One
day on the television news you hear about some new strain of flu
called H3N7. You don't pay any real attention, because the news
report mentions only a small number of deaths. But then over the next
few weeks you hear more and more news reporters talking about this
H3N7 strain. The reporters say that this new flu has spread to major
cities in the United States.
Not
very worried, you go on with your business without hardly thinking
about the issue. Then one day you notice that the news reporters seem
to be talking about almost nothing other than H3N7. Hundreds of
people are dropping dead because of this new strain. Scientists have
started to work on a vaccine, but they have just got started, and it
will be a long time before they are finished.
The
reporters tell you to always sneeze onto your shoulder, and to wash
your hands frequently. You start doing that. You take the subway to
work in New York City, and whenever you see someone sneezing or
coughing you move to a different part of the subway.
Before
long you hear that hundreds of people have died from the new flu
strain in New York City alone. You notice that many people on the
subway are starting to wear surgical masks. You wonder whether you
should do so also. But you figure that it's a rather timid thing to
do, and you notice that still most people are not wearing the masks.
So you decide not to wear one.
Soon
the death toll in New York City rises to the thousands. At about the
time when most of the people start wearing surgical masks on the
subway, you start wearing one too. Then you start seeing people
collapse on the street, and collapse in the subways. Now you decide
you will take no more subways until the H3N7 pandemic ends. You start
walking three miles to work every day.
The
death toll in New York City rises higher and higher. Before long,
more than 50,000 have died. Now you start wearing your surgical mask
everywhere, including all of the time you are at work. A while later
the death toll in New York City climbs to 200,000. You start wearing two
surgical masks, one on top of the other.
Eventually
the death toll in New York City climbs to more than 400,000. You
decide to take no more chances. You quit your job, and buy all the
food you can. It's hard to find much, because the stores have been
stripped clean. Then you go to your apartment, and vow to wait it out
there until the horrible pandemic is over.
The
next day you wake up in your apartment with chills and a horrible
headache. You use a thermometer to find out that your temperature is
103 degrees F. You look in the mirror, and notice your face is pale.
You are in the grip of the deadly flu. You slump against the wall,
and wonder what to do next.
Four Pandemics That Killed Many
Millions
The
fictional account above may sound like something that could never happen, but
it merely describes a disease pandemic, and there have been at least
four pandemics in history on the same scale and severity.
One
such pandemic was the Black Plague, which killed between 30 and 60
per cent of Europe's population. The medieval Europeans had no idea
that the disease was being spread by rat fleas, and it spread out of
control.
Another
such pandemic was the smallpox pandemic which spread to the New World
after Europeans arrived in the period after 1492. The natives of
North and South America had no resistance to this deadly disease, and
it spread like wildfire. It is estimated that some 90% of the
original population of North and South America died in the years
following 1492. Much of that was due to the ruthless subjugation and
maltreatment by European conquistadors and their successors, but a
large fraction died because of the pandemic.
In
1918 the world was struck by the worst pandemic of modern times. It
was originally called the Spanish Flu, although it probably did not
arise in Spain. It may have arisen in the filthy trenches of World
War I, where countless men were packed under miserable unsanitary
conditions. Regardless of how it started, it quickly spread around
the world. It is estimated that 500 million people were infected, and
that between 50 and 100 million people died. Many of the infected
died within two or three days. Luckily the outbreak did not last long
compared to other diseases such as AIDS. Some think that the virus
may have mutated to a less lethal strain.
One
might think that we no longer have to worry about pandemics on this
scale, because of the sophistication of modern medicine. But the
modern day AIDS epidemic proves otherwise. AIDS was first officially
detected in the early 1980's, and since then has spread to some 33
million people worldwide. Of these, some 25 million have died.
Nations have spent countless dollars over three decades in attempts
to find a cure and vaccine, but so far all that we have are various
expensive treatments that greatly slow the course of the disease.
Why the Risk of Pandemics May
Increase
There
are several reasons for believing that the risk of global pandemics
may increase. The reasons are these:
- An increasing number of people across the globe are engaging in air travel, which helps to spread infectious diseases. Around 1950 if some person in Shanghai developed some rare new strain of infectious flu, the outbreak would stay fairly localized, as virtually no Chinese were engaging in international air travel at that time. Now because of increased affluence in increasingly prosperous countries such as China, there would be a much higher chance of the flu carrier traveling on a plane to some other country and spreading the disease.
- As medical science advances, there may be an increased chance that some hostile nation deliberately creates an outbreak, after using some technology such as gene-splicing. We know that biological warfare was extensively used by the Japanese during World War II. It is estimated that very many thousands of Chinese died as a result of biological warfare launched by imperial Japan. A modern nation or a well-funded terrorist group might one day put together some laboratories and look for a way to create a new killer strain that might spread uncontrollably. The Soviet Union worked extensively on biological weapons in secret, even after signing a treaty banning such weapons. We have no idea whether the frightening products of these labors have been passed on to terrorists or to nations such as North Korea.
- In 2011 it was reported that a Dutch researcher in Rotterdam, Netherlands had created an artificial version of the H5N1 flu virus that was genetically modified to be extremely dangerous. Supposedly the modified version was so dangerous it could wipe out half of the world population if unleashed.
- Global warming may cause the appearance of new diseases. For example, it is known that mosquitoes can greatly increase the spread of deadly diseases such as West Nile disease. All the increased flooding from global warming will create many new pools of water in various spots across the world, and mosquitoes thrive in such spots.
- Some strains of disease are getting increasingly resistant to antibiotics.
- One of the scientists who claims to have recently discovered a trace of alien life in the upper atmosphere is worried that some of those alien microbes may fall to the earth and cause a horrifying mass pandemic.
How to Have a Pleasant Pandemic
By a “pleasant
pandemic” I simply mean a pandemic in which neither you nor your
family get sick. Here are some tips to follow that will reduce your
chances of being infected in the next great pandemic. Some of these
tips are things you should be doing now. Others are tips you only
need to follow once a pandemic starts brewing.
- Get all of the recommended vaccinations for your children. The most basic way to protect your children is to make sure they have all the vaccinations recommended by the Center for Disease Control. Do not make the mistake of thinking that you can skip this for just your child, because everyone else is getting these vaccinations. Lots of other parents think exactly the same thing, which means there is a real risk of your children getting a disease if you fail to get the vaccination.
- Ask your doctor to check whether you need any new vaccinations. By removing yourself as a possible carrier, you are improving the safety for your own child.
- Wash your hands frequently, particularly after returning to your home from outside. A flu virus can spread rapidly through a means such as this: a sick person touches his nose or lips, and gets germs on his hands; that person then touches a surface such as a door knob or subway rail; you then touch the same surface and get the same germs on your hands; you then touch your nose or lips and bring the germs into your body. You can help minimize the chance of this transmission by washing your hands frequently, particularly after returning from outside. You can conveniently wash your hands in a subway, mall, or office by carrying a small bottle of hand sanitizer. Just put a few drops on your hands, rub your hands thoroughly, and wait until they are dry.
- Avoid touching your nose or mouth with your hands while you are outside, unless you wash your hands first If your nose itches, don't use your fingers to scratch it. Use the middle of your arm. The middle of your arm will not have touched any surfaces during the time you were outside, so it will be relatively free of germs.
- Try not to let your hands touch commonly touched surfaces. You can assume that there are many germs on commonly touched surfaces, so you wish to avoid them. Let's take the example of a public bathroom. If there is a door knob, it will probably have many germs. You can avoid touching the knob when you enter the bathroom by waiting for someone else to go in first, and quickly follow them in; or you can simply use the knob and wash your hands immediately after. When you leave the bathroom, you can either wait for someone else to open the door and quickly follow them out, or you can grab a paper towel and wrap that for a second around the door knob.
- Cough
or sneeze into your shoulder, rather than using your hands to block
your coughing or sneezing.
While walking around outside you may have got other people's germs
on your hands, and by sneezing or coughing into your hands, you may
be helping such germs into your body.
- If
a flu pandemic is spreading, avoid crowds.
One way to do this is to avoid going to work during rush hour.
Other ways to do this include avoiding shopping when there are large
crowds, avoiding theater events and sporting events, and avoiding
large-crowd public events such as parades and New Years Day
celebrations.
- If
a flu pandemic is spreading, wear a surgical mask or dust mask while you are in
crowds.
No matter how carefully you follow the advice above, you won't be
protected if you are in a crowded train, and the person next to you
starts sneezing. A sneeze is a remarkably effective way to transmit
germs. So if a very serious flu pandemic is spreading, wear a
surgical mask or dust mask in places such as trains and train stations.
- If
you are in a crowd near someone who is sneezing or coughing,
immediately cover your nose and mouth with your shoulder, and hurry
to ten feet away.
This is a case such as when you are sitting in a subway and someone
a few away sneezes or coughs. Immediately lower your head to the
left, placing your nose and mouth next to your shoulder, and walk
ten feet away.
- In
a train, theater, or sports arena, try to sit 10 feet away from
strangers.
No matter how carefully you try to move away from a sneezing
passenger in a train, you may breathe in some of his germs. It is
best to sit ten feet away from any stranger, when this is practical.
- Avoid
promiscuous sexual activity.
Because some pandemics are transmitted through sexual contact, it is
a good idea to limit your sexual partners, ideally to a very small
number.
- Use
disinfectant wipes on your door knobs, cell phones, and shopping carts.
Germs tend to accumulate on cell phones, door knobs, and the push
handles of shopping carts. You can reduce this risk by wiping them
down with germ-killing disinfectant wipes.
- Avoid
shaking hands with strangers.
When meeting someone at an office, a salute and a smile is an
alternative gesture of friendliness and respect.
- Press
elevator buttons with your elbow or a pen.
Going into an office building and pressing the elevator buttons with
your fingers is like shaking hands with 30 strangers.
- Use
stairs rather than elevators.
If you are going up several floors in an elevator, you are
basically trapped if someone starts sneezing or coughing. Better to
use the stairs and avoid the risk entirely. Stair climbing is also
great aerobic exercise.
- Consume
foods and supplements which boost your immune system.
Eating lots of fresh vegetables and fruit can boost your immune
system, which make it less likely that you catch any disease
spreading in a pandemic. Among vegetables, garlic is supposedly the
most effective at boosting the immune system. To boost your immune
system, you can also take a daily multivitamin tablet that includes
vitamin C and zinc, or swallow a garlic tablet.
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