All of those who regard
the 2016 presidential election as one of the great disasters of
modern times may take slight consolation in the thought that there
are much bigger disasters we could have suffered. Our planet could
have been hit by a comet or an asteroid. A solar flare could have
caused an electromagnetic pulse effect that could have wiped out all
our electricity. The Yellowstone Park super-volcano could have
erupted, burying much of North America in ash. Or a nuclear war could
have started.
There are some who argue
along the following lines:
We're in a cosmic
shooting gallery. A comet or an asteroid could hit us at any time.
Then there's the threat of nuclear war, not in mention the eventual
ruinous effects of global warming. How can we protect ourselves from
the risk of extinction posed by such hazards? We must go to Mars! The
sooner we get started on Mars colonization, the better.
But there are some reasons
for doubting that Mars colonization is our best bet to avoid the
threat of extinction. One problem is the risk of a Mars landing
failing. This risk seems very large in light of the fact that the
European space agency spent many millions on a Mars lander that
recently crashed on Mars, resulting in a total loss of the mission.
We never see movies with a plot like this:
An asteroid is
discovered in space, heading for collision with our planet. The world
rushes together a Mars spaceship. Heroic astronauts set out for the
long voyage to Mars, which they hope to colonize. When they try to
land, things don't go right, and their lander crashes and burns.
But such an outcome is a
distinct possibility. And what about the radiation hazard, both on
Mars and during the flight to Mars? Space is filled with deadly
cosmic rays, and it is very hard to build a spaceship that fully
protects against such radiation. By the time astronauts get to Mars,
they might have damaged brains, with the disastrous effects described
in my science fiction story Mars Peril. Another possibility
is that by the time the astronauts got to Mars, the radiation during the
voyage over may have caused harmful mutations. Such mutations might
show up as birth defects in the first generation of children born on
Mars.
Then there is the fact
that once astronauts got to Mars, they might still suffer great
hazard from radiation. This is because the very thin atmosphere of
Mars does a poor job of shielding the surface from radiation.
If we are faced with an
apocalyptic threat, it would seem there is a better option than
rushing to colonize Mars. The better option is to stay right here on
Earth, and build underground “Earth colonies” capable of
surviving any type of disaster on the surface of our planet.
It's easy to imagine a
type of structure that would work well and be fairly easy to build.
The algorithm could go something like this:
- 1.Create a rectangular hole in the ground 30 meters deep and 20 meters wide, dumping all of the dug dirt on the sides of this hole.
- Drop at the bottom of this hole a steel structure about 20 meters wide.
- Add on top of the structure 1 or more excavation chutes allowing access to the surface.
- Add some solar panels that could work rather like the periscopes of submarines, capable of being withdrawn deep below the ground during times of surface upheaval, or pushed above the ground when the air above the shelter is relatively calm.
- Dump all of the excavated dirt on top of the steel structure.
- Then clear off some dirt corresponding to the top of the excavation chute and the top of the periscope-style solar panels.
If loaded with sufficient
water and food, and oil and generators, such a structure could
provide shelter for a decade or more, even on a planet that was being
pulverized by a comet, an asteroid, or a nuclear war. The building of
such structures could be facilitated by digging robots, relatively
easy to make.
Of course, such structures
would be too hard-to-make to save a large fraction of humanity in
case of an apocalyptic event. But they would serve well to preserve a
small fraction of the human race to ride out the years of
environmental hell caused by the apocalypse .In most cases of
apocalyptic events, the destructive surface events will only last
several years before things start to slowly normalize.
Given the radiation
problem on Mars, it might be necessary to build underground Mars
bases to protect Martian colonists from cosmic rays. When you go to
the wikipedia.com article on “Colonization of Mars,” you
immediately see a drawing of a proposed Mars base that is largely
underground. But if you're going to be building underground
structures, why not just build them here on Earth? Don't answer,
“Because you could use fancy hydroponic technology to grow crops underground,” because the
same technology could be used in underground shelters on Earth. For
the cost of one Mars mission moving 40 colonists to Mars, you could
probably build underground shelters for 100,000 humans.
You might think that people would go crazy living underground, but it is easy to imagine some tricks that could be used to make things tolerable. For example, we can imagine a large central room with a dome-shaped ceiling. Using projections, lighting tricks, and some vegetation, such a room could be made to simulate being outdoors during various times of day and various seasons, providing a somewhat outdoorsy ambiance to people sheltering underground.
You might think that people would go crazy living underground, but it is easy to imagine some tricks that could be used to make things tolerable. For example, we can imagine a large central room with a dome-shaped ceiling. Using projections, lighting tricks, and some vegetation, such a room could be made to simulate being outdoors during various times of day and various seasons, providing a somewhat outdoorsy ambiance to people sheltering underground.
I'll admit that
underground shelters on Earth have zero glamour, which makes them different
from the high glamour of a Mars colonization mission. But in terms of
bang-for-the-buck, terrestrial underground shelters beat shelters on
Mars hands down.
Another idea for coping
with an apocalypse (without going to Mars) is the idea of
recolonization stations that I discuss here. This is the idea of
putting up specially designed space stations intended to be occupied
for a a decade or more, with the inhabitants of the station then
returning back to our planet, using escape capsules built into the
station. This would not be as cost-effective as underground shelters,
but would probably still be much less expensive than trying to
colonize Mars.
A recolonization station
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