John William Waterhouse, The Crystal Ball
Whenever we hear about some Cool New Thing that we might enjoy in the
future as a result of technological innovation, our first question
is usually: when will we be able to get that? Let us make this kind
of speculation a little more systematic. Let us try to figure out
whether there is some general formula or equation we can use to
calculate when some future innovation will be available so the
average man or woman can benefit from it. We can call this formula
the Crystal Ball Formula.
The average unsophisticated technological prognosticator will use a
very simple formula to calculate when a future invention will be
available. The seer simply estimates how long it would take to
produce the innovation, given generous funding. Then that length of
time is added to the current year to produce an estimated arrival
date for the innovation. For example, a writer might estimate that we
could have robotic lawn mowers in ten years, so the writer might then
say (in the year 2013) that you will not have to worry about mowing
your lawn once it gets to be 2023.
This naïve formula can be expressed as follows:
Ya = Yc+ N
where Ya is the year when the future innovation will
arrive,
Yc is the current year,
N is the number of years of development needed to produce the
innovation.
However, this formula is too simple. For one thing, it works only in
a case when well-funded scientists or inventors are working full
blast on some future invention, and will keep working on it until we
get it. Just as common (or more common) is a case when development
of some future invention is delayed because of a lack of market
demand or a lack of public interest.
For example, consider the possibility of lunar hotels. There is
little market demand for lunar hotels. If companies started working
full blast on lunar hotels, they might be able to develop them in
fifteen years. But if we are to estimate when lunar hotels are
available, we should really factor in a decade or more in which there
isn't much work being done on lunar hotels. So we might assume that
perhaps in the year 2025 development will speed up on lunar hotels,
and that they might then be available around 2040 after fifteen years
of work.
So let us make a revised formula that takes into effect cases in
which technological development is slowed because of a lack of
full-time current funding. The revised formula goes like this:
Ya = Yc+ N1 + N2
where Ya is the year when the future innovation
will arrive,
Yc is the current year,
N1 is the number of future years before Ya
when relatively little work will be done to achieve the invention (or when the development work is not well-funded),
N2 is the number of years of well-funded,
full-time work needed to achieve the invention.
This formula leads to more realistic estimates. For example, if we
want to estimate when we will have floating villages, we might
imagine that N1 is 20, because there is currently no
demand for floating villages. We might also estimate that N2 in
this case is 15, if we think that floating villages could be built
after 15 well-funded years of development. So we would then estimate
that floating villages will arrive in about 35 years.
But our formula still needs some additions, because there are two
other things we need to consider. The first is the fact that
technological innovations are often delayed because of regulatory
roadblocks or social roadblocks. For example, newly developed drugs
in the US often have to wait years before they are approved by the
FDA. A recent paper by three professors complained that US “drug
war” regulations are slowing to a crawl research on psychoactive
drugs that could produce breakthroughs in treatments for conditions
such as post-traumatic stress syndrome. Another example is
restrictions on stem-cell research during the Bush administration.
It may well be that many exotic future inventions will be delayed
because of similar roadblocks.
Another thing we need to consider is that even after a technological
breakthrough occurs, it may be a long time before it gets out of the
laboratory and becomes available at a price that is affordable to the
average person. This factor is typically ignored by technological
prognosticators. We had video phones in the Bell labs around 1972,
but it was only about the year 2000 or later that the average person
could afford to have a phone conversation in which he would see the
person he was talking to (through systems such as Skype). We had
electricity working well in the laboratory about thirty years before
the average person had an electrified home. Today we see numerous
medical breakthroughs that are still ridiculously expensive long
after they were developed. Some cancer drugs cost more than $100,000
per year.
To take these two factors into account, let us modify our formula
again to make it look like this:
Ya = Yc+ N1 + N2 + D1
+ D2
where Ya is the year when the future innovation
will be available and affordable for the average person,
Yc is the current year,
N1 is the number of future years before Ya
when relatively little work will be done to achieve the invention (or when the development work is not well funded),
N2 is the number of years of well-funded,
full-time work needed to achieve the invention,
D1 is the number of years that the invention is
delayed by regulatory delays or social restraints or cultural inhibitions,
D2 is the number of years between the time the
invention is created, approved and accepted and the time the invention is affordable by the average person.
So now we have our finished Crystal Ball Formula. The good news is
that we have created a more realistic way of assessing when future
inventions will be available to the average person. The bad news is
that this more realistic formula leads us to believe that lots of
those cool futuristic things we are hoping to have one day may not be
available to us until much later than we had hoped for.
For example, consider a youth pill, one that makes old people young.
In this case we might imagine that N2 is 25, meaning
that it would require 25 years of full-blast, well-funded work to
create a youth pill. We might optimistically assume that N1
is 0 (as might be true if the pharmaceutical companies are working
full blast on such an innovation, and keep doing so until they
succeed). But to be realistic we might estimate D1 as
10, meaning that if someone invents a youth pill it is likely to be
delayed for at least a decade by regulatory constraints and
resistance from conservative opponents. We might also estimate D2
as 10, meaning that if someone invents a youth pill and gets
it approved, it will probably be at least another ten years before it
is affordable. So alas, you aren't likely to get a youth pill in
your medicine cabinet until another 45 years or more, unless you're a
millionaire.
Depressing as these more realistic estimates may be, they help us
plan our lives better. If it's really going to be 45 years before you
get that youth pill, you had better eat your vegetables now and cut
down on your red meat now and stop smoking now if you hope to live
long enough to use that youth pill.
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