Last
week the billion-dollar LIGO project announced the discovery of
gravitational waves. It is interesting to examine the very absurd
double standard followed by mainstream science when it comes to
instantly accepting announcements such as this (based on a single
rather questionable observational occurrence) while rejecting
evidence for phenomena that is based on decades of experiments.
First,
let's look at the LIGO observational event reported last week, and
some reasons why it may not be so bulletproof. The scientific paper
is here. The observational event occurred on September 14, 2015 at
9:50:45. It lasted only a tenth of a second. Two LIGO observatories
recorded an ultra-faint spike at this instant, one in Hanford, Washington, and
another in Livingston, Lousiana. The signal was so short-lived and faint that it
is best described as a momentary micro-blip.
But
there are several reasons for being skeptical about the claim that
both observatories observed a pair of distant black holes merging.
For one thing, the signal in Louisiana apparently occurred while
there was no one in the control room of the observatory. Two
scientists had left an hour ago, as reported in this press account.
This raises security questions about whether someone could have been
messing around in the control room, unobserved.
We
actually know that sometimes LIGO would have false signals “injected”
into it, by something called the “blind injection group,” but we
are assured that this was not such a false signal. But are we sure?
The New Yorker reports that the scientists investigated whether one
of their colleagues could have faked the signal:
Reitze,
Weiss, González, and a handful of others considered who, if anyone,
was familiar enough with both the apparatus and the algorithms to
have spoofed the system and covered his or her tracks. There were
only four candidates, and none of them had a plausible motive. “We
grilled those guys,” Weiss said. “And no, they didn’t do it.”
Ultimately, he said, “We accepted that the most economical
explanation was that it really is a black-hole pair.”
That
is a little less than airtight. Apparently at least four people could
have faked the signal, but we are asked to dismiss such a possibility
solely on the rather questionable assertion that “none of them had
a plausible motive” and the fact that they were questioned.
We
should also ask: could other people have faked the signal, other than
these four? We would expect such a possibility if the data was stored
online, in database servers that could be hacked. Since the reported
observation event covered less than a second, it would seem to be an
easy job to fake such a thing. If a standard SQL database was used to
store the data, someone would merely need to create a short SQL
script with a few lines of Update statements. Once you login to a
remote server using Telnet or some other utility, you would merely
need to login to the database and run the script. Repeat the process
on a second server, and you've done everything you need to fake
things. Some foreign hacker might have done that from his living
room. How can we be confident that such a thing didn't occur?
American corporations suffer from all kinds of weird hacking
incidents from other countries.
According to this account, an
expensive gravitational wave observatory has just been approved in
India, because of the observations reported by LIGO. So conceivably
foreigners may have had a motive for hacking.
There
are other possibilities that don't involve fraud. One possibility is
that the incredibly sensitive equipment simply didn't work quite
right. That seems all too possible. At this link the equipment is
described: “The interferometers consist of suspended mirrors,
which reflect the laser beams which are used to sense tiny mirror
motions — 1/10,000th the diameter of a proton — caused by the
passage of a gravitational wave.” Why should we have much
confidence in something so sensitive, measuring something so
microscopic that we should doubt the ability of anyone to accurately
measure it? These are perhaps the most sensitive measurements that have ever
been attempted.
I
may also note that the event occurred at the very beginning of a
major upgrade. Every software manager knows that new releases or
major upgrades are often the source of various types of bugs.
Another
possibility is that an earthly signal was detected. The scientific
paper claims that such a possibility was considered: “Exhaustive
investigations of instrumental and environmental disturbances were
performed, giving no evidence to suggest that GW150914 could be an
instrumental artifact.” That doesn't sound airtight at all, and
the scientific paper gives very few details of how such an investigation
occurred. The paper says that they looked for an earthly source that
could have produced the signal, and didn't find one. How does that
rule out such a possibility? They could have overlooked some earthly
source that produced the signal. Since the LIGO observatories are
kilometers long, we should expect that they should be sensitive to
seismographic events originating from our planet itself.
There
are other explanations that could explain the data without
gravitational waves being involved. A software error or hardware
error could explain the data. There could be a bug somewhere in the
very complicated LIGO software that produced a false alarm, due to
some programming error.
As
for the very brief match of the signals between the two
observatories, they are not an exact match, although they look about
95% similar. Below is the graph from the scientific paper, showing observations from the different observatories during a time of less than a second. Even though the data from the Hanford observatory has been "shifted" and "inverted" (possibly to make it look like a close match to the data from the Livingston observatory), there is not an exact match between the lines.
Such a match could have been found from a “data
mining” database query looking for a match. If you give me two random
sources of data (such as stock prices in 2006 and bond prices in 2015), collected continuously over months, then with the
right SQL query I will probably be able to find some tiny time slice where
the data matches up, purely by coincidence, giving a false impression that the same thing was being observed.
There
is another reason for doubt. A scientific paper co-authored by a
huge team of scientists estimated that a project such as LIGO should
produce 40 detections of gravitational waves each year, from “compact
binary coalescence sources.” But so far the LIGO project has
announced only one detection, the event of September 14, 2015. Where
are all the other such events, that are supposed to be happening almost once
a week? This may cast doubt on the LIGO announcement, until such
time as other observations are made.
There
are two parts of the LIGO announcement. The first is the claim that
gravitational waves were detected (which as we have seen is on rather
shaky ground). The second is the claim that these waves were caused
by a merger of distant black holes. The second claim is speculative,
and is not well supported by the evidence.
The scientists had no
direct evidence that the claimed signal came from a distant black
hole. What they basically did is to do some calculations showing a
hypothetical scenario by which a black hole merger might have
produced the described signal. But that is not at all the same as
showing that such a hypothetical scenario was the actual cause.
Given a gravitational wave observation, there are always many
possible ways of explaining it astronomically. We are reminded here
of the BICEP2 affair, when scientists triumphantly claimed that the
signals they detected came from the dawn of time. It was later shown
that just such a signal could have been produced by dust. There was
no way of even telling from which direction the LIGO signal was coming, so
the scientists did nothing to show that the signal came from an exact spot in the
sky where black holes are known to exist.
You
would think that facts such as these would cause our scientists to be
cautious. Science is supposed to require repeated observations, not
one-shot wonders. But the scientific community has thrown caution to
the wind in this matter. Based on a single rather questionable
observational event, the scientific community has acted as if LIGO is
proof of gravitational waves and proof of a black hole merger. The
first claim is shaky, and the second claim is extremely shaky.
We
can contrast this with the situation in regard to evidence for ESP
(extrasensory perception). Gathered for over a century, the
observational evidence for ESP is currently vastly greater than the
one-second LIGO evidence. The Society for Psychical Research and
other organizations started publishing experimental data as early as
the 19th century. At universities such as Duke University,
researchers such as Joseph Rhine spent many years doing experimental
research that repeatedly produced spectacular successes, such as the
extremely convincing Rhine-Pearce experiments and the equally
convincing Pearce-Pratt experiments discussed here, getting results with a chance likelihood of about 1 in 10 trillion. Even more compelling (as described here) was the 73% accuracy rate recorded by a professor
at Hunter College, with a person located at another location, making 1850 guesses that should have produced by chance a success rate of only 20%. Also very compelling are ESP tests in recent decades using
sensory deprivation studies involving a technique called the ganzfeld
technique, and some recent tests with ESP and autistic children, as reported here.
But
have our mainstream scientists accepted these results, decades of
convincing evidence? No. They keep demanding that more airtight
tests be done, no matter how airtight is the evidence. But the same
mainstream scientists will instantly accept some “gravitational
wave” finding based on a single questionable observational event
lasting a tenth of a second. It's a ridiculous case of a double
standard. When our mainstream scientists have something that they
want to believe in, they seem to have an extremely lenient standard.
But when they have something they don't want to believe in, they
adopt an exclusionary standard a thousand times more stringent.
It's
hard to imagine a more outrageous double standard: if it's something
our scientists don't want to believe in, then a hundred years of
compelling observations are dismissed as “no evidence”; but if
it's something they do want to believe in, then a single questionable
observation event lasting a tenth of a second is counted as
conclusive proof.
We
can imagine if a country club operated in a similar way. It might
work like this. If a white person tried to enter the front door of
the club, the person guarding the door would simply ask “Are you a
member?” and would let in the white person if he answered “Yes.”
But if a person of color tried to enter the door, the guard would
demand to see a birth certificate, a driver's license, a Social
Security card, a work photo ID, and a college diploma. And when all
those were produced, the person of color would still not be admitted,
on the grounds that there was still doubt about his identity.
Postscript: By 2020 it is being claimed that 23 times gravitational waves have been detected. But in 2019 a physicist stated the following:
"The signals that LIGO and Virgo see are well explained by gravitational wave events. But we cannot be sure that these are actually signals coming from outer space and not some unknown terrestrial effect."
Postscript: By 2020 it is being claimed that 23 times gravitational waves have been detected. But in 2019 a physicist stated the following:
"The signals that LIGO and Virgo see are well explained by gravitational wave events. But we cannot be sure that these are actually signals coming from outer space and not some unknown terrestrial effect."
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