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Tuesday, March 11, 2025

An Analysis of the Bunk in a Caltech Cosmology Press Release

 Let us look at all of the many examples of bunk, baloney and BS in a recent press release on the topic of a new telescope called SPHEREx.  The press release can be read here.  The topic was a new satellite that will be launched in an attempt to do studies related to the groundless theory of primordial cosmic inflation. Not to be confused with the seemingly well-established Big Bang theory that the universe suddenly began around 13 billion years ago, the theory of primordial cosmic inflation is the theory that for just a fraction of its first second, the universe underwent a super-fast type of expansion called exponential expansion. 

CALTECH PRESS RELEASE

REALITY

Title: “What Hundreds of Millions of Galaxies Can Teach Us About the Big Bang.”

Galaxies are believed to have formed billions or at least very many millions of years after the Big Bang. You can't actually learn anything about the Big Bang from studying galaxies, just as you can't learn about ancient times by studying the Renaissance period.

Subtitle: “NASA's SPHEREx mission will provide new clues about the explosive, inflationary phase of our universe.”

No it will not, and there is no good reason to believe such an    inflationary phase ever happened. The universe seems to have underwent a dramatic expansion early in its history, but there is no reason to believe that the universe ever expanded at an explosive, exponential rate, as imagined by the adherents of the cosmic inflation theory. 

“Among several big questions the [SPHEREx] mission is poised to answer is how our universe came to be.”

This claim is the most outrageous fiction. The mission cannot possibly tell us any such thing. Physical factors such as the very extreme density of mass-energy in the first 200,000 years will forever prevent any observation that could explain what caused the Big Bang, and will forever prevent any possibility of observing what happened during the first 200,000 years after the Big Bang.

“SPHEREx will provide new clues in the quest to understand cosmic inflation, a much-studied theory that states our newborn universe expanded a trillion-trillion-fold in a fraction of a second—much less time than it takes to snap your fingers.”

While there seems to be good evidence that the universe expanded from a tiny point billions of years ago (in other words, that the Big Bang occurred), there is no good evidence that the  cosmic inflation theory is true, and all attempts to get evidence for it have failed. There is zero evidence that "the universe expanded a trillion-trillion-fold in a fraction of a second" or that anything like such exponential expansion occurred. Instead of it being one theory, the cosmic inflation theory is a family of many hundreds of theories, making predictions “all over the map.” “Provide new clues” is a vague phrase used to try to justify research failing to either confirm or disprove a theory, often used for research of little importance or relevance.

“As mind-bending as inflation is, the theory, which was proposed by physicist Alan Guth and others in the late 1970s and early 1980s, continues to stand the test of time, making several accurate predictions about features in our universe. "

A bad misrepresentation of the status of cosmic inflation theory. No distinctive and exact predictions of the cosmic inflation were ever verified. Since there are so many hundreds of versions of the theory, which each can predict many different things by varying the input parameters, inevitably some match to reality will be found. But no version of the cosmic inflation theory has had any impressive predictive success. 

"Now, the pressing question on most cosmologists' minds is not whether inflation occurred but how.”

The insinuation that most cosmologists believe in the theory is not backed up by any evidence. There is no secret ballot poll of cosmologists showing such a thing. At the end of a 2016 paper, the one here, there is a poll of cosmologists. In Question 11 of the poll, on page 77, cosmologists were asked to complete a sentence beginning with "Our understanding of inflation  will..."  The results were these:

  • Only 44% predicted success for the main effort of cosmologists to get evidence for the theory of primordial cosmic inflation, predicting that there would be  "primordial B-mode detection" occurring.
  • 7%  predicted that inflation would be "ruled out."
  • 5% predicted there would be a detection of "non-zero spatial curvature," something that would rule out the theory of primordial cosmic inflation. 
It seems at the time of such a poll, there was no majority favoring of the theory of primordial cosmic inflation, with a significant fraction of cosmologists rejecting it.  In the eight years since the poll, there have been big expensive projects trying to get "primordial B-mode detection," but all have failed. If the poll were to be taken today, it would probably show an even larger fraction of cosmologists rejecting the theory of primordial cosmic inflation.  

"Inflation successfully describes our universe, but we are struggling to understand how it came about."


The theory of cosmic inflation does not successfully describe our universe in any detail. The admission about "struggling to understand how it came about" is an admission that there is no solid theoretical understanding of any physical cause that would caused the imagined cosmic inflation to have occurred. 

"SPHEREx's three primary goals are to explore the origins of water and organic molecules in planetary systems, the history of galaxy formation, and the mechanisms behind cosmic inflation—the "bang" in the big bang that set our universe in motion."


There are no conceivable observations of the SPHEREx telescope that could ever explain "the mechanisms behind cosmic inflation—the 'bang' in the big bang that set our universe in motion."

" 'I can't think of a more profound question: studying the first fractions of a seconds of existence,' says Phillip Korngut, the mission's instrument scientist at Caltech. 'The clumpiness in galaxy positions is tied to quantum fluctuations in the early universe when it was unfathomably tiny and hot. We are making precise measurements of galaxy density variations and then will tie that back mathematically to what happened in the early universe.' "


No observations of the SPHEREx telescope will be anything like studying the first fractions of a second of existence. There are so many hundreds of different versions of the cosmic inflation theory (with predictions all over the map) that nothing we observe about galaxies will tell us whether such a theory is true.  

"Scientists introduced the theory of cosmic inflation to explain certain features of our universe that were hard to make sense of with the big bang theory alone."


This is not at all true. The features mentioned do make sense "with the big bang theory alone," under the assumption that the Big Bang was purposefully caused to lead to a habitable universe.  The theory of cosmic inflation was advanced solely to avoid such an assumption, which conflicted with atheistic preferences of cosmologists. 

"The goal of the BICEP–Keck collaboration is to search for telltale signs of inflation: curly patterns in polarized light called B-modes. These swirly patterns may have been produced as gravitational waves—which are ripples not in matter but in space-time itself—washed through the swelling cosmos. The current phase of the collaboration, called BICEP Array, includes the most sensitive receivers yet, each about 10 times more powerful than the earlier generation. Although the collaboration has not detected B-modes, it has set the field's strongest upper limits on their brightness."



We have here a description of a gigantic failure of the cosmic inflation theory. Vast sums of money have been spent looking for the B-modes the theory predicted, but no such B-modes have been found. The failure is a strong reason for rejecting all of the claims the Caltech press release has made about the cosmic inflation theory, and for disbelieving in such a theory. 

"Using SPHEREx's galaxy maps, scientists will be able to look for a tantalizing feature of many theories of inflation that has been nearly impossible to address until now—namely, whether or not the distribution of tiny ripples of matter formed at the time of inflation follows a so-called Gaussian distribution."


Many versions of the cosmic inflation theory predict such a Gaussian distribution, and many other versions of the theory do not predict such a Gaussian distribution. So the described observations will not help determine whether the cosmic inflation theory is true. 

"Physicists think that inflation was caused by a repulsive blast that came from a high-energy field referred to as the inflaton—in other words, from a single field."





The so-called inflaton field is entirely chimerical, having no basis in any established physics. Cosmologists speculating about an inflaton field are in the same class as theologians speculating about the wind pressure caused by the flapping of angel wings. 

"By measuring the degree to which galaxies clump together across the sky, researchers can test complex non-Gaussian models of inflation against the simpler Gaussian ones."


This statement  confirms what I said above, that measuring such galaxy clumping will not actually do anything to confirm the cosmic inflation theory, because there are both "Gaussian" and "non-Gaussian" versions of the theory. 

"Chen Heinrich, a Caltech research scientist on the SPHEREx team, notes that the kinds of quantum-scale particle and field interactions they are studying cannot be reproduced in a lab on Earth. 'The universe has done the experiment for us,' she says. 'We can learn about the earliest moments of our universe by analyzing the cosmic web of galaxies. It's crazy cool.' "


Not crazy cool, just silly enough to be called crazy. You cannot learn about the earliest moments of the universe by analyzing galaxies. 

leaky old theory

When you add up all the money that has been spent trying to confirm the theory of primordial cosmic inflation and all the money that has been spent trying to confirm the theory of dark matter, you have a sum of something like 3,000,000,000 dollars. No good evidence for been found for either thing, so the dollars have been wasted. These efforts are schematically depicted in the visual below:


The paper "Primordial Gravitational Waves 2024" tells us the implications of the failure to find primordial b-modes.  The paper says, "When comparing the theoretical predictions of selected inflationary scenarios with the most stringent constraint from BPD, we find that natural inflation and models with concave potential are obviously ruled out, and power-law inflation and R2 inflation are basically excluded at 2 σ CL."  That basically means that all of the main theories of cosmic inflation have been ruled out by observations.  The Caltech press release utterly fails to discuss this situation honestly, and gives us a phony "all is well" narrative. Of course die-hard cosmic inflation theorists are almost boundlessly ingenious at inventing convoluted new "epicycles" of speculation to try and save their cherished theory, at the cost of making their arcane speculations more and more elaborate and more and more unbelievable. 

It is a sign of utter dysfunction in science when a theory that fails to predict correctly is not written off as a failure, and you have a situation when endless new speculations are introduced to try to keep the sinking theory afloat.  For 45 years cosmic inflation theory has been a cesspool of unwarranted hype and wasted effort. In a recent Reuters article a scientist is quoted as saying, "We have pretty good evidence that inflation occurred." There is zero evidence that the primordial cosmic inflation referred to ever occurred. The band of cosmologists that believe in cosmic inflation theory is a diehard ivory tower belief community consisting of only about a thousand persons, a cult-like group dedicated to propagating its cherished belief dogma, no matter what is observed. Given the long record of misstatements on this topic, we should not trust any generalizations or evidence claims that the members of this belief community make about this topic. 

The cosmic inflation theory (really a large family of theories) was originally invented to try to show that the universe's beginning was not so enormously fine-tuned. But no version of the theory ever succeeded in reducing the gigantic improbability of the universe naturally beginning in a way ending up with a habitable universe. All that happened was that a huge case of fine-tuning in one place (the universe's initial expansion rate) was theoretically removed, at the price of introducing equally great fine-tuning in lots of other places. So this was pointless "robbing Peter to pay Paul" activity. 

The cosmic inflation theory is like someone trying to reduce the improbability of Lee Harvey Oswald getting two shots hitting US President John F. Kennedy in Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963, by postulating that Oswald got only one successful shot, and that a second shot hitting Kennedy came from a second gunman on the grassy knoll who coincidentally was shooting elsewhere in Dealey Plaza at exactly the same time, not because of any plot involving both. Such a theory is useless, because while it reduces the luck required in one spot (the Texas School Book Depository building where Oswald shot from), it does not reduce the overall improbability of two shots hitting Kennedy, given the extreme unlikelihood of two unconnected shooters shooting in the same place and the same time. Similarly, cosmic inflation theory may theoretically reduce some improbability at one instant, but does not reduce the overall improbability of a universe starting out in a way that leads to a habitable universe, because so many special "just right" conditions must be met for a universe to undergo an exponential expansion (as imagined by cosmic inflation theory), and then end up in the state we now observe. The 45-year get-nowhere misadventure of cosmic inflation theory is hamster-wheel science at its worst. 


Below are some relevant quotes:
  • "Two improbable criteria have to be satisfied for inflation to start. First, shortly after the big bang, there has to be a patch of space where the quantum fluctuations of spacetime have died down and the space is well described by Einstein’s classical equations of general relativity; second, the patch of space must be flat enough and have a smooth enough distribution of energy that the inflationary energy can grow to dominate all other forms of energy. Several theoretical estimates of the probability of finding a patch with these characteristics just after the big bang suggest that it is more difficult than finding a snowy mountain equipped with a ski lift and well-maintained ski slopes in the middle of a desert. More important, if it were easy to find a patch emerging from the big bang that is flat and smooth enough to start inflation, then inflation would not be needed in the first place. Recall that the entire motivation for introducing it was to explain how the visible universe came to have these properties; if starting inflation requires those same properties, with the only difference being that a smaller patch of space is needed, that is hardly progress. Such issues are just the beginning of our problems, however. Not only does inflation require starting conditions that are difficult to obtain, it also impossible to stop inflation once it gets going....If inflation took place the CMB should contain evidence of cosmic gravitational waves—ripples in spacetime caused by the early stretching—yet it does not." -- Three cosmologists (link). 
  • "The problem is that no particular model of inflation has been shown to work yet." -- Physicist Philip Gibbs (link).
  • "The staggering amount of fine-tuning which is required disturbs many cosmologists."  -- Two physicists, referring to the cosmic inflation theory (link). 

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