I just saw The Hobbit: The
Desolation of Smaug on cable TV. It's the latest in the series
of movies inspired by J. R. R. Tolkien's epic trilogy The Lord of the
Rings. The Tolkien “franchise” is apparently alive and well,
with the expected elements such as dwarfish hobbits, giants, dragons,
wizards, and a magic ring.
If I recall correctly, the “Lord of the Rings”
stories are supposed to be set in a distant human past, long before
history began. But is there any way that something like the Tolkien
fictional world might actually be...our future? What kind of
strange future events might cause the world to end up in some state
rather like the “Middle Earth” depicted in the “Lord of the
Rings” series?
I can imagine some ways that
might come to pass. One contributing factor could be some kind of
genetic bifurcation or fission of the human species. According to a
Huffington Post article, “Researchers found that the shorter a
person was, the more likely they were to have a long life.” Other
studies show that tall people earn more money. So it might be that
one day, gene splicers offer parents a choice: you can have regular
children; you can have short children that live longer; or you can
have tall children that earn more money. A few decades after parents
have such a choice, we may see the human race splitting up into
different sub-species. There may be a sub-species of humans who are
very small, and another sub-species of humans that are very tall. It
could then end up being a little like “The Lord of the Rings,”
with its division of dwarfish hobbits, regular humans, and giants. Or
a nuclear war might produce mutations that cause the human race to
split up into different sub-species. Need some cute little pointed
ears? Some mutations will get you that.
But in order to have anything
like a Tolkienesque “Hobbit” future, you also need to get rid of
most of the trappings of modern civilization. It's okay to still have
cute little Hobbit houses, and some huge imposing stone buildings,
but we would have to lose most of the superhighways, the malls, and
the burger joints. But there's are several ways that might happen.
One possibility is global energy collapse. If we ever pretty much run
out of oil (as some Peak Oil theorists suggest), we might see a
social breakdown that might cause our car-based culture to collapse
in a tailspin. Another possibility is some kind of electromagnetic
pulse that wipes out the electrical grid. That could come from a big
solar flare, or from an enemy detonating a nuclear bomb way up in the
atmosphere. Or there might be a nuclear war that wipes out most of
humanity.
Of course, after such a
collapse it would probably be a good long time before things got really
Tolkienesque, and people went back to riding on horses, using swords,
and living in quaint little villages. But before all that long, you
might well get an American culture a lot more similar to the way
things were when the country was colonized by Europeans.
But what about the dragons
and strange monsters that are a mainstay of the “Lord of the Rings”
franchise? It's easy to imagine how that might arise. We simply need
to imagine some genetic experimentation getting out of control.
Imagine if a few decades from now biologists started to play around
with making new species by gene-splicing. They might be right in the
middle of that, when boom, society might collapse because of
an energy crisis, an electromagnetic pulse, or a nuclear war. The
weird creatures produced by the geneticists might then somehow get
released into the world, and start reproducing. The world might then
be overrun by various assorted species of monsters, some of which
could even be like dragons (although it's hard to imagine any
scenario by which you might end up with fire-breathing dragons). A
nuclear war might also produce mutations that would lead to strange
new species, some of which could be monstrous.
And why do we have to imagine
that the “monsters” are all biological? We can imagine some types
of runaway self-reproducing robots spreading across the land, with no
more government around to stop them. Such robots might function just
like various monsters out of the pages of Tolkien. What's the big
difference between being threatened by giant spiders and being
threatened by giant eight-legged robots that walk around like
spiders?
You've got to admit, I'm
starting to put together here an idea that some aspiring screenwriter
might make into a great script. When a screenwriter is pitching a
script, he always likes to have an “elevator pitch” he can use to
sum up the idea in 20 seconds – for example, “My script is
Titanic in outer space.” So here we have a nice potential
elevator pitch: “My script is Lord of the Rings in a post-apocalyptic future.”
But what about the wizards
that are a mainstay of the “Lord of the Rings” franchise? You
might say: there's no possible way to get that in a human
future. But that's not true. Let us simply remember Arthur C.
Clarke's famous statement that any sufficiently advanced technology
is indistinguishable from magic. A person who applies advanced
technology can easily seem like a wizard, as long as his observers
have no idea what the technology is or how it is produced.
We can imagine a Tolkienesque
future in which 99% of the human race knows nothing about science or
technology. But there may be a handful of people who still know how
to apply technology. Such rare technologists may start calling
themselves magicians or wonder workers, to instill awe in the average
human. They may start wearing robes and those big droopy wizard hats.
To the average person, they would seem just exactly like magical
wizards. But they would know they were not using magic, but simply
using science and technology.
So it is all too possible
that we might end up with a Tolkienesque “Hobbit” future with the
aroma of “Middle Earth,” in which strange monsters (electronic or
biological) roam the land, in which there are different flavors of
the human race with different heights, in which people with swords
ride around on horseback between quaint little villages, and in which
astonishing wizards work wonders that seem like magic to almost
everyone. But the golden magic ring? Forget about it; I can't think
of any way to fit that into a possible future.
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