Contrarian Predictions Regarding Biology, the Brain and Technology

I will now offer some predictions regarding the future. I won't do much to explain the conceptual outlook that motivates these predictions. But anyone reading the posts on this blog and this blog can read about some of the evidence that motivates these predictions.

Prediction #1: No place in the brain outside of the cell nucleus will be found to have the stability needed to store memories for decades; and no evidence will be found that episodic memories or learned knowledge are stored in the cell nucleus.

Today's neuroscientists typically claim that memories are stored in the synapses of the brain. But there is a reason why we should reject this claim: we know that the proteins that make up synapses are very short-lived, having average lifetimes of only a few weeks. Such an average lifetime of a synapse protein is only a thousandth of the length of time that humans can remember things (many seniors having good memories of things that happened more than 50 years old). I predict that nothing will be discovered that resolves this discrepancy. I predict that our neuroscientists will never discover any place in the brain that is a suitable stable storage place for 50-year-old memories. No place in the brain will be found that is both stable and offers lots of storage room for all the memories humans have. DNA in the cell nucleus is stable, but its storage space is already used up by genomic information.

Prediction #2: There will not be discovered in the brain anything like a neural positioning system or a neural indexing system or anything else that would be useful in explaining how a brain could instantly retrieve memories.

Humans are able to retrieve memories instantly, even memories of knowledge they haven't thought about in years. But the human brain seems to have nothing that might explain this speed of recall. There are two things that can enable fast retrieval in a system: a positioning system and indexing. A simple book has both. The positioning system is the page numbering. The indexing appears at the back of the book. I predict that nothing like these things will be discovered in the brain, or anything else that might explain how instant memory recall could be accomplished by a brain. By a "neural positioning system" I refer not to some neural system for finding a human's position in the world, but to a system that might allow one part of the brain to quickly read from some precise tiny location far away in the brain. 

Prediction #3: No type of encoding scheme will ever be discovered by which learned knowledge or episodic memories could be stored as neural states.

A typical neuroscientist claims that memories are stored in the brain. But learned knowledge or episodic memories can't simply be poured into little spots of the brain like someone might pour tea into a tea cup. If the brain stores memories as neural states, there would need to be some type of encoding scheme by which information and sensory experience was translated into neural states. No such encoding scheme has ever been discovered, and I predict that it never will be discovered. The genetic code was discovered about 1950, and we are many decades overdue for a discovery of a “neural code.” Such a code will not be discovered because it doesn't exist. It doesn't exist because our memories and learned knowledge are not actually stored in our brains (a statement I make for the 30 reasons discussed here).

Prediction #4: Other than genetic and epigenetic information in the nucleus of neurons, no sign will ever be found of encoded information stored in the brain.

Even if you have no idea what encoding system was used to encode some information, you can still discover evidence that encoded information exists. Before Europeans were able to unravel how hieroglyphics worked, they knew that hieroglyphics contained encoded information. Such Europeans were able to see many repeated symbols, and these are the hallmarks of encoded information. 

Repeated symbols in hieroglyphics

In the case of the brain, we know there is one type of encoded information in it. That information is the DNA information found in all neurons and in all other cells. But other than this genetic information, no real sign of encoded information has ever been discovered in the brain. Synapses (the alleged storage place of memories) have been examined at very high resolutions using instruments such as electron microscopes, and no sign of encoded information has ever been found in synapses. I predict that scientists never will discover any sign of encoded information in the brain, other than the genetic and epigenetic information in the nucleus. There will never be some “Eureka” moment when scientists discover tiny little repeated symbols in synapses.

Prediction #5: It will never be possible to enhance human memory by downloading information into a brain.

If you believe that memories are stored in the brain, you should believe in a technological possibility: that it will be possible to download knowledge into a brain, through some technology that writes information to your synapses. I predict that such a technology will never exist.

Prediction #6: It will never be possible to make computers with a general purpose intelligence.

Computers are getting more and more proficient, partially because computers are getting faster, and partially because more and more human logic, information and data is being transferred to computers. We have heard a lot of hype about artificial intelligence. But nothing like a general computer intelligence has ever appeared. I predict that such a thing never will appear. Computers do not actually understand anything, and have never had anything like human cognition or human self-hood. There is no imaginable technological path that might lead to a machine with actual consciousness, self-hood and understanding such as humans have. Because human understanding and intelligence is not actually caused by the brain, it will not be possible to make machines conscious or cognizant by leveraging any type of “mind from matter” principle discovered by studying the human brain.

Prediction #7: It will never be possible to upload a human mind into a computer or a robot.

Darwinist materialism has always had many similarities to a religion, and we now see the philosophy of transhumanism supplying a kind of finishing touch to this stealth religion. That finishing touch is the eschatological idea that humans will be able to gain immortality by uploading their minds into computers or robots. I predict that such a thing will never occur. It is not possible because the brain does not actually store a human's memories, and is not actually the source or cause of human consciousness. If you are sad about not being able to upload your mind into a computer or a robot, do not be. The very reasons for thinking that such a thing is impossible are reasons for thinking that your consciousness will continue after your death. If you mind is not being generated by your brain (or an aspect of your brain), and your memories are not stored in your brain, there is every reason to suspect that your self-hood will continue after your brain stops functioning (as we seem to see occurring when people report near-death experiences).

Prediction #8: There will continue to be discovered cases in which people have good memories and good minds despite very large brain damage.

We already have very many cases of people with good memories and good minds, despite very large brain damage. These include hemispherectomy patients who had half of their brains removed, and people such as John Lorber's patients who lost most of their brains due to disease. Since such cases are caused by a very real aspect of reality (that neither intelligence nor memory is brain-caused),  additional cases of this type will continue to be discovered. 

Prediction #9: All attempts to reproduce the origin of life by mimicking chemical conditions in the early earth will fail, and scientists will not even be able to produce a single functional protein through any simulation of early earth conditions.

For more than a century scientists have been trying to reproduce the origin of life by doing laboratory experiments. They have basically accomplished nothing by all this work. The most they have ever produced is a few types of amino acids, only the simplest types. Contrary to the misleading hype that has been written, amino acids are not at all the building blocks of life. They are merely the building blocks of the building blocks of life. The actual building blocks of life are things such as proteins and nucleic acids. Even the simplest living thing requires 100+ types of proteins, but scientists have never produced even a single functional protein in any experiment simulating conditions on the early earth. I predict that they never will produce any functional protein in any experiment simulating conditions on the early earth, and will therefore have no success in trying to reproduce the origin of life by simulating early earth conditions.

Prediction #10: Good evidence for psychic phenomena and the paranormal will continue to accumulate, with new types of paranormal phenomena appearing; but the majority of scientists will long continue to ignore such evidence. 

The evidence for psychic phenomena (such as ESP, apparitions and near-death experiences) is vast, but it has been almost totally ignored by mainstream scientists.  I predict that the majority of scientists will continue for many years in their "heads in the sand" attitude towards very important paranormal phenomena.  Such an attitude is caused by an entrenched belief system (strongly resembling a religion) that has become popular among scientists.  When entrenched belief systems have been discredited by observations, such belief systems often continue to persist for a long, long time, because of a kind of ideological inertia, in which people think to themselves, "I will keep believing as I have believed for so long" or "I will keep believing as my teachers taught." I predict that novel and unprecedented forms of paranormal phenomena will be observed in the next few decades, as has actually occurred during recent years (as shown in the 1500+ photos here, here, and here).  

Prediction #11: It will not be possible to enhance the human mind by adding new neurons or neuron-equivalents, through technology or genetic engineering, although it may be possible to enhance the human mind by some technique that has the effect of turning off some brain activity or reducing brain activity. 

Since the human brain is not the source of the human mind, there will be no successful attempts to increase the human mind by adding more neurons or (electronic neuron-equivalents). But it could be that the brain acts like a valve or limitation device, limiting human consciousness. Because of the latter possibility, it may be possible to enhance the human mind through some method that limits brain activity or turns off some of the neurons in our brain. Such a thing might be accomplished genetically, electronically or chemically. 

A Note to Future "Accuracy Checkers"

Let's suppose you are a person in the future (maybe a year or two from now) checking my list of predictions, and trying to find one that failed.  You might have little difficulty in seeming to find such a failure if you fall "hook, line and sinker" for some of the enormous amount of hype, exaggeration and misinformation that appears in the science literature, particularly in science popularization web sites.  As discussed at length here, there is an epidemic of exaggeration and unwarranted claims in the science world nowadays, much of it coming from university press offices which churn out press release headlines that do not actually match what was shown in the scientific study being discussed. In addition, a large fraction of scientific papers make causal claims that are not actually justified by their data.  So before citing some scientific paper that you think discredits one of the predictions here, ask yourself: did the paper really prove what is claimed in its title or in the headline of its press release?