

Prediction #3: No type of encoding scheme will ever be discovered by which learned knowledge or episodic memories could be stored as neural states.

A typical neuroscientist claims that memories are stored in the brain. But learned knowledge or episodic memories can't simply be poured into little spots of the brain like someone might pour tea into a tea cup. If the brain stores memories as neural states, there would need to be some type of encoding scheme by which information and sensory experience was translated into neural states. No such encoding scheme has ever been discovered, and I predict that it never will be discovered. The genetic code was discovered about 1950, and we are many decades overdue for a discovery of a “neural code.” Such a code will not be discovered because it doesn't exist. It doesn't exist because our memories and learned knowledge are not actually stored in our brains (a statement I make for the 30 reasons discussed here).

Prediction #4: Other than genetic and epigenetic information in the nucleus of neurons, no sign will ever be found of encoded information stored in the brain.

Even if you have no idea what encoding system was used to encode some information, you can still discover evidence that encoded information exists. Before Europeans were able to unravel how hieroglyphics worked, they knew that hieroglyphics contained encoded information. Such Europeans were able to see many repeated symbols, and these are the hallmarks of encoded information. 

Repeated symbols in hieroglyphics

In the case of the brain, we know there is one type of encoded information in it. That information is the DNA information found in all neurons and in all other cells. But other than this genetic information, no real sign of encoded information has ever been discovered in the brain. Synapses (the alleged storage place of memories) have been examined at very high resolutions using instruments such as electron microscopes, and no sign of encoded information has ever been found in synapses. I predict that scientists never will discover any sign of encoded information in the brain, other than the genetic and epigenetic information in the nucleus. There will never be some “Eureka” moment when scientists discover tiny little repeated symbols in synapses.

Prediction #5: It will never be possible to enhance human memory by downloading information into a brain.

If you believe that memories are stored in the brain, you should believe in a technological possibility: that it will be possible to download knowledge into a brain, through some technology that writes information to your synapses. I predict that such a technology will never exist.

Prediction #6: It will never be possible to make computers with a general purpose intelligence.

Computers are getting more and more proficient, partially because computers are getting faster, and partially because more and more human logic, information and data is being transferred to computers. We have heard a lot of hype about artificial intelligence. But nothing like a general computer intelligence has ever appeared. I predict that such a thing never will appear. Computers do not actually understand anything, and have never had anything like human cognition or human self-hood. There is no imaginable technological path that might lead to a machine with actual consciousness, self-hood and understanding such as humans have. Because human understanding and intelligence is not actually caused by the brain, it will not be possible to make machines conscious or cognizant by leveraging any type of “mind from matter” principle discovered by studying the human brain.

Prediction #7: It will never be possible to upload a human mind into a computer or a robot.

Darwinist materialism has always had many similarities to a religion, and we now see the philosophy of transhumanism supplying a kind of finishing touch to this stealth religion. That finishing touch is the eschatological idea that humans will be able to gain immortality by uploading their minds into computers or robots. I predict that such a thing will never occur. It is not possible because the brain does not actually store a human's memories, and is not actually the source or cause of human consciousness. If you are sad about not being able to upload your mind into a computer or a robot, do not be. The very reasons for thinking that such a thing is impossible are reasons for thinking that your consciousness will continue after your death. If you mind is not being generated by your brain (or an aspect of your brain), and your memories are not stored in your brain, there is every reason to suspect that your self-hood will continue after your brain stops functioning (as we seem to see occurring when people report near-death experiences).

Prediction #8: There will continue to be discovered cases in which people have good memories and good minds despite very large brain damage.

We already have very many cases of people with good memories and good minds, despite very large brain damage. These include hemispherectomy patients who had half of their brains removed, and people such as John Lorber's patients who lost most of their brains due to disease. Since such cases are caused by a very real aspect of reality (that neither intelligence nor memory is brain-caused),  additional cases of this type will continue to be discovered. 

Prediction #9: All attempts to reproduce the origin of life by mimicking chemical conditions in the early earth will fail, and scientists will not even be able to produce a single functional protein through any simulation of early earth conditions.

For more than a century scientists have been trying to reproduce the origin of life by doing laboratory experiments. They have basically accomplished nothing by all this work. The most they have ever produced is a few types of amino acids, only the simplest types. Contrary to the misleading hype that has been written, amino acids are not at all the building blocks of life. They are merely the building blocks of the building blocks of life. The actual building blocks of life are things such as proteins and nucleic acids. Even the simplest living thing requires 100+ types of proteins, but scientists have never produced even a single functional protein in any experiment simulating conditions on the early earth. I predict that they never will produce any functional protein in any experiment simulating conditions on the early earth, and will therefore have no success in trying to reproduce the origin of life by simulating early earth conditions.

Prediction #10: Good evidence for psychic phenomena and the paranormal will continue to accumulate, with new types of paranormal phenomena appearing; but the majority of scientists will long continue to ignore such evidence. 

The evidence for psychic phenomena (such as ESP, apparitions and near-death experiences) is vast, but it has been almost totally ignored by mainstream scientists.  I predict that the majority of scientists will continue for many years in their "heads in the sand" attitude towards very important paranormal phenomena.  Such an attitude is caused by an entrenched belief system (strongly resembling a religion) that has become popular among scientists.  When entrenched belief systems have been discredited by observations, such belief systems often continue to persist for a long, long time, because of a kind of ideological inertia, in which people think to themselves, "I will keep believing as I have believed for so long" or "I will keep believing as my teachers taught." I predict that novel and unprecedented forms of paranormal phenomena will be observed in the next few decades, as has actually occurred during recent years (as shown in the 1500+ photos here, here, and here).  

Prediction #11: It will not be possible to enhance the human mind by adding new neurons or neuron-equivalents, through technology or genetic engineering, although it may be possible to enhance the human mind by some technique that has the effect of turning off some brain activity or reducing brain activity. 

Since the human brain is not the source of the human mind, there will be no successful attempts to increase the human mind by adding more neurons or (electronic neuron-equivalents). But it could be that the brain acts like a valve or limitation device, limiting human consciousness. Because of the latter possibility, it may be possible to enhance the human mind through some method that limits brain activity or turns off some of the neurons in our brain. Such a thing might be accomplished genetically, electronically or chemically. 

A Note to Future "Accuracy Checkers"

Let's suppose you are a person in the future (maybe a year or two from now) checking my list of predictions, and trying to find one that failed.  You might have little difficulty in seeming to find such a failure if you fall "hook, line and sinker" for some of the enormous amount of hype, exaggeration and misinformation that appears in the science literature, particularly in science popularization web sites.  As discussed at length here, there is an epidemic of exaggeration and unwarranted claims in the science world nowadays, much of it coming from university press offices which churn out press release headlines that do not actually match what was shown in the scientific study being discussed. In addition, a large fraction of scientific papers make causal claims that are not actually justified by their data.  So before citing some scientific paper that you think discredits one of the predictions here, ask yourself: did the paper really prove what is claimed in its title or in the headline of its press release? 

Postscript: As of early 2025, these predictions are all holding up just fine. Don't be fooled by claims that artificial general intelligence is near. Progress by systems such as ChatGPT is almost entirely not any real artificial intelligence progress, but instead an affair in which phrases and sentences are being stolen from human writers, and repackaged and transfigured in various ways that make it hard or impossible to trace exactly which humans had their words stolen. Systems such as ChatGPT appeared to get semi-smart mainly by traversing the internet and scooping up billions and billions of human-written sentences. 

There are various "smoke and mirrors" techniques that neuroscientists sometimes use to create impressions of having done things they have not done. One technique involves collecting brain waves or brain images by EEG or fMRI, and then combining that with other data streams, with a triumphal announcement that this or that thing was done by reading the brain or reading the mind. The trick is that the thing accomplished could typically have been done without any brain data at all, or with only brain data caused by eye muscle movements. So, for example, some system may pick up EEG brain readings, along with readings of eye movements, from a paralyzed person; and it may be proclaimed that some effect (such as movement in a video game) was read "from the brain," even though what is mainly being picked up is eye movements, or EEG traces or artifacts of eye movements. Or, some data backdoor such as photo annotations may be used, by which non-neural data is sneaked in, with an announcement made that something was done "by reading the brain," there being no mention of how that thing was mainly accomplished by use of the data backdoor. 

The BRAIN Initiative's Floundering Quest for a Mechanistic Account of Mind

The BRAIN Initiative is a multi-year big-science project launched during the Obama administration in 2013. It started off in 2014 with a budget of about $110 million, and its funding has increased in subsequent years, with some estimating that it may use up billions in funding before it is finished. One of its documents claims on page 121 that the BRAIN Initiative ”will require new and distinct funding of between 300-500 million per year." Too bad the program consists largely of not-terribly-useful research designed to try to prove an extremely dubious mechanistic ideology about the mind.

The assumptions behind the project are made clear in a document called Brain 2025: A Scientific Vision, which is offered at one of the project's two main web sites. The “scientific vision” laid out in the document is largely an ideological vision, based on the far-fetched idea that the human mind is merely the product of the brain. The dubious ideology of the authors is made clear in the very first sentence of the document, in which the authors state, “The human brain is the source of our thoughts, emotions, perceptions, actions, and memories; it confers on us the abilities that make us human, while simultaneously making each of us unique.” It has certainly not been proven that any brain has ever generated a thought or stored a memory.

In fact, later in the document the authors confess, “We do not yet have a systematic theory of how information is encoded in the chemical and electrical activity of neurons, how it is fused to determine behavior on short time scales, and how it is used to adapt, refine, and learn behaviors on longer time scales.” This is certainly true. No one has anything like a systematic theory of how a brain could store memories as neural states, nor has anyone come up with anything like a systematic theory of how a brain could generate a thought. So why, then, does the document start out by stating that “the human brain is the source of our thoughts, emotions, perceptions, actions, and memories”? No one has any business making such a claim unless he first has “ a systematic theory of how information is encoded in the chemical and electrical activity of neurons,” but the document admits that no such theory exists.

The document makes clear that the main purpose of the BRAIN Initiative will be to shore up mechanistic ideas about the human mind. The document states, “The most important outcome of the BRAIN Initiative will be a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of mental function that emerges from synergistic application of the new technologies and conceptual structures developed under the BRAIN Initiative.” That makes it pretty clear that the project is ideology-driven. The idea that mental function can be explained mechanistically is a very doubtful piece of ideology inconsistent with many forms of evidence. One of these forms of evidence involves the many cases of minds that worked well after half or more of the brain was lost to injury, disease or surgery. Another such form of evidence is that scientists cannot find any plausible storage place in the brain where memories could be stored for 50 years, synapses (subject to very rapid molecular turnover) being no such thing.

What are some of the things that this BRAIN Initiative will be spending money on? Most of the project's money will apparently be spent as follows:

1. Trying to develop new tools to study the brain.
2. Creating circuit maps of the brain.
3. Identifying various types of brain cells.
4. Playing around with zapping people's brains in various different ways.

There is no reason to believe that any of this activity will actually result in the project's goal of a “comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of mental function” or even something much smaller, a fragmentary mechanistic understanding of mental function. There is no “circuit map” that we can possibly imagine that would allow us to understand how neurons might produce thoughts, how neural activity could result in such a thing as selfhood, or how human episodic memories could ever be stored as neural states. No real insight into such things has been produced by previous efforts to identify different types of brain cells or map out the connections of the brain. So why should we believe that any further insight on these matters will come from further activity along these lines?

In a section entitled “Manipulating circuit activity,” the Brain 2025 document tries to suggest that electrically zapping people's brains might tell us something about memory. It says, “In the 1950s, Penfield’s electrical stimulation experiments suggested that a memory or thought could be elicited by activating neurons in the underlying network.” But the document fails to tell us that a review of 80 years of electrical stimulation of the brain found that it was very rare for people to recall anything during electrical stimulation of the brain and that “Overall, only one patient reported what appeared to be a clearly detailed episodic memory for which he spontaneously specified that he had never thought about it.” But nonetheless the BRAIN Initiative fellows expressed great enthusiasm for monkeying with people's brains. After noting approvingly that “stimulating electrodes are being placed in human patients,” the BRAIN 2025 document says, “Entirely new tools could be developed based on magnetic stimulation, gases, infrared excitation, ultrasound, or organic or physical chemistry to allow access to neurons deep within the brain.” It sounds like their plan is kind of like this:

So far the BRAIN Initiative has been running for four or five years, and has accomplished nothing extremely noteworthy. Our understanding of the brain has not dramatically advanced during those four or five years, and all the old mysteries of mind and memory seem as mysterious as ever. At this “Achievements” link there is a discussion of what the BRAIN Initiative has accomplished so far. At the top of the text is a big bold headline saying “Transformative Advances,” but the BRAIN Initiative has produced no such transformative advances. Go beyond the flashy spin on the web site, the high-tech glitter, and the discussion of things in progress that haven't yet yielded much, and you have not a single major accomplishment relating to our understanding of the mind or memory. You see in this section a video entitled “The BRAIN Initiative – the First Five Years.” The video fails to list a single accomplishment of the BRAIN Initiative. Apparently all this work to mechanistically explain the mind is pretty much a flop and a failure so far.

About the only memorable thing mentioned in the BRAIN Initiative's list of accomplishments is a description of some “brain interface” by which a paralyzed person was able to use to raise a robot arm to bring a cup to his mouth. Such an interface doesn't seem very impressive when you consider that the same effect could have been achieved much less expensively and more simply by using a 1990's-style voice-based interface that would respond to a command such as “raise arm.”

I predict that even after spending billions, the BRAIN Initiative will by 2025 produce no big breakthrough in our understanding of mind, memory or consciousness. All attempts to understand such things through mechanistic methods (such as creating circuit diagrams or zapping brains) are doomed to failure. The reason is that mind, memory and consciousness are not mechanistic products of the brain, but are aspects of a human soul or spirit that cannot be understood by analyzing electricity, neurons and chemistry. If our minds were produced by brains and our memories were stored in brains, we would have already discovered by now “smoking guns” of such mechanistic effects; but no such things have been found.

We found in the 1950's that all cells have encoded information in the form of the genetic information in DNA. If our brain cells contained encoded memory information, we would have discovered abundant fingerprints of such a thing during the twentieth century. But even though it is 65 years after DNA was discovered, and even though our electron microscopes can see things 1000 times smaller than synapses, no one has discovered any proof of memories encoded in neurons. Such a mechanistic encoding would require thousands of dedicated genes, to accomplish the gigantic task of translating our experience and ideas into neuron states; but not one such gene has been found, even though the human genome has been thoroughly studied. There is one scientific study claiming to have found correlation evidence for such memory-encoding genes, but the study's methodology is quite goofy, for the reasons discussed at the end of this post. 

A better approach for gaining insight about the mind would be one that focused on extraordinary human experiences, and people having ordinary mind and memory function despite extraordinary brain states. This would involve studying all the people whose minds functioned well even after they lost vast parts of their brains due to surgery or disease, all the people with phenomenal memories despite having ordinary brains, and all the people having extraordinary experiences such as near-death experiences and out-of-body experiences, often while their brains were shut down. Such a study approach would tend to shed light on how mechanistic neuroscientists are making the wrong assumptions about the brain. 

Postscript: A long 2019 article in the Atlantic discusses the poor results of the Human Brain Project (HBP). The author states, "the people I contacted struggled to name a major contribution that the HBP has made in the past decade."

In this 2018 post above I stated, "I predict that even after spending billions, the BRAIN Initiative will by 2025 produce no big breakthrough in our understanding of mind, memory or consciousness." It is now 2026, and it clear that this prediction was correct. No neuroscientist have ever produced any "big breakthrough in our understanding of mind, memory or consciousness."