We are currently making great progress in artificial intelligence and automation. Moore's Law is the rule that the number of components that can be placed on a circuit board doubles about every two years. Assuming that Moore's Law holds true in the next few decades, we can imagine that by some time within the next hundred years robots may have intelligence equal to or greater than the current intelligence of human beings.
Does that mean that robots
are likely to take over the planet within 100 years? Not at all.
There are two reasons why it is rather unlikely that robots will
become the rulers of the planet within the next 100 years.
The first reason is that
it is quite possible that humans themselves may become smarter within
the next fifty years or so. We are learning how to tinker with our
own genes. Before long, we may discover genes that can be added or
tweaked to give human beings more intelligence. So if we imagine very
brainy robots inhabiting our planet at the end of the century, we can
imagine that their rivals will not be people as intelligent as us,
but perhaps people much smarter than we are.
So let us imagine it is
the year 2100. The world is filled with millions or billions of
extremely smart robots. But there are also many people in the world
with IQ's higher than 200. Which is likely to get the upper hand –
the robots or the supermen?
Some would argue that
robots would have the upper hand, because humans have only a little
extra room to store additional brain cells, but it is easy to make a
robot that has twice as much of a CPU, or five times as much, or ten
or twenty times as much. Imagine you were a master genetic engineer
who can tinker with the arrangement of the human body. You couldn't
simply design human beings with heads twice as big, because the head
has to fit through the narrow slot of a woman's birth canal when a
baby is born. So it seems we can't design humans that are, say, ten
times smarter, unless we completely redesign the human body, which
might be a nightmare.
For robots, there is no
such limitation. A robot can be almost any size or shape. Even if a
humanoid appearance is chosen, the chest of the humanoid robot can be
used to store additional CPU units. A robot can also have a
non-humanoid appearance. If the robot looks something a battle tank,
there will be abundant room to store large CPU units. So we can
imagine robots with thinking units weighing 100 times more than a
man's brain. That would seem to give robots the upper hand.
But humans do have two
very substantial advantages which may assure their predominance over
robots for at least a century. The first advantage is that it is
easier for humans to move around, without being tethered to any power
cord, and without requiring any battery replacement or battery
recharging. Imagine an extremely intelligent robot of the year 2100.
How would such a robot get around? Today almost all robots need to be
plugged in to an electrical source. Is there any way that a robot
could be able to move around independently as a human does?
We can imagine
solar-powered robots like the Curiosity robot landed on Mars. But
solar power can only provide limited power for any robot that is the
size of a car or smaller, and the Curiosity robot is a slow-moving
sluggish thing compared to a human being. Solar-powered robots may be
quite useful, but are unlikely to be mobile enough to gain dominance
over the human race.
We can also imagine
battery powered robots which recharge themselves using the electrical
grid. But that would probably not be sufficient to give these robots
the power to take over in a world in which humans control the
electrical grid.
Here is another reason why
it would seem very difficult for robots to take over the planet
within a century: for a long time it is going to be very hard for robots to self-reproduce (but it is very easy for humans to reproduce).
An advanced robot is likely to be made from components that are
manufactured in many places around the world through highly
specialized tools and manufacturing processes. It is hard to imagine
a robot within the next 100 years having the ability to make a copy
of itself from metals and raw materials that can be scavenged outside
of a factory. If robots are not able to independently self-reproduce in the next
100 years, they are unlikely on their own to duplicate themselves
to reach a population level at which they can dominate us. We humans will still be
in charge of how many of them there are. By reducing their growth,
we can presumably keep our position as the lords of the planet, for
quite a few decades to come.
However, centuries from
now this situation may change. Robots may well acquire all the
mobility advantages of humans, and may well gain the power to
reproduce themselves even faster than people can reproduce
themselves.
If that ever happens, our
days as lords of the planet may be over.
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