The future will be a strange landscape
of sharp contrasts, where trends sometime move in opposite
directions, leaving results that are diametrically opposed. Let us
look at seven of these strange contrasts.
Our virtual worlds will get more
beautiful, but our real world will get more ugly.
Virtual worlds are the artificial
landscapes created by game designers and art designers working for
television and movies. A few decades ago the best virtual worlds
looked like crude cartoons, but progress in computer-generated
imagery has been breathtaking. Video games such as The Elder
Scrolls V: Sykrim and Fable II offer stunningly beautiful
vistas, and if you see the latest Pixar movie you may see even more
gorgeous make-believe landscapes. As computer technology improves,
these virtual worlds will get ever more ravishing.
But as our virtual worlds get more and
more beautiful, our real world will probably get more and more ugly.
Overpopulation, sprawl, deforestation, and pollution all will play a
part in decreasing the beauty of the natural world. We see an example
of this in the Alberta Tar Sands in Canada, where a huge lovely
natural area is being turned into something almost as ugly as a
moonscape.
There will be more forms of
synthetic life, but far fewer forms of natural life.
According to the
Wikipedia.org article on synthetic life, "In May 2010, Craig
Venter's group announced they had been able to assemble a complete
genome of millions of base pairs, insert it into a cell, and cause
that cell to start replicating." Scientists will no doubt make
many additional forms of synthetic life in the future.
But in coming
decades the total number of natural species will sharply decrease. It
is estimated that every day 100 species are being lost to
deforestation. The National Wildlife Federation has estimated that
27,000 species are becoming extinct every year. Global warming is
expected to increase the rate of species loss as more and more
species become extinct because their habitat has changed.
The human population will grow
higher and higher, but our resources to support it will grow lower
and lower.
The human population is expected to grow by billions in the coming decades.
Unfortunately, the earthly natural resources to support that
population seem to be growing ever smaller. We are using up our
reserves of oil, and may be near the peak of oil production; we may
have only several decades left of regular crude oil. Several experts
think we will hit Peak Coal in a few decades. We are depleting our
supplies of fresh water, and the fertility of our soil is gradually
declining. In addition, within a few decades we may soon run short
on numerous types of metals and minerals such as phosphorus.
We will have more droughts, but also
more floods due to rainfall.
Global
warming is not making every place hotter and drier. Instead global
warming is tending to make hot places hotter, and wet places wetter.
A recent scientific paper states, “Climate models project
increased aridity in the 21st century over most of Africa,
southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia,
and Southeast Asia. Regions like the United States have avoided
prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate
variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20–50
years.”
But other places that tend to get a lot
of rain will get even more rain. For example, last month a headline
on monsoon floods in India stated: “5000 Missing in India Floods:
Scientists Say Global Warming is to Blame.”
People will have more and more
information, but the world will be more and more confusing and hard
to understand.
Information is
supposed to make things easier to understand. If you don't understand
the Civil War, read a book or two on it, and you'll understand it.
But as we pile up more and more terabytes of information, the world
doesn't seem any easier to understand. The world seems to get more
and more complex and hard to understand. Even as our science
progresses, we add more and more baffling mysteries: black holes, the
Big Bang, quantum entanglement, and dark energy, to name a few.
We'll get more
effective ways of extending life, and also more effective ways of
destroying life.
Scientists are working on exciting life-extension technologies. They
know that as we age the units called telomeres at the ends of our
chromosomes grow shorter and shorter. Scientists think there may be
some way to stop these telomeres from shortening, and that may be the
key to extending the human lifespan. Scientists are also doing work
on stem cell research and artificial organs, which will offer hope
for increasing the human lifespan.
But as this work continues, scientists will also continue work on
artificial germs which could wipe out billions of us, drone aircraft
which can bring death instantaneously from the sky, and nuclear
weapons of increasing deadliness.
Our communication devices are getting ever more sophisticated, but our
messages are getting ever more vapid.
Back
in the time of Thomas Jefferson, people would use inkwells and quill
pens, but they would write long letters to each other with sentences
such as “It
suffices for us, if the moral and physical condition of our own
citizens qualifies them to select the able and good for the direction
of their government, with a recurrence of elections at such short
periods as will enable them to displace an unfaithful servant before
the mischief he meditates may be irremediable.”
But today the typical smartphone user does not write long letters, but
sends out a slew of vacant, vapid little text messages such as “OMG DID U C
HER? LOL”
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