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Our future, our universe, and other weighty topics


Friday, February 12, 2021

It's Kind of Like the Official Science News (But Always With Accuracy Disclaimers)

The EurekAlert site at www.eurekalert.org is yet another "science news" site that seems to just pass on press releases coming from university press offices.  Nowadays university press offices are not a very reliable source of information, as they tend to display all kinds of "local bias" in which the work of researchers at the university gets some adulatory treatment it does not deserve. University press offices often make grandiose claims about research done by professors at their university, fawning or hype-filled claims that are often unwarranted.  The press releases from university press offices often make unimportant or dubious research sound as if it was some type of important breakthrough. 

The EurekAlert site says that it is "a service of the American Association for the Advancement of Science." That makes it sound like we would be getting some kind of "official science news" or at least news of better-than-average reliability. But very strangely at the bottom of each news story on the site, we read this notice: "Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system."  How very strange. So if you look at the top of the page, you'll think the news releases are some kind of "official science news," as we see the AAAS acronym displayed prominently. But the bottom of each page makes it sound rather like the site is just a kind of a bulletin board where people can throw anything. 

Looking at some of the stories, I can see why such a disclaimer appears at the bottom of each of the EurekAlert press releases. Some of the press releases make you say, "Come on guys, you call that Science News?"

A recent silly "science news" story at the EurekAlert site was entitled, "Does the human brain resemble the universe?" The story attempts to convince us that the brain resembles the universe because of strained reasons such as 70% of the brain is water and 70% of the universe is supposedly dark energy. That isn't very convincing, because we don't know that dark energy even exists. Moreover, a brain consists of fantastically organized cells, but neither stars nor galaxies are very organized. 

Another very dubious story at the EurekAlert site had the headline, "Tel Aviv University study finds hyperbaric oxygen treatments reverse aging process."  The "treatment" in question consisted of the pretty preposterous procedure of having patients breath through masks for 90 minutes on each of 60 different days in a special "hyperbaric chamber."   No evidence is provided that any of the subjects in the study actually looked or felt any younger after such an absurdly inconvenient treatment. 

What the study did was to analyze a bunch of cell types, looking for anything that might be reported as an improvement. A few minor things have been found, such as an increased telomere length in some types of cells.  But since pretty small study group sizes were used (20 for one measure, and 25 for another), we have no robust evidence that some effect has been found that is not something due to pure chance. Since the study was not a preregistered study testing a hypothesis previously declared, and since no mention is made of blinding techniques, we should not have very much confidence in such results.  There is no basis for thinking that some mere increase in telomere length would actually reverse the aging process.  The aging process is typically believed to involve hundreds of different factors, and it is very doubtful that you can slow down aging merely by increasing telomere length in some cells. The study admits "the lack of a control group." A control group is usually considered an essential for any serious experimental medical study.  The study also admits "the duration of the effect has yet to be determined in long-term follow-up." One of the three persons responsible for data analysis in the experiment is a shareholder of a company that stands to profit if a successful result was reported, and three of the authors are employees of such a company.

No robust evidence has actually been provided that the health of any of the subjects has been improved, and for all we know the health of the subjects may have worsened, because of some side-effect that was not looked for. The treatment described is some ridiculously impractical thing, and so inconvenient that I doubt even millionaires would put up with it. So what is our EurekAlert site doing, giving people false hope that some cure has been found for aging? 

I will not discuss in this post the groundless press release found here on the EurekAlert site, because I already explained here why its triumphal annoucement is baseless.  The EurekAlert story here is entitled "Melatonin: finally, a supplement that actually boosts memory." The story provides no robust evidence for such a claim, merely referring us to a study involving mice. That study is ridiculously low-powered, involving study group sizes of only 4 mice or 6 mice.  It is very easy to get false alarm effects using such too-small study group sizes.  15 animals per study group is the minimum for a moderately persuasive experimental result. I have taken melatonin on and off at various times in my life, and never noticed any improvement in memory from taking it. 

The EurekAlert story here gives us the erroneous headline "Astronomers detect extended dark matter halo around ancient dwarf galaxy." The astronomers didn't actually detect any dark matter. They merely "detected stars at the edge of Tucana II, in a configuration that is surprisingly far from its center." From this observation they are speculating that the galaxy has a halo of dark matter, but that's just a speculation, one of dozens of possible explanations for stars located in such a position. All that really has been found is some stars consisting of ordinary matter.  Dark matter has never been observed, and never been detected. 

Then there is the very misleading EurekAlert story here which is entitled "Genes for face shape identified." Making claims not actually made in the scientific paper, the story says, "Genes that determine the shape of a person's facial profile have been discovered." The claim that genes or DNA specify anatomy is a claim with no basis in fact. DNA and the genes inside it are not a blueprint, a recipe or an algorithm for constructing the human body or any of its  parts visible to the eye, and bear no resemblance to any such thing. DNA and genes do not specify how to make any organ or appendage of the human, and do even specify how to make any of the 200 cell types in the human body. DNA and the genes inside it merely specify low-level chemical information such as the amino acid sequences that make up the polypeptide chains that are the starting point of protein molecules.  The claim that genes or DNA specify high-level anatomy is a groundless  claim that many biologists or science writers have been pushing for 70 years, ever since the discovery of DNA. Many other biologists (such as more than 20 that I quote at the end of this post) have pointed out that genes and DNA are no such thing as a blueprint or recipe or program for making a human body.  The research discussed by the "Genes for face shape identified" merely has identified a slight statistical association between certain genes and certain differences in facial characteristics, which is an entirely different thing from discovering "genes that determine the shape of a person's facial profile." 

An article on today's EurekAlert is entitled "Researchers have broken the code for cell communication," which makes it sound as if there is one code for cell communication that has been discovered. The two hundred types of cells in the human body actually communicate in thousands of different ways, with a diversity of communication as impressive as all the communication of the internet. The study discussed (involving mere yeast) has shed light on only one of the countless types of ways cells can communicate. Once again, some forgettable little study has been trumpeted to make it sound like some epic breakthrough.  It will take scientists many decades or centuries to unravel all the ways in which cells communicate. 

scientific research hype
This goes on constantly on science news sites

Monday, February 8, 2021

They Too Were "Ghost-Told" of a Death

In the posts below I have described about 200 cases of people who reported seeing an apparition of someone who had died, but whose death was unknown to the person seeing the apparition:

25 Who Were "Ghost-Told" of a Death

25 More Who Were "Ghost-Told" of a Death





Below are some additional cases of this type. 

In the book More Glimpses of the World Unseen by Frederick George Lee, we have this account on pages 142-143:

"Just as I turned towards the summer-house, I saw my wife's brother standing within the door of it. He looked hard at me, but did not speak. I looked hard at him, wondering why he had not gone straight to the house, and then went up and shook him by the hand. I grasped at what seemed to be his hand, but found myself holding nothing ; and in a few seconds, not more than twenty, he appeared to have altogether vanished... Two days afterwards, I found that he had died suddenly of heart-disease while on a tour in France, about the time that I had seen his spirit ; and I learnt this by a letter from his widow, which reached me by the second post of the Monday following the Saturday upon which he had died."

On page 482 of Volume 18 of the Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, we have an account by Alice Davidson Baxter that she saw an apparition of her soldier brother:  

"There , in full view, stood my brother, Lieutenant Joseph M . Davidson. He gazed at me for a second or two , and disappeared. I saw the upper portion of his body perfectly , and he looked at me sorrowfully and earnestly ....On the night of November 26th, say three weeks later, my father was advised by the War Department that our boy had been killed in action on the 6th of November. I said “ No , it was on the 4th ,' and when asked my reasons for doubting the accuracy of the Department telegram, I related the incident of the night of the 4th." 

Alice's father corroborates this account, and says, "Later telegrams , confirming the death of our son, gave the date, November 4th."

In his long fascinating book Ghosts: True Encounters with the World Beyond by Hans Holzer, we read the following account of someone learning of a death from an apparition:

“On November 15, 1971, at about 6:30 A.M., I was beginning to awaken when I clearly saw the face of my cousin beside and near the foot of my bed. He said, ‘Don, I have died.’ Then his face disappeared, but the voice was definitely his own distinctive voice. As far as I knew at that time, he was alive and well. The thought of telling my wife made me feel uncomfortable, so I did not tell her of the incident. At 1 1:00 A.M. , about four- and- a-half hours after 
my psychic experience, the mail arrived. In it was a letter from my cousin’s widow, informing us that he had a heart failure and was pronounced dead upon arrival at the hospital. She stated that his death occurred at 9:30 P.M., November 8, 1971, at Ventura, California."

In the fascinating book Noted Witnesses for Psychic Occurrences by Walter Franklin Prince, we have on page 204 an account by the Duchess d'Abrantes, the wife of General Junot, one of Napoleon's generals. She says she saw at length an apparition of her husband, who had "departed for Illyria." She says "one of his legs was broken." She says "the apparition slowly faded, and became like an almost invisible mist." General Junot had at about the same time (after reverses of fortune) jumped out a window, an apparent suicide attempt that resulted in a broken leg and his death several days later. 

On pages 262-263 of the same book, we are told about an apparition sighting by Celestine Galli-Marie, who first sang the role of Carmen, known to almost every opera lover.   While on stage, she stopped singing, and felt a terrible pain. In the dressing room later, she said, "Some misfortune has happened to our Bizet," and "As the blow seemed to strike me, I saw his face in front of me,  for just a second." She soon learned that the person she referred to (Georges Bizet, the composer of the opera Carmen) had perished at about the same time, by a very surprising death by heart attack at the age of only 36. 

Celestine Galli-Marie as Carmen (from Wikimedia Commons)

In the book Posthumous Humanity: A Study of Phantoms we read this account:

"M. Bonnetty, responsible editor of the Annates de Philosophie Religieuse, tells us that one evening, before sleeping, he saw the image of one of his friends, then in America, open his bed 
curtains and inform him that he had that instant died. The sad news is subsequently confirmed, and indicates that very moment as having been the last. But this image wore a waistcoat whose very extraordinary pattern had much struck M. Bonnetty ; he made subsequent inquiries, and begged that they would send him a drawing of this waistcoat pattern. They did so, and it was identically that of the apparition." 

On page 128 of the March 1860 edition of The Spiritual Magazine, we read of a Miss S. H. who on a Friday evening stated the following: "I have seen my poor dear Rosa; I little thought she would go away first when she came to see me before I left home; now she has gone from us all, and two bright angels are taking her to that beautiful place that I can’t get into." It was later found that the same Rosa had died that Friday afternoon. 

In the Psi Encyclopedia, we read this account about a Soviet researcher who apparently received very many reports of partial apparitions coinciding with a time of death at a distant location:

"In an interview in Komsomolskaya Pravda a year before his death, Vasiliev revealed that he had received ‘hundreds or more’ accounts such as one in which a woman described a vivid hallucination of her son’s face later found to coincide with the moment of his death. ‘How’, he asked, ‘can we explain the fact that such weak currents as those of a man’s brain can give rise to directed electromagnetic capable of being transmitted tens, hundreds, even thousands of kilometers?’ "

In the book New Evidences of Psychical Research we read of a Mrs. Napier who was surprised to see an apparition of someone named Anthony Grace, who she had known long ago. She later found out that this person died in August 1906, the same month the apparition was seen. 

On page 213 of Volume X of the Proceedings of the Society for Psychical Research we read the following account:

"We went to a cottage in Gloucestershire, where my sister and I shared the same room...As my sister and I were working and talking together, I looked up, and saw our young acquaintance standing in front of me and looking at us. I turned to my sister, she saw nothing ; I looked again to where he stood, he had vanished. We agreed not to tell anyone — and, although I wished to put it down in my diary (which I bad not kept for some time), I was afraid to do so ; I therefore made marks to remind myself. Some time afterwards we heard that our young acquaintance had either committed suicide or had been killed ; he was found dead in the woods twenty-foar hours after landing. On looking back to my diary, 1 found that my marks corresponded to the time of his death."

On page 50 of Volume II of Phantasms of the Living by Gurney, Myers and Podmore, we read the following account:

"On February 26, 1850, I was awake, for I was to go to my sister-in-law, at Kingstown, and visiting was then an event to me. About 2 o'clock in the morning my brother walked into our room (my sister's) and stood beside my bed...He looked down most lovingly and kindly, and waved his hand and he was gone. I recollect it all as if it were only last night it all occurred, and my feeling of astonishment, not at his coming into the room at all, but at where he could have gone. At that hour he died."

Postscript: A person stated that he heard an account of an apparition sighting from a Justice of the Supreme Court of the State of New York. He tells the account as follows:

"That on one occasion he was coming down the Hudson River from Albany in a night boat, being the sole occupant of a stateroom. That  some time in the night, he awoke and saw the form of the lady robed in white with whom he had boarded when reading law. That she was standing near his berth, and said to him : 'I have just died, and thought I would come and tell you.'  She then disappeared; whereupon he arose, procured a light, and made a note of the occurrence and of the exact time. That soon after reaching home that day a telegram was received, announcing the death of the lady, and that subsequently he ascertained that it had occurred at the exact time that she had appeared to him on the boat."

Thursday, February 4, 2021

Loeb Fails to Persuade Us That ‘Oumuamua Was an ET Craft

Years ago a strange object named ‘Oumuamua was distantly observed. It rather seemed to have entered the solar system from outside the solar system.  Being only between 100 and 1000 meters long and passing many millions of miles away, 85 times farther away than the moon, the object was never photographed as anything more than a speck. We can see some astronomical photos of ‘Oumuamua at the link here, where ‘Oumuamua appears as a mere featureless dot, using up only a few pixels in the images. 

Many articles on ‘Oumuamua have been published showing a cigar-shaped rocky object, but such a visual is merely a speculative artist's visualization, not a photograph.  We do not have any reliable data on the shape of ‘Oumuamua. Its shape is sometimes described as cigar-shaped, and sometimes called pancake-shaped. That merely proves that no one knows what its shape was.  In a Scientific American article, Harvard astronomer Abraham Loeb stated that  ‘Oumuamua "has an extreme elongated shape with its length at least five to 10 times larger than its projected width." But that is a confession that the object may be merely pickle-shaped, not cigar-shaped.  

Loeb is out with a new book trying to sell us on the idea that the poorly observed space object named ‘Oumuamua was some kind of extraterrestrial spacecraft.  In two previous posts (here and here) I explained some reasons for rejecting this claim. One reason is that the object was reported as having a tumbling motion. It seems  unlikely that anyone would ever design a spacecraft that had a tumbling motion. Humans have never sent a spacecraft with a tumbling motion to the moon or to another planet.  Instead of a tumbling motion, a sensibly designed spacecraft will move constantly in one direction, in the direction opposite of where its rocket is pointing.  Giving a spacecraft a tumbling motion would be a perfect recipe for making its path of motion unpredictable and erratic. 

Another reason for rejecting the claim that ‘Oumuamua was some kind of extraterrestrial spacecraft is that the object showed no sign of moving towards our planet.  Presumably a probe from another solar system would have moved closer to any Earth-like planet, to observe it better, if such a planet was discovered in some solar system that the probe visited. 

Loeb has a recent interview in Scientific American on his new book. In that interview, he fails to present any compelling reason for regarding ‘Oumuamua as a spacecraft from another planet.  He spends quite a bit of time complaining about the doctrinal shortcomings of today's scientists, suggesting that many of them spend lots of time confidently pushing dubious speculations with little basis in fact.  That's true, but it doesn't make us any more likely to believe Loeb's theory of an artificial origin of ‘Oumuamua.

He states the following, which makes it sound like he's crossing his fingers about some evidence that may arrive:

"If ‘Oumuamua is a member of a population of objects moving on random trajectories, then based on its discovery with the Pan-STARRS telescope, you can estimate that we should very soon begin finding, on average, one of these objects per month after the Vera C. Rubin Observatory comes online. We can also establish a system of instruments—satellites, maybe—that would not only monitor the sky but also be able to react to the approach of such objects so we can get photographs of them as they come in rather than chasing them as they go out, because they move very fast."

That isn't a current reason for thinking ‘Oumuamua is an extraterrestrial spacecraft, but merely a possible weak reason that might materialize in the future: the possibility that there might not be other objects like ‘Oumuamua observed in the near future. And if there was a discrepancy between theoretical predictions of how many objects like ‘Oumuamua should be observed, and how many such objects have been observed, that would not show ‘Oumuamua was probably artificial, but merely suggest some problem with the theoretical predictions. 

Very strangely, Loeb makes this statement:

"People ask why I get this media attention. The only reason is because my colleagues are not using common sense."

No, I think the reason Loeb is getting media attention is because he is making the very sensational claim that an object very faintly observed in telescopes was some kind of artificial extraterrestrial spacecraft, and because his publisher has arranged for lots of press coverage and publicity and interviews to help sell Loeb's book.  (Loeb brags he's "got about 100 podcast interviews to do in the next few weeks.") 

viral space story

Loeb then repeats a line of reasoning that his astronomer colleagues have made countless times, even though it is fallacious:

"So if you roll the dice on life billions of times in the Milky Way, what is the chance that we are alone? Minuscule, most likely!"

It is erroneous to reason that something is likely to happen merely because there are billions of chances for it to occur. If the chance of the thing occurring is some low probability such as less than 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000, then it will be very unlikely to happen even if there are billions of chances for it occur. If everyone in the world were to spend an hour throwing a deck of cards into the air, we should not expect that even one of these billions of throws would result in a house of cards forming from a throw. There are strong reasons for thinking that the accidental origin of life would be as unlikely as a house of cards forming when someone threw a deck of cards into the air. 

Loeb then goes on and on about a variety of topics such as the search for signatures of technological civilizations on other planets, and other forms of SETI.  But at no point in his long interview does he give us any solid reason for thinking that ‘Oumuamua was some kind of extraterrestrial spacecraft. So why should we suspect that his book discusses any such evidence?

We can imagine how a layman would be treated if he presented observational evidence comparable to the observations of ‘Oumuamua. The layman might show some little speck in a photo of an earthly sky, and he might say, "This looks strange."  People would just laugh it off, and say something like, "Come back to me when you have a decent photo of something strange, not just a few blurry pixels." 

Nature can produce unusual shapes such as arch shapes and pillar shapes and cigar shapes. You are not on solid ground if you try to argue that something was designed because you think its shape was very unusual. You are on much better ground if you argue that something was designed because it has very many parts arranged in such an organized and functional way that no natural process would have produced so functional and organized an arrangement of parts. But no such argument is being used about ‘Oumuamua, for we don't even know whether it has more than one part. 


Postscript:
A news story says, "Scientists determine the origin of extra-solar object 'Oumuamua." That's another case of claiming scientists have determined the orgin of something that still has an unknown origin. But the scientists have a reasonable-sounding speculation that 
'Oumuamua is a chunk of frozen nitrogen. We see an artist's visualization that shows a shape very different from the cigar-shape so often seen in stories about 'Oumuamua. 

Saturday, January 30, 2021

A Car-of-the-Future Is a Better Analogy Than Behe's Mousetrap

Scientist Michael Behe has argued in a series of books that living organisms are too complex and organized to be the mere products of Darwinian evolution.  He argues that there must have been some intelligent agency driving the appearance of living things.  Much of Behe's reasoning is based on biochemistry, the complexities of which are over the heads of most people. 

But Behe has a nice simple analogy that he has used for many years  to advance his main argument.  He often evokes an analogy in which complex biological innovations are compared to a mousetrap.  Behe cites a mousetrap as an example of what he calls irreducible complexity.  He defines irreducible complexity as some functional innovation that requires all of its parts to exist and to be arranged in the right way.  According to Behe, a mousetrap is an example of irreducible complexity, because every one of its parts is needed for the mousetrap to work.  Behe reasons that there are very many components in organisms that are like mousetraps, in the sense that they require all of their parts to be functional. 

This analogy of a mousetrap is one that has received widespread attention, as has the phrase "irreducible complexity." But the mousetrap analogy is not a very good one, and the phrase "irreducible complexity" is a clumsy and ineffective way of describing the stupendous order, complexity and organization of living things. 

Let us look at some impressive characteristics of large living organisms:

(1) They are information rich.  Contrary to a widely circulated myth widely spread to serve the ideological purposes of Darwinists, it is absolutely untrue that living organisms carry around in their cells or DNA any blueprint or program or recipe for making such organisms. The DNA in cells merely contains low-level chemical information such as the amino sequences to make the polypeptide chains that are the starting points of protein molecules.  But while DNA does not contain any specification of anatomy, it is at least information-rich. The essence of information is the use of representational tokens, in which some individual tokens (low-level semantic units) stand for or represent some larger physical or conceptual thing.  DNA does qualify as information, because it is a series of nucleotide base pairs, and particular combinations of these base pairs stand for particular amino acids used to construct proteins.  A human DNA molecule has 3 billion nucleotide base pairs, and these 3 billion units qualify as both information and representational information. So because a human is carrying a huge amount of information in each of his cells, we can call a human information-rich. Other simpler organisms also carry very high levels of information in their DNA, so every organism is information-rich. 

(2)  They are enormously organized.  The degree of organization in large living organisms is greater than the organization of anything humans have constructed. A single cell is so organized that is has been compared in complexity to a factory or a city. 

(3) They have a hierarchical organization.  The organization of large organisms is extremely hierarchical.  Subatomic particles are organized into atoms, which are organized into amino acids, which are organized into protein molecules, which are organized into protein complexes, which are organized into organelles, which are organized into cells, which are organized into tissues, which are organized into organs, which are organized into organ systems, which are organized into organisms. 

(4) They are gigantically dynamic. Humans have known for centuries about two ways in which organisms are dynamic: first, the fact that organisms can move, and second that organisms grow from a small size to a large size.  In recent decades, scientists have come to understand a third way in which organisms are dynamic: the fact that internally organisms are enormously dynamic, both because of constant motion inside in the body, and also because of a constant activity inside the body involving cellular changes. Just one example of this enormously dynamic activity is that fact that protein molecules in the brain are replaced at a rate of about 3% per day. A large organism is like some building that is constantly being rebuilt, with some fraction of it being torn down every day, and some other fraction of it being replaced every day.  The analogy comparing a cell to a factory gives us some idea of the gigantically dynamic nature of organisms. 

(5) They reproduce. Scientists understand how human females can become pregnant, but they do not at all understand how large organisms are able to reproduce. Scientists cannot even credibly explain how a single cell is able to reproduce. Scientists lack any credible explanation of how a speck-sized egg is able to progress to become the enormous organization of a large organism with so many different types of cells and organs. There is no truth to the claim that organisms reproduce because some blueprint or recipe for making the organism is read from the organism's genome or DNA.  No such blueprint or recipe exists in DNA, which merely contains low-level chemical information such as the amino acids sequences of a protein molecule.  Once you study all the very many types of incredibly dynamic and fine-tuned chemical and cellular choreography going on in the body, continuous intricate processes necessary for life, you may start to realize how childish is the very idea that an organism with such enormously dynamic internal activity could ever be specified by a blueprint (a plan for constructing static immobile things). We take for granted the miracle of reproduction because it almost always happens under a certain set of conditions. Similarly, if you could always conjure up a delicious 10-course meal by saying "Abracadabra," you might take such a thing for granted, and think it nothing very special.  Without resorting to misstatements such as false and childish claims that organisms reproduce by a reading of a DNA blueprint for making the organism, evolutionary biologists are unable to explain the reproduction of large organisms. 

There is an acronym we can use to remind us of some of these characteristics. The acronym is HIRDREOC, which stands for Hierarchical Information-Rich Dynamic Reproducing Enormously Organized Complexity.  Almost all large visible biological organisms are examples of HIRDREOC. To describe humans, we might use the acronym CHIRDREOC, which stands for Comprehending Hierarchical Information-Rich Dynamic Reproducing Enormously Organized Complexity.

Now, let us look at Michael Behe's analogy of the mousetrap. Does such an analogy describe most of the impressive HIRDREOC characteristics I have listed? No, the analogy fails to do that. Mousetraps do not contain any information, and no part of a mousetrap stands for or represents something else.  Mousetraps are slightly organized, but they are not at all enormously organized.  Mousetraps do not have any hierarchical organization. Mousetraps do not reproduce. Mousetraps are only very slightly dynamic. The only movement that occurs in a mousetrap is when the trap slams shut. Even when organisms are resting, there is an enormous amount of dynamic activity inside of the organisms. There is no such incessant activity for a mousetrap, which only moves once. 

So the mousetrap analogy does a bad job of suggesting the enormously impressive aspects of living organisms. Inside organisms are parts and systems a million times more impressive than the minimal functional organization of a mousetrap. But you might argue: at least the mousetrap explains the idea of irreducible complexity pretty well. But such a phrase of "irreducible complexity" is not a very good one to be using if you are trying to show the shortcomings of Darwinian explanations. 

There are two problems with the phrase "irreducible complexity." The first is that merely appealing to "complexity"  is not very convincing.  One definition of "complexity" is "having many parts." But there are many natural things that accidentally appeared, and have many parts. A pile of rocks that arose from a landslide can be said to have complexity, in the sense of having many parts. But we know that such a thing can easily arise accidentally.  The mere word  "complexity" does a poor job of describing things that are functionally organized to achieve a particular result.   If you want to argue that organisms have characteristics that they could not have obtained through accidental processes, it is better to use more specific terms such as these:

  • functional complexity
  • organization 
  • highly organized complexity
  • fine-tuned complexity
  • IRDREOC (Information-Rich Dynamic Reproducing Enormously Organized Complexity)
  • HIRDREOC (Hierarchical Information-Rich Dynamic Reproducing Enormously Organized Complexity)

The second problem with the phrase "irreducible complexity" is that it is a mistake to put too much emphasis on a situation in which every part is needed for something to function. Systems that need every one of their parts to function seem to be pretty rare. But it is extremely common for there to exist some arrangement of parts too difficult to appear accidentally, with most but not all of the parts being necessary for function. 

Below are some categories of innovations. These categories are not mutually exclusive.


Name

Description

Example(s)

Type A Innovation

Innovation requires all of its parts to have any functional benefit

Mousetrap, probably some biological units

Type B Innovation

Innovation requires almost all of its parts before any functional benefit

Jet aircraft, many protein molecules. Suspension bridge. Television, digital computer.

Type C Innovation

Innovation requires most of its parts before any benefit

Cells, most protein molecules, an automobile (which doesn't need its roof, doors or seats or car hood or bumper to be functional), electric fan (which gives some benefit even if the cage and stand are missing), cardiovascular system

Type D Innovation

Innovation requires a series of sub-components, each of which is useless until mostly completed.

Office tower. Each floor provides a benefit. But the construction of each floor requires many new parts, and no floor is useful until mainly completed. Also porcupine barbs (each barb is useful).

Type E innovation

Innovation may have some use in a relatively simple fractional form, but then requires many more parts organized in the right way to achieve a higher level of usefulness

Vision systems (?)

Type F innovation

Innovation requires an arrangement of several complex parts before becoming useful, with at least 25% of its part existing and well-arranged until functionality is achieved


Type G innovation

As each small simple part of the innovation is added, usefulness is slightly increased

Roof insulation, but almost nothing in the world of biology.

Most of the impressive innovations in biology seem to be Type B innovations or Type C innovations. Such innovations are not credibly explained as being the results of blind accidental processes, and are not credibly explained by any ideas of evolutionary biologists. But such Type B innovations and Type C innovations are not "irreducibly complex" in the sense of requiring all of their parts to be functional.  So such innovations are not appropriately described by an analogy of a mousetrap. 

The most common biological innovations are protein molecules, which consist of hundreds of amino acids arranged in the right way to achieve a functional end. Humans have more than 20,000 types of protein molecules, and in the animal kingdom there are billions of types of protein molecules. The average human protein molecule has about 480 amino acids, and some proteins have more than 700 amino acids. Most protein molecules have more than thirty times as many parts as a mousetrap. Most protein molecules require most or almost all of their amino acid parts to be functional, but probably can still function if one or two of those amino acids are missing.  So we should not be describing such molecules as "irreducibly complex," in the sense of requiring every one of their parts. But such molecules can be credibly described as "accidentally unachievable," for there is no credible scenario under which such molecules can arise because of random natural processes.  The boast that scientists have figured out the origin of species is one that arose long before scientists understood the complexity of protein molecules, and is a boast that should have been retracted as soon as the complexity of protein molecules was discovered in the middle of the twentieth century. 

Michael Behe's latest book is entitled "A Mousetrap for Darwin." By sticking to the lame and clumsy analogy of a mousetrap, Behe has made things too easy for his critics. We can imagine their thoughts:

"Why my job is not too hard -- all I have to do is explain how life could  accidentally get things as complex as a mousetrap. That shouldn't be too hard; mousetraps aren't very complex." 

Is there a better analogy we could use to replace this not-very-good analogy of a mousetrap? As I mentioned above, the impressive things about organisms is that they are examples of HIRDREOC, which stands for Hierarchical Information-Rich Dynamic Reproducing Enormously Organized Complexity.  A car of the future might be an example of such a thing. If we imagine a car of the future, we can get an analogy for something that is HIRDREOC. 

Let's consider each of the words in that acronym:

Hierarchical: Today a car has an organization that is somewhat hierarchical.  A car has two wheeled axles, each of which is composed of smaller components (a wheel and an axle). The engine of a car has a somewhat hierarchical organization. Each engine is composed of several pistons and several cam shafts.  Each seat unit consists of several parts, when we consider the position adjustment lever and the seat belt. We can imagine a car of the future that is even more hierarchical. Each window might be a complex unit consisting of many sub parts, such as parts that automatically cause the window to become visible despite rain or dust, and parts that automatically reduce the window's visibility when you yell "reduce my visibility to others" or "too much sun." Each seat in the car might consist of many different parts, including its own individual video screen and sound system, allowing three different passengers to enjoy three different movies while the car is driving.  

Information-Rich: In the 1960's a car would be information rich only in the sense that there would almost always be maps in its glove compartment. Nowadays there may be no such maps, but many cars are information-rich in the sense of having computerized components that use information.  We can imagine a car of the future being very information rich, with a built-in GPS and mapping system, so that your current location (on a map) is always displayed on a small screen on the car dashboard. Such a car might also have information that warns you of upcoming bad weather on the route you are driving, or information that warns you to slow down whenever you drive though some zone with a lower speed limit (such as a school zone). 

Dynamic: A car is dynamic in the sense of being very mobile, and in the sense of having engine parts such as pistons that are constantly in motion. We can imagine a car of the future that would be even more dynamic. It might, for example, have tires that automatically repair themselves when punctured.  Or it might have an automatic vacuuming system that cleans up food spills instantly. Or instead of just having air bags, the car of the future might have air balls that instantly inflate when a collision occurs, protecting you from both head-on collisions and side collisions.  We can also imagine a car of the future having many additional dynamic features, such as (1) automatically self-cleaning windows; (2) an ability to hook itself up automatically to a gas pump or a fueling unit, allowing the owner to refuel without getting his hands dirty, or (3) an ability for the car to contract and reduce its own size to fit into a smaller parking space, or (4) an ability to change itself into a convertible, so that the roof of the car slides out of view when you tell it do so.  

Reproducing: Cars currently lack the ability to reproduce, but we can imagine some super-fancy car of the future that might have the ability to reproduce. It might have the astonishing ability to split into two different cars, which would be useful when you and your wife want to drive in different directions. 

Enormously organized: Cars are enormously organized, consisting of a fine-tuned  arrangement of thousands of parts to achieve a particular functional end.  Nowadays there are some 30,000 parts that make up a car. We can imagine a car of the future with millions of parts. 

car of the future


Like someone saying that a Super Bowl victory requires a bit of effort here and there, you would be describing things rather poorly if you stated that an organism contains some innovations as hard to accidentally achieve as mousetraps. You would be describing things much better if you stated that a large organism contains fine-tuned functionality as accidentally unachievable as a car of the future,  functionality that is HIRDREOC (Hierarchical Information-Rich Dynamic Reproducing Enormously Organized Complexity).  The functionality in large organisms is trillions of times more impressive (and trillions of times harder to accidentally achieve) than the not-very-impressive functionality of a mousetrap.