The extraterrestrial
spaceship appeared suddenly in orbit around Earth. People were not
impressed by its size, since it was only 60 meters in length.
Everyone waited anxiously to learn some sign of the visitor's
intentions. At 10:00 PM on July 23, the visitors from far away
announced their intentions. People all over the world suddenly saw on
their television screens and computer screens two words that flashed
over and over again: the words SURRENDER NOW.
The President of the United
States held a meeting with his generals to discuss the new threat.
“How big a threat are these
aliens?” asked the President.
“I think we can handle
them,” said General Paulsen. “They have only one ship, which
isn't very big, smaller than one of our aircraft carriers. We've
taken close-up photos of the ship with our best telescopes, and can
see no sign of weaponry on the thing.”
“What about the possibility
of an offensive strike against the ship?” asked the President.
“We are preparing such an
option,” said General Paulsen. “We are working with NASA to
launch into space modified ICBM's that can be used to launch a
nuclear strike against the alien spaceship, if necessary.”
“Fantastic,” said the
President. “If they mess with us, we'll grind them into dust.”
The President went on
television to deliver a speech to the American people. He knew the
whole world was listening.
“Our great nation has
faced this challenge before, when Nazi Germany declared war on us,”
said the President. “We rose to the challenge then, and we will
rise to the challenge now. Your government is united in absolute
determination to resist these invaders to the last ounce of our
energy. We call on all citizens to join our defense efforts, in a
great patriotic tide that will drown any invasion that arrives at our
doorsteps. We will resist to the last drop of our blood.”
NASA and the military readied
the rocket launches that would carry the nuclear missiles into space.
American citizens were organized into home defense units. Citizens
used their pistols and shotguns in their backyards, to practice
blowing up aliens.
The spaceship from another
planet then launched its only attack against Earth. It was an
invisible attack, too small to be seen by the human eye.
The attack consisted of
swarms of tiny flying electronic nano-devices, each the size of a
grain of sand. One swarm went towards Washington D.C. The
nano-devices had been supplied with information allowing them to find
the centers of power in Washington: the White House and the Capitol
building.
One of the nano-devices flew
right through a door in the White House. No one noticed it because of
its tiny size. The nano-device flew into the Oval Office, and
detected the President of the United States sitting at his desk. The
device flew into the President's left ear.
The President noticed a tiny
little itch in his ear, and scratched it, but paid no further
attention to it. Meanwhile, the little nano-device traveled towards
the President's brain. The device broke up into a swarm of smaller
units that made their way into the President's brain. The smaller
units began reprogramming the President's mind.
Something similar happened in
the Capitol building. A swarm of flying nano-devices entered the
building one by one, each too small to be noticed. Each of the tiny
devices entered into the ear of a congressman or senator.
The same thing was happening
in Moscow, Beijing, and other world cities.
The President consulted with
congressional leaders, and then asked all the main leaders of the
world to meet with him in Washington D.C. After a five-hour private
meeting, the President gave a speech to announce the results to the
world.
“I and the other leaders of
the world have decided with complete unanimity how we will react to
the demands of the alien spaceship,” said the President. “The
wise course we have chosen is
very simple. We have decided
that the only sensible course is one of absolute and complete
surrender.”
The audience gasped.
“The US Congress has just
passed a law approving this decision,” said the President. “We
are laying down all our weapons. Our masters from the sky will soon
arrive. We must follow their commands with absolute obedience, like
little children following the orders of their mother. We must welcome
and bow before our alien overlords, and give them our lifelong
subservience. They are the masters, and we must be their loyal
slaves.”
A craft from the alien
spaceship then landed on the White House lawn. Out of the craft
emerged small blue creatures only twenty inches tall. No one opposed
the little creatures as they walked into the White House. The White
House's flag post was waving a white flag.
The aliens thought they had
taken over the planet without firing a shot. But outside the halls of
government, in the halls of schools and apartment buildings and
offices, a massive tide of resistance started to organize.
The heroic resisters soon
discovered the ultimate defensive weapon against the aliens: the
common earplug.
Header 1
Our future, our universe, and other weighty topics
Monday, February 17, 2014
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Is There Any Flab in Nature's Fundamental Blueprint?
An interesting question to
consider is whether the universe is built on a kind of blueprint that
has a significant amount of excess or flab. If we look at the
fundamental layout of particles, and find a great deal of excess and
waste, this might perhaps tend to confirm the suspicions of many
pessimistic thinkers that the universe is the daughter of pure blind
chance.
Below is a typical diagram used to illustrate the Standard Model of particle physics, which is the closest thing we have to nature's fundamental blueprint.
Where here can we find some flab in nature – something that is hanging around, but is not needed?
We certainly could not get along without the Up quark or the Down quark, because they are the constituents of the protons and neutrons that make up the nucleus of an atom. There are two Up quarks and one Down quark in a proton, and two Down quarks and one Up quark in a neutron.
We also could not get along without the electron, as it is a vital part of any atom. As for the photon, that is certainly needed, as sunlight itself consists of photons. The gluon is needed because it is believed to play a key role in the strong nuclear force that holds together the nucleus of the atom.
There are also reasons (much less obvious) why we need the three types of neutrinos in the Standard Model (the electron neutrino, the muon neutrino, and the tau neutrino). Although they might seem to be useless “ghost particles,” neutrinos are a critical element in supernovae explosions, the explosions of stars which create and spread around all of the heavier elements that are used in our civilization. Among the elements believed to be created entirely by supernova explosions are nickel, copper, zinc, germanium, selenium, tin, silver, gold, lead, and uranium. According to this link almost all of the energy of a particular supernova was transmitted through neutrinos. So we can't classify any of the neutrinos as being flabby parts of nature's blueprint. Living in an advanced industrial civilization, we can't dismiss as “useless” particles such as neutrinos that help to spread around the heavy elements needed for an advanced industrial civilization.
As for the W boson and Z boson particles, they are believed to play a crucial role in the weak nuclear force, which is believed to be important in supernova explosions. Such explosions are very useful for any industrial civilization needing heavy elements such as the elements listed above. This scientific paper says that there would not be enough oxygen if we did not have the weak nuclear force.
Not shown in the diagram above (but shown in other diagrams of the Standard Model) is the Higgs boson. That particle is believed to be vitally necessary because it helps to give mass to other vitally needed particles, as explained here.
So far we have found everything in the Standard Model to be useful. But we still have not discussed some particles that have sometimes been described as superfluous particles: the Charm quark, the Strange quark, the Top quark, the Bottom quark, the tau particle, and the muon particle.
Here is an example of a scientist (Sean M. Carroll) who makes an argument that some of these particles show a case of flab or excess in nature, perhaps suggesting a poor design:
But in fact there is a better reason to be skeptical of the fine-tuning claim: the indisputable fact that there are many features of the laws of nature which don't seem delicately adjusted at all, but seem completely irrelevant to the existence of life. In a cosmological context, the most obvious example is the sheer vastness of the universe; it would hardly seem necessary to make so many galaxies just so that life could arise on a single planet around a single star. But to me a more pointed observation is the existence of ''generations'' of elementary particles. All of the ordinary matter in the universe seems to be made out of two types of quarks (up and down) and two types of leptons (electrons and electron neutrinos), as well as the various force-carrying particles. But this pattern of quarks and leptons is repeated threefold: the up and down quarks are joined by four more types, just as the electron and its neutrino are joined by two electron-type particles and two more neutrinos. As far as life is concerned, these particles are completely superfluous. All of the processes we observe in the everyday workings of the universe would go on in essentially the same way if those particles didn't exist. Why do the constituents of nature exhibit this pointless duplication, if the laws of nature were constructed with life in mind?
The previous paragraph is very densely packed with absurd and misleading reasoning. The first ludicrous claim (strangely referred to as “most obvious”) is that the vastness of the universe is somehow an argument against the idea that it is fine-tuned, with the lame suggestion that an intelligent designer would only be interested in creating one planet with life on it (rather than many planets with life). That is one of the silliest arguments I have ever heard, and makes as much sense as arguing that if there were a writer he would write no more than one sentence, being forever satisfied with having created just one. The next mistake is in insinuating that the second and third “generations” of quarks are somehow an example of superfluous excess. Carroll knows full well that the second and third “generations” of quarks have lifetimes of less than a millionth of a second, and that they decay into the very Up quarks and Down quarks that make up protons and neutrons, and are therefore absolutely necessary for our existence. More than 99.99999999999% of the quarks that actually exist in our galaxy are Down quarks and Up quarks (the other types never existing for more than a millionth of a second, and only in particle accelerators and a few freaky stars). The same thing is true for the tau and muon particles, which last than less than a second, and decay into the electron particle that is essential for our existence. So to complain of “pointless duplication” is wrong. There is no such duplication. The particles that Carroll calls “completely superfluous” particles are the direct ancestors of the vitally necessary particles, and are no more superfluous than your grandmother was superfluous to your existence.
For physicists to speak of “generations” here is very apt to give you the wrong idea, because when you hear the term generation you think of the forty years of a human generation. But in reality the second and third “generations” of quarks exist for less than a millionth of a second before decaying (directly or indirectly) into the vitally necessary first generation. Complaining about that length of time as some example of wastefulness is like complaining if a short-order cook takes a millionth of a second to make your food.
As for the neutrino particles, it may be technically correct to say “the processes we observe in the everyday workings of the universe would go on in essentially the same way if those particles didn't exist.” But that is a very misleading turn of phrase, because as discussed earlier, if those neutrinos hadn't existed, supernova explosions (not an everyday occurrence) wouldn't work, the heavier elements would not have got spread around, and we wouldn't have here on Earth many of the elements used for industrial civilization. So neutrinos also cannot at all be classified as useless excess particles, some flab in nature's blueprint.
I will now introduce two tables that will help to clarify these points. The first table is an improved table showing the particles of the Standard Model, a table that will make clear which particles are stable particles lasting longer than a second, and which particles are short-lived particles lasting less than a second. The stable particles are shown in blue. All other particles have lifetimes of only a tiny fraction of a second.
In judging whether there is flab in the Standard Model, we really need concern ourselves only with the particles shown in blue above. For the reasons given earlier, all of these particles are necessary. We know that neutrinos are necessary for the production of heavy elements in supernovae explosions. I don't think any one has ever done an analysis judging whether we would have as many heavy elements if one of these three types of neutrinos did not exist, so we should assume for now that all three are necessary for a universe with as many useful heavy elements as we have.
Another useful table is the table below. In this list I list each type of particle in the Standard Model, and I explain why each type of particle is relevant to life or civilization (in the sense of either being directly necessary itself for life or advanced civilization, or a particle that is a predecessor of some other particle that is relevant to life or civilization). The decay paths shown are typical decay paths, among the most common (a particle will often have multiple ways of decaying). To save space, I have not listed all the particles produced in the decays described, but only the relevant ones.
Notice the important summary at the bottom of the chart. Considering only regular matter (not antimatter), and considering a particle to be relevant to life or civilization if it is either directly relevant or decays into some other particle that is relevant to life or civilization, I find that there are zero unnecessary stable particles, and zero particles irrelevant to life or civilization.
Like most tables summarizing the Standard Model, these visuals do not depict any antiparticles. But what if we were to consider antiparticles? Aren't antiparticles a great example of pure flab in nature's fundamental blueprint?
There are two reasons why antiparticles should not be considered as flab in nature's fundamental blueprint. The first reason is that there seem to be subtle reasons why our universe would not work right or not be stable if antiparticles did not exist. In his book Symmetry and the Beautiful Universe (page 234), Nobel Prize winning physicist Leon M. Lederman suggests complicated reasons why “the whole universe could not be stable” if antiparticles were not part of the overall blueprint.
The second reason is simply that antiparticles don't exist in nature for more than a tiny fraction of a second. This is because whenever an antiparticle comes into contact with a regular particle, both are converted into energy. As there seems to be no evidence that even 0.00000000001 percent of the universe is antimatter, one can't plausibly cite antimatter as an example of flab in nature's fundamental blueprint.
Could we perhaps cite dark matter or dark energy as an example of flab in nature's fundamental blueprint? No, not at all. Neither dark matter nor dark energy is covered by the Standard Model, so we are pretty “in the dark” here (pardon the pun). But scientists do think that dark matter seems to be a vital element in explaining the current structure of the universe, and that galaxies would not even hold together without it. Scientists also say that galaxies would not have expanded at a suitable rate (and galaxies would not have formed) if dark energy did not exist.
So we have looked for flab in nature's fundamental blueprint, and we have come up short. The blueprint seems to be flab-free. We might say that nature's fundamental blueprint is lean and mean. Metaphorically, we might say it is composed essentially of nothing but muscle and bone.
We can easily imagine a universe with lots of flab in its fundamental blueprint, a universe with thousands of different types of stable particles cluttering up space, with only a few of them being the type that combine together to make atoms. Our universe has no resemblance to such a universe.
Below is a typical diagram used to illustrate the Standard Model of particle physics, which is the closest thing we have to nature's fundamental blueprint.
Where here can we find some flab in nature – something that is hanging around, but is not needed?
We certainly could not get along without the Up quark or the Down quark, because they are the constituents of the protons and neutrons that make up the nucleus of an atom. There are two Up quarks and one Down quark in a proton, and two Down quarks and one Up quark in a neutron.
We also could not get along without the electron, as it is a vital part of any atom. As for the photon, that is certainly needed, as sunlight itself consists of photons. The gluon is needed because it is believed to play a key role in the strong nuclear force that holds together the nucleus of the atom.
There are also reasons (much less obvious) why we need the three types of neutrinos in the Standard Model (the electron neutrino, the muon neutrino, and the tau neutrino). Although they might seem to be useless “ghost particles,” neutrinos are a critical element in supernovae explosions, the explosions of stars which create and spread around all of the heavier elements that are used in our civilization. Among the elements believed to be created entirely by supernova explosions are nickel, copper, zinc, germanium, selenium, tin, silver, gold, lead, and uranium. According to this link almost all of the energy of a particular supernova was transmitted through neutrinos. So we can't classify any of the neutrinos as being flabby parts of nature's blueprint. Living in an advanced industrial civilization, we can't dismiss as “useless” particles such as neutrinos that help to spread around the heavy elements needed for an advanced industrial civilization.
As for the W boson and Z boson particles, they are believed to play a crucial role in the weak nuclear force, which is believed to be important in supernova explosions. Such explosions are very useful for any industrial civilization needing heavy elements such as the elements listed above. This scientific paper says that there would not be enough oxygen if we did not have the weak nuclear force.
Not shown in the diagram above (but shown in other diagrams of the Standard Model) is the Higgs boson. That particle is believed to be vitally necessary because it helps to give mass to other vitally needed particles, as explained here.
So far we have found everything in the Standard Model to be useful. But we still have not discussed some particles that have sometimes been described as superfluous particles: the Charm quark, the Strange quark, the Top quark, the Bottom quark, the tau particle, and the muon particle.
Here is an example of a scientist (Sean M. Carroll) who makes an argument that some of these particles show a case of flab or excess in nature, perhaps suggesting a poor design:
But in fact there is a better reason to be skeptical of the fine-tuning claim: the indisputable fact that there are many features of the laws of nature which don't seem delicately adjusted at all, but seem completely irrelevant to the existence of life. In a cosmological context, the most obvious example is the sheer vastness of the universe; it would hardly seem necessary to make so many galaxies just so that life could arise on a single planet around a single star. But to me a more pointed observation is the existence of ''generations'' of elementary particles. All of the ordinary matter in the universe seems to be made out of two types of quarks (up and down) and two types of leptons (electrons and electron neutrinos), as well as the various force-carrying particles. But this pattern of quarks and leptons is repeated threefold: the up and down quarks are joined by four more types, just as the electron and its neutrino are joined by two electron-type particles and two more neutrinos. As far as life is concerned, these particles are completely superfluous. All of the processes we observe in the everyday workings of the universe would go on in essentially the same way if those particles didn't exist. Why do the constituents of nature exhibit this pointless duplication, if the laws of nature were constructed with life in mind?
The previous paragraph is very densely packed with absurd and misleading reasoning. The first ludicrous claim (strangely referred to as “most obvious”) is that the vastness of the universe is somehow an argument against the idea that it is fine-tuned, with the lame suggestion that an intelligent designer would only be interested in creating one planet with life on it (rather than many planets with life). That is one of the silliest arguments I have ever heard, and makes as much sense as arguing that if there were a writer he would write no more than one sentence, being forever satisfied with having created just one. The next mistake is in insinuating that the second and third “generations” of quarks are somehow an example of superfluous excess. Carroll knows full well that the second and third “generations” of quarks have lifetimes of less than a millionth of a second, and that they decay into the very Up quarks and Down quarks that make up protons and neutrons, and are therefore absolutely necessary for our existence. More than 99.99999999999% of the quarks that actually exist in our galaxy are Down quarks and Up quarks (the other types never existing for more than a millionth of a second, and only in particle accelerators and a few freaky stars). The same thing is true for the tau and muon particles, which last than less than a second, and decay into the electron particle that is essential for our existence. So to complain of “pointless duplication” is wrong. There is no such duplication. The particles that Carroll calls “completely superfluous” particles are the direct ancestors of the vitally necessary particles, and are no more superfluous than your grandmother was superfluous to your existence.
For physicists to speak of “generations” here is very apt to give you the wrong idea, because when you hear the term generation you think of the forty years of a human generation. But in reality the second and third “generations” of quarks exist for less than a millionth of a second before decaying (directly or indirectly) into the vitally necessary first generation. Complaining about that length of time as some example of wastefulness is like complaining if a short-order cook takes a millionth of a second to make your food.
As for the neutrino particles, it may be technically correct to say “the processes we observe in the everyday workings of the universe would go on in essentially the same way if those particles didn't exist.” But that is a very misleading turn of phrase, because as discussed earlier, if those neutrinos hadn't existed, supernova explosions (not an everyday occurrence) wouldn't work, the heavier elements would not have got spread around, and we wouldn't have here on Earth many of the elements used for industrial civilization. So neutrinos also cannot at all be classified as useless excess particles, some flab in nature's blueprint.
I will now introduce two tables that will help to clarify these points. The first table is an improved table showing the particles of the Standard Model, a table that will make clear which particles are stable particles lasting longer than a second, and which particles are short-lived particles lasting less than a second. The stable particles are shown in blue. All other particles have lifetimes of only a tiny fraction of a second.
In judging whether there is flab in the Standard Model, we really need concern ourselves only with the particles shown in blue above. For the reasons given earlier, all of these particles are necessary. We know that neutrinos are necessary for the production of heavy elements in supernovae explosions. I don't think any one has ever done an analysis judging whether we would have as many heavy elements if one of these three types of neutrinos did not exist, so we should assume for now that all three are necessary for a universe with as many useful heavy elements as we have.
Another useful table is the table below. In this list I list each type of particle in the Standard Model, and I explain why each type of particle is relevant to life or civilization (in the sense of either being directly necessary itself for life or advanced civilization, or a particle that is a predecessor of some other particle that is relevant to life or civilization). The decay paths shown are typical decay paths, among the most common (a particle will often have multiple ways of decaying). To save space, I have not listed all the particles produced in the decays described, but only the relevant ones.
Notice the important summary at the bottom of the chart. Considering only regular matter (not antimatter), and considering a particle to be relevant to life or civilization if it is either directly relevant or decays into some other particle that is relevant to life or civilization, I find that there are zero unnecessary stable particles, and zero particles irrelevant to life or civilization.
Like most tables summarizing the Standard Model, these visuals do not depict any antiparticles. But what if we were to consider antiparticles? Aren't antiparticles a great example of pure flab in nature's fundamental blueprint?
There are two reasons why antiparticles should not be considered as flab in nature's fundamental blueprint. The first reason is that there seem to be subtle reasons why our universe would not work right or not be stable if antiparticles did not exist. In his book Symmetry and the Beautiful Universe (page 234), Nobel Prize winning physicist Leon M. Lederman suggests complicated reasons why “the whole universe could not be stable” if antiparticles were not part of the overall blueprint.
The second reason is simply that antiparticles don't exist in nature for more than a tiny fraction of a second. This is because whenever an antiparticle comes into contact with a regular particle, both are converted into energy. As there seems to be no evidence that even 0.00000000001 percent of the universe is antimatter, one can't plausibly cite antimatter as an example of flab in nature's fundamental blueprint.
Could we perhaps cite dark matter or dark energy as an example of flab in nature's fundamental blueprint? No, not at all. Neither dark matter nor dark energy is covered by the Standard Model, so we are pretty “in the dark” here (pardon the pun). But scientists do think that dark matter seems to be a vital element in explaining the current structure of the universe, and that galaxies would not even hold together without it. Scientists also say that galaxies would not have expanded at a suitable rate (and galaxies would not have formed) if dark energy did not exist.
So we have looked for flab in nature's fundamental blueprint, and we have come up short. The blueprint seems to be flab-free. We might say that nature's fundamental blueprint is lean and mean. Metaphorically, we might say it is composed essentially of nothing but muscle and bone.
We can easily imagine a universe with lots of flab in its fundamental blueprint, a universe with thousands of different types of stable particles cluttering up space, with only a few of them being the type that combine together to make atoms. Our universe has no resemblance to such a universe.
Friday, February 14, 2014
6 Drawbacks of a 125-Year Lifespan
Scientists are working on
extending the human lifespan. It is entirely possible that within a
few decades the human lifespan might be fifty years longer. Most
people think that such an outcome would be extremely fortunate. But
there are some serious downsides and disadvantages that might arise from a human
lifespan that long. Below is a list of six drawbacks.
Wealth inequality might increase. The United States has a grave problem with excessive wealth being concentrated in the hands of the few. In this year's State of the Union Address, President Obama reported that the wealthiest 1% own 40% of the wealth in he United States, and the bottom 80% own only 7% of America's wealth.
If people live to be 125, the wealth inequality problem would probably increase very significantly. The main reason is that death is a major factor that helps to limit wealth inequality. When very rich people die, the government gets a large share through inheritance taxes, and usually the person's fortune is divided up among several people. If the very rich are living to the age of 125, that end-of-life wealth redistribution is delayed for several decades.
Unemployment might increase. In many fields it is very hard for young people to find a job, partially because of all of the older people holding on to their jobs. If people live to be 125, people might hold on to their jobs until they are 90 or 100. One can only imagine how negative an effect that might have on the unemployment rate.
Ideas might stagnate. It has been said many times that some inappropriate or weakly supported theories never die until their advocates finally grow old and die. This problem of conceptual stagnation might became worse if people have 125-year lifespans. One can imagine people saying things such as this: “I've been advocating string theory at this university for the past 90 years, and I'm sure not going to change my mind now.”
Retirement programs might bankrupt. A program such as Social Security was designed under the assumption that people would typically die around the age of 70 or 75. What happens when people start living to be 125? It might be enough to send many a retirement program into bankruptcy.
Overpopulation might get worse. The world's population was 6 billion in 1999, but grew to 7 billion in 2011. It is predicted to grow to 7.7 billion by 2020. By the time we develop science for 125-year lifespans, the world might be groaning under a terrible overpopulation crisis (exacerbated by global warming and resource depletion). Much longer lifespans may make the problem significantly worse. The extent of this difficulty will depend on how expensive lifespan extension is. If scientists develop a fairly inexpensive youth pill, and billions start living beyond the age of 100, this might make overpopulation much worse. But if life extension depends on very expensive techniques that only the rich can afford (as depicted in the visual below), the effect on overpopulation might be fairly small.
Dementia might proliferate. Longer lifespans might be produced by the introduction of some general technique or medicine that slows aging in all parts of the body. But it is just as likely that longer lifespans will be produced through techniques that allow people to replace or rejuvenate particular parts of the body. In the latter case, there will be a very great risk that people will get younger hearts, younger livers, younger lungs, and younger arteries before they get younger brains.
The reason for this risk is that the brain is much more complicated than any other organ in the body. Compared to the brain, the heart and the lungs and the liver are ridiculously simple (and might well be produced by sophisticated 3D printers). So probably decades before there is anything like a technique for rejuvenating the brain (or stopping the aging in the brain), there will be techniques for replacing the heart or the lungs or the liver.
Why is this a problem? It's because people will be tempted to make organ replacements that give them much longer lifespans, but leave them with the same old brains, brains that will tend to become demented when people reach an age of 85, 90, or 95 (because of Alzheimer's disease, strokes, and normal brain aging).
One can only imagine what a cruel twist of fate this might end up being. An 80-year-old might have an operation giving him a new heart, followed by an operation giving him new lungs. He might then rejoice after being told he can look forward to forty more years of life. But then five or ten years later, he might become demented and senile. His extra decades might be spent in a state of vacant senility in a nursing home, at tremendous cost to society.
So you may be saying: no problem; before getting a new heart or lungs, I'll just ask my doctor whether he's sure this won't end up being an expensive ticket to a decade or two in a nursing home. But it's as likely as not that if you ask your doctor, “Are you sure I won't get senile when I'm 100 or 110?” he will simply say: “I don't know.”
So people now about 50 or 60 may be faced with a very tough choice in a few decades. You may be told that some fancy high-tech operation may give you 30 years of additional life, with the risk that you may be spending half of that time as a senile, demented person in a nursing home. Which choice will you make?
Let us hope that they come up with huge breakthroughs in preventing dementia and strokes, medical science that you will be able to afford, so that you will never face such a choice.
Wealth inequality might increase. The United States has a grave problem with excessive wealth being concentrated in the hands of the few. In this year's State of the Union Address, President Obama reported that the wealthiest 1% own 40% of the wealth in he United States, and the bottom 80% own only 7% of America's wealth.
If people live to be 125, the wealth inequality problem would probably increase very significantly. The main reason is that death is a major factor that helps to limit wealth inequality. When very rich people die, the government gets a large share through inheritance taxes, and usually the person's fortune is divided up among several people. If the very rich are living to the age of 125, that end-of-life wealth redistribution is delayed for several decades.
Unemployment might increase. In many fields it is very hard for young people to find a job, partially because of all of the older people holding on to their jobs. If people live to be 125, people might hold on to their jobs until they are 90 or 100. One can only imagine how negative an effect that might have on the unemployment rate.
Ideas might stagnate. It has been said many times that some inappropriate or weakly supported theories never die until their advocates finally grow old and die. This problem of conceptual stagnation might became worse if people have 125-year lifespans. One can imagine people saying things such as this: “I've been advocating string theory at this university for the past 90 years, and I'm sure not going to change my mind now.”
Retirement programs might bankrupt. A program such as Social Security was designed under the assumption that people would typically die around the age of 70 or 75. What happens when people start living to be 125? It might be enough to send many a retirement program into bankruptcy.
Overpopulation might get worse. The world's population was 6 billion in 1999, but grew to 7 billion in 2011. It is predicted to grow to 7.7 billion by 2020. By the time we develop science for 125-year lifespans, the world might be groaning under a terrible overpopulation crisis (exacerbated by global warming and resource depletion). Much longer lifespans may make the problem significantly worse. The extent of this difficulty will depend on how expensive lifespan extension is. If scientists develop a fairly inexpensive youth pill, and billions start living beyond the age of 100, this might make overpopulation much worse. But if life extension depends on very expensive techniques that only the rich can afford (as depicted in the visual below), the effect on overpopulation might be fairly small.
An ad of the future
Dementia might proliferate. Longer lifespans might be produced by the introduction of some general technique or medicine that slows aging in all parts of the body. But it is just as likely that longer lifespans will be produced through techniques that allow people to replace or rejuvenate particular parts of the body. In the latter case, there will be a very great risk that people will get younger hearts, younger livers, younger lungs, and younger arteries before they get younger brains.
The reason for this risk is that the brain is much more complicated than any other organ in the body. Compared to the brain, the heart and the lungs and the liver are ridiculously simple (and might well be produced by sophisticated 3D printers). So probably decades before there is anything like a technique for rejuvenating the brain (or stopping the aging in the brain), there will be techniques for replacing the heart or the lungs or the liver.
Why is this a problem? It's because people will be tempted to make organ replacements that give them much longer lifespans, but leave them with the same old brains, brains that will tend to become demented when people reach an age of 85, 90, or 95 (because of Alzheimer's disease, strokes, and normal brain aging).
One can only imagine what a cruel twist of fate this might end up being. An 80-year-old might have an operation giving him a new heart, followed by an operation giving him new lungs. He might then rejoice after being told he can look forward to forty more years of life. But then five or ten years later, he might become demented and senile. His extra decades might be spent in a state of vacant senility in a nursing home, at tremendous cost to society.
So you may be saying: no problem; before getting a new heart or lungs, I'll just ask my doctor whether he's sure this won't end up being an expensive ticket to a decade or two in a nursing home. But it's as likely as not that if you ask your doctor, “Are you sure I won't get senile when I'm 100 or 110?” he will simply say: “I don't know.”
So people now about 50 or 60 may be faced with a very tough choice in a few decades. You may be told that some fancy high-tech operation may give you 30 years of additional life, with the risk that you may be spending half of that time as a senile, demented person in a nursing home. Which choice will you make?
Let us hope that they come up with huge breakthroughs in preventing dementia and strokes, medical science that you will be able to afford, so that you will never face such a choice.
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
The Gifts From Another World: A Science Fiction Story
At first they thought an
asteroid was going to hit the planet Earth. A worldwide panic ensued.
But a few days later, the astronomers changed their story. The object
hurtling towards our planet was not an asteroid, but a gigantic alien
spaceship. Mankind was about to receive its first extraterrestrial
visitors.
The spaceship went into orbit around Earth, and began to make radio contact with scientists. After a rather long period during which the extraterrestrials studied our language, the aliens finally broadcast their intentions to the scientists.
The scientists briefed the President of the United States at the White House.
“So is it good news or bad news?” asked President Jill Trenton.
“It's good news,” said Barry Tyler, the leader of the scientists. “They like us. They're benevolent. They want to send down a small landing craft from their large spaceship. The small craft will be carrying some of their emissaries.”
“Very good,” said President Trenton. “Did you arrange a landing site?”
“Sure did,” said Tyler. “They're going to land the craft on a grassy spot near the Vietnam Veterans Memorial.”
“They're going to present you with gifts,” said Tyler. “Rituals seem to be very important with these extraterrestrials. It's very important that you graciously accept the gifts that they give you, in a way compatible with their ancient rituals and protocols.”
“That sounds pretty easy,” said President Trenton. “This should make a great photo-op. What do they look like?”
“They're absolutely hideous,” said Tyler. “Their heads are like mutant jellyfish. They have five big slimy tentacles coming out of their heads.”
“Yuk!” said President Trenton. “Let's hope I won't have to touch the disgusting things. I get grossed out very easily. I'm the kind of person who loses her appetite if I merely see a fish head.”
On the day of the landing, high officials from Washington came to the Vietnam Veterans Memorial, along with an army of reporters and scientists. They watched as the landing craft slowly descended from the sky, and landed in the large grassy area.
President Trenton was flanked by Barry Tyler, who was there to give last minute pointers on the all-important meeting of two different races from two different planets.
“After our meeting at the White House, I found out something important,” said Tyler. “Before you accept the gifts that the aliens offer, one of the aliens will approach you, and try to kind of embrace you. It's some kind of hug that is very important in their rituals. By letting the alien hug you, you will show that you regard their race as highly as they regard our race.”
“Good heavens,” said President Trenton. “I have to be hugged by the hideous type of creature you described? Well, I'll try my best.”
“It's a little more than a hug,” said Tyler. “To conform to their rituals, you will have to let the alien wrap his tentacles around your head. Apparently this is because their tentacles have some way of sensing whether your intentions are friendly.”
“Good God, what have you got me into?” asked President Trenton.
Two aliens emerged from the landing craft. One was holding the gifts to be given to the President. The other alien approached the President slowly, wagging its slimy tentacles.
President Trenton was shocked by the hideous appearance of the revolting alien. It was the ugliest and most repulsive thing she had ever seen. At first she thought to herself: I've got to do this. But then she visualized the five slimy tentacles wrapping around her head. The image made her want to vomit.
“No!” cried President Trenton. “No, no, I can't go through with it!” She departed the landing area, going back to the White House.
The aliens soon became aware that an unforgivable breach in ritual protocol had occurred. Feeling rebuffed, they returned to their landing craft, which lifted off, and returned to the much larger mother craft orbiting the planet. A few days later, the huge spaceship hurtled off into the voids of space, never to return.
At the White House there was a post-mortem to discuss the diplomatic fiasco that had occurred.
“Okay, so I blew it,” confessed President Trenton. “I just freaked out, thinking of that icky creature wrapping those disgusting slimy tentacles around my head.”
“Before the aliens left, they told us about what the gifts were, the gifts we're never going to get,” said Tyler.
“What were they – some crummy souvenirs from their measly little home world?” asked President Trenton cynically.
“No,” said Tyler. “Before we rebuffed them, they were going to give us a machine for making stones into gold, a cure for cancer, a cure for AIDS, a device for stopping global warming, and a recipe for a potion that can provide a little thing called...eternal life.”
The spaceship went into orbit around Earth, and began to make radio contact with scientists. After a rather long period during which the extraterrestrials studied our language, the aliens finally broadcast their intentions to the scientists.
The scientists briefed the President of the United States at the White House.
“So is it good news or bad news?” asked President Jill Trenton.
“It's good news,” said Barry Tyler, the leader of the scientists. “They like us. They're benevolent. They want to send down a small landing craft from their large spaceship. The small craft will be carrying some of their emissaries.”
“Very good,” said President Trenton. “Did you arrange a landing site?”
“Sure did,” said Tyler. “They're going to land the craft on a grassy spot near the Vietnam Veterans Memorial.”
“They're going to present you with gifts,” said Tyler. “Rituals seem to be very important with these extraterrestrials. It's very important that you graciously accept the gifts that they give you, in a way compatible with their ancient rituals and protocols.”
“That sounds pretty easy,” said President Trenton. “This should make a great photo-op. What do they look like?”
“They're absolutely hideous,” said Tyler. “Their heads are like mutant jellyfish. They have five big slimy tentacles coming out of their heads.”
“Yuk!” said President Trenton. “Let's hope I won't have to touch the disgusting things. I get grossed out very easily. I'm the kind of person who loses her appetite if I merely see a fish head.”
On the day of the landing, high officials from Washington came to the Vietnam Veterans Memorial, along with an army of reporters and scientists. They watched as the landing craft slowly descended from the sky, and landed in the large grassy area.
President Trenton was flanked by Barry Tyler, who was there to give last minute pointers on the all-important meeting of two different races from two different planets.
“After our meeting at the White House, I found out something important,” said Tyler. “Before you accept the gifts that the aliens offer, one of the aliens will approach you, and try to kind of embrace you. It's some kind of hug that is very important in their rituals. By letting the alien hug you, you will show that you regard their race as highly as they regard our race.”
“Good heavens,” said President Trenton. “I have to be hugged by the hideous type of creature you described? Well, I'll try my best.”
“It's a little more than a hug,” said Tyler. “To conform to their rituals, you will have to let the alien wrap his tentacles around your head. Apparently this is because their tentacles have some way of sensing whether your intentions are friendly.”
“Good God, what have you got me into?” asked President Trenton.
Two aliens emerged from the landing craft. One was holding the gifts to be given to the President. The other alien approached the President slowly, wagging its slimy tentacles.
President Trenton was shocked by the hideous appearance of the revolting alien. It was the ugliest and most repulsive thing she had ever seen. At first she thought to herself: I've got to do this. But then she visualized the five slimy tentacles wrapping around her head. The image made her want to vomit.
“No!” cried President Trenton. “No, no, I can't go through with it!” She departed the landing area, going back to the White House.
The aliens soon became aware that an unforgivable breach in ritual protocol had occurred. Feeling rebuffed, they returned to their landing craft, which lifted off, and returned to the much larger mother craft orbiting the planet. A few days later, the huge spaceship hurtled off into the voids of space, never to return.
At the White House there was a post-mortem to discuss the diplomatic fiasco that had occurred.
“Okay, so I blew it,” confessed President Trenton. “I just freaked out, thinking of that icky creature wrapping those disgusting slimy tentacles around my head.”
“Before the aliens left, they told us about what the gifts were, the gifts we're never going to get,” said Tyler.
“What were they – some crummy souvenirs from their measly little home world?” asked President Trenton cynically.
“No,” said Tyler. “Before we rebuffed them, they were going to give us a machine for making stones into gold, a cure for cancer, a cure for AIDS, a device for stopping global warming, and a recipe for a potion that can provide a little thing called...eternal life.”
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